Records |
Author |
Ewert, F.; van Bussel, L.G.J.; Zhao, G.; Hoffmann, H.; Gaiser, T.; Specka, X.; Nendel, C.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Sosa, C.; Lewan, E.; Yeluripati, J.; Kuhnert, M.; Tao, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Constantin, J.; Raynal, H.; Wallach, D.; Teixeira, E.; Grosz, B.; Bach, M.; Doro, L.; Roggero, P.P.; Zhao, Z.; Wang, E.; Kiese, R.; Haas, E.; Eckersten, H.; Trombi, G.; Bindi, M.; Klein, C.; Biernath, C.; Heinlein, F.; Priesack, E.; Cammarano, D.; Asseng, S.; Elliott, J.; Glotter, M.; Basso, B.; Baigorria, G.A.; Romero, C.C.; Moriondo, M. |
Title |
Uncertainties in Scaling up Crop Models for Large Area Climate-change Impact Assessments |
Type |
Book Chapter |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
261-277 |
Keywords |
CropM; |
Abstract |
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Address |
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Corporate Author |
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Thesis |
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Publisher |
Imperial College Press |
Place of Publication |
London |
Editor |
Rosenzweig, C.; Hillel, D. |
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Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments — Joint Publication with American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America (In 2 Parts) |
Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, |
Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
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ISBN |
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Medium |
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Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
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Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2427 |
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Author |
van Bussel, L.G.J.; Ewert, F.; Zhao, G.; Hoffmann, H.; Enders, A.; Wallach, D.; Asseng, S.; Baigorria, G.A.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Cammarano, D.; Chryssanthacopoulos, J.; Constantin, J.; Elliott, J.; Glotter, M.; Heinlein, F.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Klein, C.; Nendel, C.; Priesack, E.; Raynal, H.; Romero, C.C.; Rötter, R.P.; Specka, X.; Tao, F. |
Title |
Spatial sampling of weather data for regional crop yield simulations |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Volume |
220 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
101-115 |
Keywords |
Regional crop simulations; Winter wheat; Upscaling; Stratified sampling; Yield estimates; climate-change scenarios; water availability; growth simulation; potential impact; food-production; winter-wheat; model; resolution; systems; soil |
Abstract |
Field-scale crop models are increasingly applied at spatio-temporal scales that range from regions to the globe and from decades up to 100 years. Sufficiently detailed data to capture the prevailing spatio-temporal heterogeneity in weather, soil, and management conditions as needed by crop models are rarely available. Effective sampling may overcome the problem of missing data but has rarely been investigated. In this study the effect of sampling weather data has been evaluated for simulating yields of winter wheat in a region in Germany over a 30-year period (1982-2011) using 12 process-based crop models. A stratified sampling was applied to compare the effect of different sizes of spatially sampled weather data (10, 30, 50,100, 500, 1000 and full coverage of 34,078 sampling points) on simulated wheat yields. Stratified sampling was further compared with random sampling. Possible interactions between sample size and crop model were evaluated. The results showed differences in simulated yields among crop models but all models reproduced well the pattern of the stratification. Importantly, the regional mean of simulated yields based on full coverage could already be reproduced by a small sample of 10 points. This was also true for reproducing the temporal variability in simulated yields but more sampling points (about 100) were required to accurately reproduce spatial yield variability. The number of sampling points can be smaller when a stratified sampling is applied as compared to a random sampling. However, differences between crop models were observed including some interaction between the effect of sampling on simulated yields and the model used. We concluded that stratified sampling can considerably reduce the number of required simulations. But, differences between crop models must be considered as the choice for a specific model can have larger effects on simulated yields than the sampling strategy. Assessing the impact of sampling soil and crop management data for regional simulations of crop yields is still needed. |
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Place of Publication |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0168-1923 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
Area |
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Conference |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4673 |
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Author |
Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D.; Chryssanthacopoulos, J.; Boote, K.J.; Büchner, M.; Foster, I.; Glotter, M.; Heinke, J.; Iizumi, T.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Mueller, N.D.; Ray, D.K.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Sheffield, J. |
Title |
The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison: data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0) |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Geoscientific Model Development |
Abbreviated Journal |
Geosci. Model Dev. |
Volume |
8 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
261-277 |
Keywords |
land-surface model; climate-change; systems simulation; high-resolution; water; carbon; yield; agriculture; patterns; growth |
Abstract |
We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project includes global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12-15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification of key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record. |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1991-9603 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4559 |
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Author |
Nelson, G.C.; Valin, H.; Sands, R.D.; Havlík, P.; Ahammad, H.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Von Lampe, M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mason d’Croz, D.; van Meijl, H.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Müller, C.; Popp, A.; Robertson, R.; Robinson, S.; Schmid, E.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D. |
Title |
Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
Volume |
111 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
3274-3279 |
Keywords |
Agriculture/*economics; Carbon Dioxide/analysis; *Climate Change; Commerce/statistics & numerical data; Computer Simulation; Crops, Agricultural/*growth & development; Forecasting; Humans; *Models, Economic; agricultural productivity; climate change adaptation; integrated assessment; model intercomparison |
Abstract |
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m(2). The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change. |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0027-8424 1091-6490 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4535 |
Permanent link to this record |
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Author |
Müller, C.; Elliott, J.; Levermann, A. |
Title |
Food security: Fertilizing hidden hunger |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
Volume |
4 |
Issue |
7 |
Pages |
540-541 |
Keywords |
elevated CO2; human-nutrition; climate-change; carbon; face |
Abstract |
Atmospheric CO2 fertilization may go some way to compensating the negative impact of climatic changes on crop yields, but it comes at the expense of a deterioration of the current nutritional value of food. |
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Publisher |
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Place of Publication |
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Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Series Volume |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1758-678x 1758-6798 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Editorial Material |
Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4537 |
Permanent link to this record |