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Schönhart, M.; Schauppenlehner, T.; Kuttner, M.; Kirchner, M.; Schmid, E. |
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Title |
Climate change impacts on farm production, landscape appearance, and the environment: Policy scenario results from an integrated field-farm-landscape model in Austria |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Systems |
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145 |
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Pages |
39-50 |
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Keywords |
Integrated land use modeling; Climate change impacts; Mitigation; Adaptation; Field-farm-landscape; Environment; agricultural landscapes; land-use; netherlands; adaptation; indicators; management; responses |
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Abstract |
Climate change is among the major drivers of agricultural land use change and demands autonomous farm adaptation as well as public mitigation and adaptation policies. In this article, we present an integrated land use model (ILM) mainly combining a bio-physical model and a bio-economic farm model at field, farm and landscape levels. The ILM is applied to a cropland dominated landscape in Austria to analyze impacts of climate change and mitigation and adaptation policy scenarios on farm production as well as on the abiotic environment and biotic environment. Changes in aggregated total farm gross margins from three climate change scenarios for 2040 range between + 1% and + 5% without policy intervention” and compared to a reference situation under the current climate. Changes in aggregated gross margins are even higher if adaptation policies are in place. However, increasing productivity from climate change leads to deteriorating environmental conditions such as declining plant species richness and landscape appearance. It has to be balanced by mitigation and adaptation policies taking into account effects from the considerable spatial heterogeneity such as revealed by the ILM. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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0308-521x |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4767 |
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Seddaiu, G.; Iocola, I.; Farina, R.; Orsini, R.; Iezzi, G.; Roggero, P.P. |
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Title |
Long term effects of tillage practices and N fertilization in rainfed Mediterranean cropping systems: durum wheat, sunflower and maize grain yield |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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77 |
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166-178 |
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No tillage; Minimum tillage; Silty-clay soil; Yield stability; Recursive partitioning analysis; Rainfed cropping systems; northern Great-Plains; clay loam soil; nitrogen-fertilization; conventional tillage; winter-wheat; growth; quality; rotation; crops; water |
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Long term investigations on the combined effects of tillage systems and other agronomic practices such as mineral N fertilization under Mediterranean conditions on durum wheat are very scanty and findings are often contradictory. Moreover, no studies are available on the long term effect of the adoption of conservation tillage on grain yield of maize and sunflower grown in rotation with durum wheat under rainfed Mediterranean conditions. This paper reports the results of a 20-years experiment on a durum wheat-sunflower (7 years) and durum wheat–maize (13 years) two-year rotation, whose main objective was to quantify the long term effects of different tillage practices (CT = conventional tillage; MT = minimum tillage; NT = no tillage) combined with different nitrogen fertilizer rates (N0, N1, N2 corresponding to 0, 45 and 90 kg N ha−1 for sunflower, and 0, 90 and 180 kg N ha−1 for wheat and maize) on grain yield, yield components and yield stability for the three crops. In addition, the influence of meteorological factors on the interannual variability of studied variables was also assessed. For durum wheat, NT did not allow substantial yield benefits leading to comparable yields with respect to CT in ten out of twenty years. For both sunflower and maize, NT under rainfed conditions was not a viable options, because of the unsuitable (i.e., too wet) soil conditions of the clayish soil at sowing. Both spring crops performed well with MT. No significant N × tillage interaction was found for the three crops. As expected, the response of durum wheat and maize grain yield to N was remarkable, while sunflower grain yield was not significantly influenced by N rate. Wheat yield was constrained by high temperatures in January during tillering and drought in April during heading. The interannual yield variability of sunflower was mainly associated to soil water deficit at flowering and air temperature during seed filling. Heavy rains during this latter phase strongly constrained sunflower grain yield. Maize grain yield was negatively affected by high temperatures in June and drought in July, this latter factor was particularly important in the fertilized maize. Considering both yield and yield stability, durum wheat and sunflower performed better under MT and N1 while maize performed better under both CT and MT and with N2 rates. The results of this long term study are suitable for supporting policies on sustainable Mediterranean rainfed cropping systems and also for cropping system modelling. |
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2016-07-22 |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4722 |
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Author |
Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P. |
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Title |
Designing wheat ideotypes for a changing climate |
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2016 |
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Berlin (Germany) |
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International Crop Modelling Symposium iCROPM 2016, 2016-05-15 to 2016-05-17, Berlin, Germany |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4918 |
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Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P. |
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Title |
Local-scale CMIP5-based climate scenarios for MACSUR2 |
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Report |
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2016 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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8 |
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Pages |
C2.2-D |
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CropM |
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Climate sensitivity of GCMs was used to select 5 GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble for impact studies in MACSUR2. Selected GCMs for MACSUR2 are EC-EARTH (7), GFDL-CM3 (8) HadGEM2-ES (10), MIROC5 (13), and MPI-ESM-MR (15). These GCMs are evenly distributed among CMIP5 (Fig 1) and should capture, in principal, climate uncertainty of the CMIP5 ensemble. Using 5 GCMs will enable us to assess uncertainties in impacts related to uncertainty in climate projections. The selection of GCMs in MACSUR2 has a good overlap with selections of GCMs used in CORDEX and AgMIP projects. We used the LARS-WG generator to construct local-scale CMIP5-based climate scenarios for Europe (Semenov & Stratonovitch, 2015). Fifteen sites were selected in Europe for MACSUR2. For each site and each selected GCM, 100 yrs climate daily data were generated by LARS-WG for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios and for baseline and 3 future periods: near-term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2100). |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2270 |
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Author |
Sharif, B.; Makowski, D.; Plauborg, F.; Olesen, J.E. |
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Title |
Sensitivity of winter oilseed rape production in Denmark towards climate change using regression techniques |
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2016 |
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Berlin (Germany) |
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poster |
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International Crop Modelling Symposium iCROPM 2016, 2016-05-15 to 2016-05-17, Berlin, Germany |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4906 |
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