Records |
Author |
Lotze-Campen, H.; von Lampe, M.; Kyle, P.; Fujimori, S.; Havlik, P.; van Meijl, H.; Hasegawa, T.; Popp, A.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; Willenbockel, D.; Wise, M. |
Title |
Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
103-116 |
Keywords |
energy demand; agricultural markets; general equilibrium modeling; partial equilibrium modeling; model comparison; greenhouse-gas emissions; land-use; energy; productivity; scenarios; policies; capture; storage; system |
Abstract |
Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high-emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise. |
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0169-5150 |
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CropM, TradeM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4532 |
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Author |
Leclère, D.; Jayet, P.-A.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. |
Title |
Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Ecological Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Econ. |
Volume |
87 |
Issue |
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Pages |
1-14 |
Keywords |
climate change; agriculture; europe; residual impact; autonomous adaptation; water use efficiency; modeling; land-use; integrated assessment; future scenarios; change impacts; model; vulnerability; performance; emissions; nitrogen; lessons |
Abstract |
The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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ISSN |
0921-8009 |
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TradeM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4606 |
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Author |
Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K.; Thomson, A. |
Title |
Meeting the radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways in a world with agricultural climate impacts |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Earth’s Future |
Abbreviated Journal |
Earth’s Future |
Volume |
2 |
Issue |
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Pages |
83-98 |
Keywords |
integrated assessment; climate impacts; emissions mitigation; representative concentration pathway; land-use; carbon; stabilization; cmip5 |
Abstract |
This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6W/m(2) in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields. |
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2328-4277 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4531 |
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Author |
Kraus, D.; Weller, S.; Klatt, S.; Haas, E.; Wassmann, R.; Kiese, R.; Butterbach-Bahl, K. |
Title |
A new LandscapeDNDC biogeochemical module to predict CH4 and N2O emissions from lowland rice and upland cropping systems |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Plant and Soil |
Abbreviated Journal |
Plant Soil |
Volume |
386 |
Issue |
1-2 |
Pages |
125-149 |
Keywords |
methane; nitrous oxide; paddy rice; maize; model; nitrous-oxide emissions; process-based model; methane transport capacity; process-oriented model; pnet-n-dndc; forest soils; paddy soils; sensitivity-analysis; residue management; organic-matter |
Abstract |
Replacing paddy rice by upland systems such as maize cultivation is an on-going trend in SE Asia caused by increasing water scarcity and higher demand for meat. How such land management changes will feedback on soil C and N cycles and soil greenhouse gas emissions is not well understood at present. A new LandscapeDNDC biogeochemical module was developed that allows the effect of land management changes on soil C and N cycle to be simulated. The new module is applied in combination with further modules simulating microclimate and crop growth and evaluated against observations from field experiments. The model simulations agree well with observed dynamics of CH (4) emissions in paddy rice depending on changes in climatic conditions and agricultural management. Magnitude and peak emission periods of N (2) O from maize cultivation are simulated correctly, though there are still deficits in reproducing day-to-day dynamics. These shortcomings are most likely related to simulated soil hydrology and may only be resolved if LandscapeDNDC is coupled to more complex hydrological models. LandscapeDNDC allows for simulation of changing land management practices in SE Asia. The possibility to couple LandscapeDNDC to more complex hydrological models is a feature needed to better understand related effects on soil-atmosphere-hydrosphere interactions. |
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0032-079x |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4530 |
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Author |
Klein, D.; Luderer, G.; Kriegler, E.; Strefler, J.; Bauer, N.; Leimbach, M.; Popp, A.; Dietrich, J.P.; Humpenöder, F.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Edenhofer, O. |
Title |
The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Climatic Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Change |
Volume |
123 |
Issue |
3-4 |
Pages |
705-718 |
Keywords |
land-use change; bio-energy; greenhouse gases; carbon-dioxide; climate-change; constraints; emissions; economics; storage; costs |
Abstract |
This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS. |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0165-0009 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4529 |
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