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Author  |
Nieróbca, A. |
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Title |
The regional trends in maize yield in Poland and its prediction according regional GLOBIOM –CAPRI baseline analysis for 2010, 2030 and 2050 |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-40 |
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Abstract |
The increase of maize production in Polish agriculture is considered as one of the indicators showing temporal climate change impact. The sowing area of grain maize in Poland increased from 152 thousand hectares in 2000 to 614 thousand hectares in 2013. In the same time, the area of maize production for forage in Poland has increased from 162 to 462 thousand hectares. There is observed increase of yield level but the regional differentiation of this trend is also visible. In the paper we discuss the temporal regional trends in maize yield in Poland connected to the limitation factors (soil, climate, fertilisation) and prognosis for further climate change impact using GLOBIOM-CAPRI regional simulations. The data for the analysis of regional trends for maize production level in 16th regions in Poland (NUTS2) were taken from National Statistical Offices Reports. The GLOBIOM-CAPRI regional simulations for baseline analysis 2010, 2030 and 2050 were obtained from MASCUR knowledge-hab evaluation exercises. As a limitation factors for of maize yield we considered the index for suitable soil and climate suitability index for climate developed in Poland and fertilisation. We have identified that observed positive trend in yield level at NUTS2 is correlated with the climate suitability index and level of NPK fertilisation, whilst there is no statistical relations with soil quality index. The GLOBIOM –CAPRI regional simulation for 2030 shows that the maize yield in Poland will further increase and it can be explained by realisation of existing trends. In simulations for the baseline 2050 year there is visible negative trend in yield level in some regions, where even in current climate there is high probability of deficit precipitation (eg. Wielkopolskia region). No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2155 |
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Author |
Nosalewicz, A. |
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Title |
The effect of combination of drought and heat stresses on plant transpiration and photosynthesis |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-41 |
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Expected increasing intensity and frequency of droughts with climate changes is often accompanied by increased air temperature resulting in decreased stability of crop yields. Owing to the complex nonlinear interactions between a plant and its environment, it is difficult to evaluate the effect of multi-stress on plant functioning.The main aim of presented research was to analyse spring wheat response to combination of two abiotic stresses: drought and heat.The growth chamber experiment with controlled environment was conducted on spring wheat growing in cylindrical soil columns. Four treatments were compared: control with optimum soil moisture and air temperature (C), heat wave (HW) – as C but with temperature elevated up to 34°C for four days at flowering, drought (D) with soil water content decreasing from initially optimum level to water deficit (pF> 3.4) at flowering, drought and heat wave (DHW) – the combination of two stresses .The results indicated different course of leaf transpiration and photosynthesis rates in analysed treatments in response to soil water content. HW treatment during period of increased temperature were characterised by significantly increased average transpiration as compared to all other treatments. However photosynthesis rate in this treatment were slightly lower than in control plants. Comparison of D and DHW treatments shows similarities in the trends of transpiration increase with increasing soil moisture with some offset to lower soil moisture in DHW resulting from higher evapotranspiration. Photosynthesis rate showed relatively large variation characterised by steeper increase with increasing soil water content in D as compared to DHW. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2156 |
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Özkan, S. |
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Title |
The greenhouse gas emissions intensity of herds with mastitis |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-42 |
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Mastitis is an inflammatory disease of milking cows, causing production and economic losses in dairy farms. The main pathogens causing majority of the intramammary infections are Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus dysgalactiae, Escherichia coli and coagulase-negative Staphylococci. Here, we analysed the effect of mastitis on herd parameters such as milk yield, feed intake, replacement rate, gross margin and greenhouse gas emissions. The data were collected from the Norwegian Dairy Herd Recording System between 2010 and 2012. The farm data were recorded from 20 farms in Norway, based on health, fertility and breeding characteristics. SimHerd, a computer simulation model was used to estimate the impact of the observed levels of mastitis on herd parameters which were then fed into a whole farm model, HolosNor, to calculate the greenhouse gas emissions on the farm. The standard values provided in the SimHerd except for mastitis occurrence were applied in the scenario simulations. A further study is planned to parameterize each herd with specific herd characteristics in SimHerd so that herd specific estimates of the effect of mastitis on greenhouse gas emissions can be performed. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2157 |
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Author |
Özkan, Ş.; Ahmadi, B.V.; Bonesmo, H.; Østerås, O.; Stott, A.; Harstad, O.M. |
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Title |
Impact of animal health on greenhouse gas emissions |
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2015 |
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Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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6 |
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01 |
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24-25 |
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dairy; GHG emissions; cull rate; health; HolosNor |
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2040-4700 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4573 |
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Author |
Özkan, Ş.; Farquharson, R.J.; Hill, J.; Malcolm, B. |
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Title |
A stochastic analysis of the impact of input parameters on profit of Australian pasture-based dairy farms under variable carbon price scenarios |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Science & Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental Science & Policy |
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48 |
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163-171 |
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Keywords |
carbon tax; operating profit; stochastic dominance; dairy; feeding system; mitigation; cows; systems; efficiency; risk |
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The imposition of a carbon tax in the economy will have indirect impacts on dairy farmers in Australia. Although there is a great deal of information available regarding mitigation strategies both in Australia and internationally, there seems to be a lack of research investigating the variable prices of carbon-based emissions on dairy farm operating profits in Australia. In this study, a stochastic analysis comparing the uncertainty in income in response to different prices on carbon-based emissions was conducted. The impact of variability in pasture consumption and variable prices of concentrates and hay on farm profitability was also investigated. The two different feeding systems examined were a ryegrass pasture-based system (RM) and a complementary forage-based system (CF). Imposing a carbon price ($20-$60) and not changing the systems reduced the farm operating profits by 28.4% and 25.6% in the RM and CF systems, respectively compared to a scenario where no carbon price was imposed. Different farming businesses will respond to variability in the rapidly changing operating environment such as fluctuations in pasture availability, price of purchased feeds and price of milk or carbon emissions differently. Further, in case there is a carbon price imposed for GHG emissions emanated from dairy farming systems, changing from pasture-based to more complex feeding systems incorporating home-grown double crops may reduce the reductions in farm operating profits. There is opportunity for future studies to focus on the impacts of different mitigation strategies and policy applications on farm operating profits. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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1462-9011 |
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LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4574 |
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