|
Records |
Links |
|
Author ![sorted by Author field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
Sakschewski, B.; von Bloh, W.; Huber, V.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A. |
![goto web page (via DOI) doi](img/doi.gif)
|
|
Title |
Feeding 10 billion people under climate change: How large is the production gap of current agricultural systems |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Ecological Modelling |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Model. |
|
|
Volume |
288 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
103-111 |
|
|
Keywords |
Population growth; Food production; Dynamic global vegetation model; Climate change; LPJmL; stomatal conductance; population-growth; food-production; co2; enrichment; model; photosynthesis; scenarios; leaves; plants; yield |
|
|
Abstract |
The human population is projected to reach more than 10 billion in the year 2100. Together with changing consumption pattern, population growth will lead to increasing food demand. The question arises whether or not the Earth is capable of fulfilling this demand. In this study, we approach this question by estimating the carrying capacity of current agricultural systems (K-C), which does not measure the maximum number of people the Earth is likely to feed in the future, but rather allows for an indirect assessment of the increases in agricultural productivity required to meet demands. We project agricultural food production under progressing climate change using the state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL, and input data of 3 climate models. For 1990 to 2100 the worldwide annual caloric yield of the most important 11 crop types is simulated. Model runs with and without elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are performed in order to investigate CO2 fertilization effects. Country-specific per-capita caloric demands fixed at current levels and changing demands based on future GDP projections are considered to assess the role of future dietary shifts. Our results indicate that current population projections may considerably exceed the maximum number of people that can be fed globally if climate change is not accompanied by significant changes in land use, agricultural efficiencies and/or consumption pathways. We estimate the gap between projected population size and K-C to reach 2 to 6.8 billion people by 2100. We also present possible caloric self-supply changes between 2000 and 2100 for all countries included in this study. The results show that predominantly developing countries in tropical and subtropical regions will experience vast decreases of self-supply. Therefore, this study is important for planning future large-scale agricultural management, as well as the critical assessment of population projections, which should take food-mediated climate change feedbacks into account |
|
|
Address |
2016-10-31 |
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
0304-3800 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4806 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author ![sorted by Author field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
Saetnan, E.; Kipling, P.; Scollan, D.; Bartley, D.; Bellocchi, G.; Hutchings, J.; Dalgaard, T.; van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A. |
|
|
Title |
MACSUR LiveM – a knowledge-hub for integrated modelling of climate change impacts on livestock production systems: lessons learned and future developments |
Type |
Conference Article |
|
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
|
Abbreviated Journal |
|
|
|
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
|
|
Keywords |
LiveM |
|
|
Abstract |
|
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
Livestock, Climate Change and Food Security, Madrid, Spain, 2014-05-19 to 2014-05-20 |
|
|
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2781 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author ![sorted by Author field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ferrise, R.; Rötter, R. |
![find record details (via OpenURL) openurl](img/xref.gif)
|
|
Title |
Concepts and methods developed for probabilistic evaluation of a number of alternative adaptation options |
Type |
Report |
|
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
|
|
|
Volume |
6 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
D-C4.5.1 |
|
|
Keywords |
|
|
|
Abstract |
The purpose of this document is to define the protocol for a second study (IRS2) based on impact response surfaces (IRSs) in the frame of CropM/WP4. General considerations of IRS construction are described in the protocol developed for Phase I of the IRS analysis (IRS1)Access to the full document is restricted to MACSUR members until 2015-11-01. No Label |
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2105 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author ![sorted by Author field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ferrise, R.; Rodríguez, A.; Lorite, I.J.; Tao, F.; Pirttioja, N.; Fronzek, S.; Palosuo, T.; Carter, T.R.; Bindi, M.; Höhn, J.G.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Trnka, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Baranowski, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Deligios, P.A.U.-, P.H.; Minet, J.; Montesino, M.; Porter, J.; Recio, J.; Ruget, F.; Sanz, A.; Steinmetz, Z.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Ventrella, D.; Wit, A.D.; Rötter, R.P. |
|
|
Title |
Wheat yield potential in Europe under climate change explored by adaptation response surfaces |
Type |
Conference Article |
|
Year |
2016 |
Publication |
|
Abbreviated Journal |
|
|
|
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
|
|
Keywords |
|
|
|
Abstract |
|
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
Montpellier (France) |
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
6th AgMIP Global Workshop, 2016-06-28 to 2016-06-30, Montpellier, France |
|
|
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4886 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author ![sorted by Author field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ferrise, R.; Rodríguez, A.; Lorite, I.J.; Tao, F.; Pirttioja, N.; Fronzek, S.; Palosuo, T.; Carter, T.R.; Bindi, M.; Höhn, J.G.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Trnka, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Baranowski, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Deligios, P.; Havlinka, P.; Minet, J.; Montesino, M.; Porter, J.; Recio, J.; Ruget, F.; Sanz, A.; Steinmetz, Z.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Ventrella, D.; Wit, A.D.; Rötter, R.P. |
![find record details (via OpenURL) openurl](img/xref.gif)
|
|
Title |
An ensemble of projections of wheat adaptation to climate change in europe analyzed with impact response surfaces |
Type |
Conference Article |
|
Year |
2016 |
Publication |
|
Abbreviated Journal |
|
|
|
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
|
|
Keywords |
|
|
|
Abstract |
|
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
Berlin (Germany) |
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
International Crop Modelling Symposium iCROPM 2016, 2016-05-15 to 2016-05-17, Berlin, Germany |
|
|
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4924 |
|
Permanent link to this record |