Abstract: Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs- to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports intercomparisons of IAAS.

Abstract: Because of global land surface warming, extreme temperature events are expected to occur more often and more intensely, affecting the growth and development of the major cereal crops in several ways, thus affecting the production component of food security. In this study, we have identified rice and maize crop responses to temperature in different, but consistent, phenological phases and development stages. A literature review and data compilation of around 140 scientific articles have determined the key temperature thresholds and response to extreme temperature effects for rice and maize, complementing an earlier study on wheat. Lethal temperatures and cardinal temperatures, together with error estimates, have been identified for phenological phases and development stages. Following the methodology of previous work, we have collected and statistically analysed temperature thresholds of the three crops for the key physiological processes such as leaf initiation, shoot growth and root growth and for the most susceptible phenological phases such as sowing to emergence, anthesis and grain filling. Our summary shows that cardinal temperatures are conservative between studies and are seemingly well defined in all three crops. Anthesis and ripening are the most sensitive temperature stages in rice as well as in wheat and maize. We call for further experimental studies of the effects of transgressing threshold temperatures so such responses can be included into crop impact and adaptation models.

Abstract: The available evidence suggests that the current increasing trend in global surface temperatures will continue during this century, which will be accompanied by a greater frequency of extreme events. The IPCC has projected that higher temperatures may outscore the known optimal and maximum temperatures for maize. The purpose of this study was to improve the ability of the maize model CSM-IXIM to simulate crop development, growth, and yield under hot conditions, especially with regards to the impact of above-optimal temperatures around anthesis. Field and greenhouse experiments that were performed over three years (2014-2016) using the same short-season hybrid, PR37N01 (FAO 300), provided the data for this work. Maize was sown at a target population density of 5 plants M-2 on two sowing dates in 2014 and 2015 and on one in 2016 at three locations in Spain (northern, central, and southern Spain) with a well-defined thermal gradient. The same hybrid was also sown in two greenhouse chambers with daytime target temperatures of approximately 25 and above 35 degrees C. During the nighttime, the temperature in both chambers was allowed to equilibrate with the outside temperature. The greenhouse treatments consisted of moving 18 plants at selected phenological stages (V4, V9, anthesis, lag phase, early grain filling) from the cool chamber to the hot chamber over a week and then returning the plants back to the cool chamber. An additional control treatment remained in the cool chamber all season, and in 2015 and 2016, one treatment remained permanently in the hot chamber. Two maize models in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) V4.6 were compared, namely CERES and IXIM. The HUM version included additional components that were previously developed to improve the crop N simulation and to incorporate the anthesis-silking interval (ASI). A new thermal time calculation, a heat stress index, the impact of pollen-sterilizing temperatures, and the explicit simulation of male and female flowering as affected by the daily heat conditions were added to IXIM. The phenology simulation in field experiments by IXIM improved substantially. The RMSE for silking and maturity in CERES were 7.9 and 13.7 days, decreasing in DCIM to 2.8 and 7.3 days, respectively. Similarly, the estimated kernel numbers, kernel weight, grain yield and final biomass were always closer to the measurements in HUM than in CERES. The worst simulations were for kernel weight, and for that reason, the differences in grain yield between the models were small (the RMSE in CERES was 1219 kg ha(-1) vs. 1082 kg ha(-1) in IXIM). The greenhouse results also supported the improved estimations of crop development by IXIM (RMSE of 2.6 days) relative to CERES (7.4 days). The impact of the heat treatments on grain yield was consistently overestimated by CERES, while HUM captured the general trend. The new HUM model improved the CERES simulations when elevated temperatures were included in the evaluation data. Additional model testing with measurements from a wider latitudinal range and relevant heat conditions are required.