Abstract: Following a MACSUR Workshop a joint working paper preliminary titled “More than a change in crop production: metrics and approaches to understand the impacts of extreme events on food security” is now in an advanced stage. A conference paper based on an M.Sc. thesis by Christoph Buschmann, titled “A model-based economic assessment of future climate variability impacts on global agricultural markets” has been presented and the International Conference of Agricultural Economists, 2015. We are working on a journal publication at the moment. Based on a B.Sc. thesis by Patrick Jeetze, we have submitted an abstract and held a presentation at the GlobalFood Symposium 2017, 28-29 April 2017 at Georg-August-University of Goettingen, Germany. Title: “Implications of future climate variability on food security: A model-based assessment of climate-induced crop price volatility impacts” We are currently working on a journal publication on this. Finally, we contributed one section to MACSUR's Research Gap Report (H0.1-D).

Abstract: High temperature events can have a large negative effect on crop yields, and the effects of these events are strongly dependent on not only the maximum temperature but also on the length and timing of these heat stress events. In future climate the likelihood of these types of events are expected to increase and thus make it crucial to be able to correctly assess not only the effect of changes in mean temperature but also the effect of changes in climate extremes. Crop models are often employed to predict yield responses to a changing climate, and traditionally they have not included the effect of heat stress events. In recent years more and more models have come to include the effect of high temperature stress on crop yield.  Here we implement three of these approaches (APSIM, GAEZ and CERES-Wheat) into the Crop-DGVM: LPJ-GUESS and results from an initial sensitivity analysis are presented. Results show a large difference in year to year variability in simulated yield for the different approaches, and also on differences in sensitivity in relation to temperature change. No Label

Abstract: The first TradeM workshop was held at Haifa University (Israel), 3-5 March 2013. It was a  state-of-the-art Workshop ‘Economic Modelling on Agriculture with Climate Change for  Food Security’. Sixteen papers are presented, following a call for abstracts submitted in  December 2012.  Presented, reviewed and discussed models, their inputs, outputs and main results of  case-study analyses let indicate of how the model can be used to analyze the  impacts of climate change on food security, how the model can contribute to, and  benefit from other economic and/or crop and livestock models and what input is  needed from CropM and LiveM. There were explored ideas for closer integration and  linkage between agriculture and economic models and between economic models at  different levels, addressing issues of model structure, scale and data processing. Focus was  on model comparison, gap analysis, scientific advancements and improvements. We also  addressed the key challenges of the economic models (macro- versus micro-economics;  uncertainty versus risks; variability and distribution), and identified ways to cope with  scaling, uncertainty, risks. The workshop let identify the requirements from CropM and  LiveM, find policy questions that MACSUR is going to address, start with the content of the  case studies and plan for publication of scientific papers.  The sessions were broadcast live via the internet. Twenty-four registered participants and  about 65 local visitors attended the workshop.This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label