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Havlík, P.E.S., S. Fuss, D. Leclere, M. Obersteiner, A. Mosnier, H. Valin, N. Khabarov |
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Linking bio-physical, bottom-up and top-do wn economic models to analyze climate change impacts and adaptation on Austrian agriculture |
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Conference Article |
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2013 |
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TradeM |
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MACSUR TradeM workshop: Exploring new ideas for trade and agriculture model integration for assessing the impacts of climate change on food security, The Natural Resource and Environmental Research Center (NRERC), University of Haifa, Israel, 2013-03-03 t |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2468 |
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Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W. |
| Title |
A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Geoscientific Model Development |
Abbreviated Journal |
Geosci. Model Dev. |
| Volume |
6 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
1689-1703 |
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dangerous anthropogenic interference; vegetation model; carbon-cycle; emissions; targets |
| Abstract |
In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (Delta T-glob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of Delta T-glob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of Delta T-glob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs’ climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between Delta T-glob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations. |
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1991-9603 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4490 |
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Heinschink, K.; Lembacher, F.; Sinabell, F.; Trible, C. |
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Crop production costs in Austria: Comparison of simulated results and farm observations |
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Conference Article |
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2016 |
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Jahrbuch der ÖGA |
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26 |
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33-34 |
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26. Jahrestagung der Österreichischen Gesellschaft für Agrarökonomie, 2016-09-15 to 2016-09-16, Vienna, Austria |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5025 |
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Hidy, D.; Balogh, J.; Churkina, G.; Haszpra, L.; Horváth, F.; Ittzés, P.; Ittzés, D.; Ma, S.; Nagy, Z.; Pintér, K.; Barcza, Z. |
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Structural development and web service based sensitivity analysis of the Biome-BGC MuSo model |
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Conference Article |
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2014 |
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LiveM |
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European GeoSciences Union (EGU), General Assembly 2014, 2014-04-28 to 2014-05-02 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2475 |
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Hidy, D.; Barcza, Z.; Haszpra, L.; Churkina, G.; Pintér, K.; Nagy, Z. |
| Title |
Development of the Biome-BGC model for simulation of managed herbaceous ecosystems |
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Journal Article |
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2012 |
Publication |
Ecological Modelling |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Model. |
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226 |
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99-119 |
| Keywords |
biogeochemical model; biome-bgc; grassland; management; soil moisture; bayesian calibration; carbon flux model; regional applications; bayesian calibration; use efficiency; general-model; exchange; balance; climate; grassland; variability |
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Apart from measurements, numerical models are the most convenient instruments to analyze the carbon and water balance of terrestrial ecosystems and their interactions with changing environmental conditions. The process-based Biome-BGC model is widely used to simulate the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen within the vegetation, litter, and soil of unmanaged terrestrial ecosystems. Considering herbaceous vegetation related simulations with Biome-BGC, soil moisture and growing season control on ecosystem functioning is inaccurate due to the simple soil hydrology and plant phenology representation within the model. Consequently, Biome-BGC has limited applicability in herbaceous ecosystems because (1) they are usually managed; (2) they are sensitive to soil processes, most of all hydrology; and (3) their carbon balance is closely connected with the growing season length. Our aim was to improve the applicability of Biome-BGC for managed herbaceous ecosystems by implementing several new modules, including management. A new index (heatsum growing season index) was defined to accurately estimate the first and the final days of the growing season. Instead of a simple bucket soil sub-model, a multilayer soil sub-model was implemented, which can handle the processes of runoff, diffusion and percolation. A new module was implemented to simulate the ecophysiological effect of drought stress on plant mortality. Mowing and grazing modules were integrated in order to quantify the functioning of managed ecosystems. After modifications, the Biome-BGC model was calibrated and validated using eddy covariance-based measurement data collected in Hungarian managed grassland ecosystems. Model calibration was performed based on the Bayes theorem. As a result of these developments and calibration, the performance of the model was substantially improved. Comparison with measurement-based estimate showed that the start and the end of the growing season are now predicted with an average accuracy of 5 and 4 days instead of 46 and 85 days as in the original model. Regarding the different sites and modeled fluxes (gross primary production, total ecosystem respiration, evapotranspiration), relative errors were between 18-60% using the original model and 10-18% using the developed model; squares of the correlation coefficients were between 0.02-0.49 using the original model and 0.50-0.81 using the developed model. (c) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0304-3800 |
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LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4472 |
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