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Author  |
Trnka, M.; Feng, S.; Semenov, M.A.; Olesen, J.E.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Roetter, R.P.; Semeradova, D.; Klem, K.; Huang, W.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Meitner, J.; Balek, J.; Havlik, P.; Buntgen, U. |
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Title |
Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Science Advances |
Abbreviated Journal |
Sci. Adv. |
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Volume |
5 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
eaau2406 |
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Keywords |
climate-change impacts; sub-saharan africa; atmospheric co2; crop; yields; drought; agriculture; variability; irrigation; adaptation; carbon |
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Abstract |
Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near- simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas. |
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2020-02-14 |
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English |
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2375-2548 |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5227 |
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Author |
Twardy, S. |
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Title |
Contamination of surface water bodies with biogenic substances, taking into account the impact of agriculture in the Western Carpathians |
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Conference Article |
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Year |
2012 |
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CropM |
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Baltic Deal at Malopolska - training workshops for counselors within the Baltic Deal project. Agricultural Advisory Centre Malopolska. Karniowice, Poland., 2012-07-25 to 2012-07-25 |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2861 |
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Author |
Twardy, S. |
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Title |
The ecological potential – sustainable development of rural areas in the Carpathians |
Type |
Conference Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
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LiveM; CropM |
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Third International Mountain Forum entitled Innovation in Mountainous Regions. Zakopane, Poland., 2012-10-10 to 2012-10-12 |
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no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2862 |
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Author |
Twardy, S. |
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Title |
The usefulness of the research results conducted on the permanent grasslands for carrying out the pro-environmental management in mountain areas |
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Conference Article |
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2013 |
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CropM |
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Priorities of sustainable rural development 2014-2020 in the light of scientific research. Institute of Technology and Life Sciences at Falenty, Poland., 2013-04-25 to 2013-04-26 |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2863 |
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Author |
Twardy, S.; Kopacz, M. |
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Title |
Comparison of Concentrations and Loads of Macronutrients Brought with Precipitation and Leaching from the Soil Profile |
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Conference Article |
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Year |
2014 |
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Keywords |
LiveM; CropM |
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VII Conference on Environmental Protection and Engineering - Sustainable Development held at AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow, 2014-06-26 to 2014-06-27 |
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Notes |
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Approved |
no |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2865 |
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