toggle visibility Search & Display Options

Select All    Deselect All
 |   | 
Details
   print
  Records Links
Author Lotze-Campen, H.; Verburg, P.H.; Popp, A.; Lindner, M.; Verkerk, P.J.; Moiseyev, A.; Schrammeijer, E.; Helming, J.; Tabeau, A.; Schulp, C.J.E.; van der Zanden, E.H.; Lavalle, C.; e Silva, F.B.; Walz, A.; Bodirsky, B. url  doi
openurl 
  Title A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways Type Journal Article
  Year 2018 Publication Regional Environmental Change Abbreviated Journal Reg. Environ. Change  
  Volume 18 Issue 3 Pages 751-762  
  Keywords Land use change; Integrated modelling; Cross-scale interaction; Nature protection; Impact assessment  
  Abstract Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socio-economic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to understand the interactions between policy-induced land use changes across different scales and sectors under two contrasting future socio-economic pathways. We demonstrate how complementary insights into land system change can be gained by coupling land use models for agriculture, forestry, and urban areas for Europe, in connection with other world regions. The simulated policy case of nature protection shows how the allocation of a certain share of total available land to newly protected areas, with specific management restrictions imposed, may have a range of impacts on different land-based sectors until the year 2040. Agricultural land in Europe is slightly reduced, which is partly compensated for by higher management intensity. As a consequence of higher costs, total calorie supply per capita is reduced within the EU. While wood harvest is projected to decrease, carbon sequestration rates increase in European forests. At the same time, imports of industrial roundwood from other world regions are expected to increase. Some of the aggregate effects of nature protection have very different implications at the local to regional scale in different parts of Europe. Due to nature protection measures, agricultural production is shifted from more productive land in Europe to on average less productive land in other parts of the world. This increases, at the global level, the allocation of land resources for agriculture, leading to a decrease in tropical forest areas, reduced carbon stocks, and higher greenhouse gas emissions outside of Europe. The integrated modelling framework provides a method to assess the land use effects of a single policy option while accounting for the trade-offs between locations, and between regional, European, and global scales.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1436-3798 ISBN Medium  
  Area (down) TradeM Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5004  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Lotze-Campen, H. url  openurl
  Title EU-level assessments and scenarios Type Conference Article
  Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 6 Issue Pages SP6-8  
  Keywords  
  Abstract Shared socio-economic pathways are used to look at particular possible futures of major trends in global socio-economic trends (e.g. global population, GDP, urbanization, strength of political institutions, international trade). These scenarios make no inference to their likelihood of becoming true. These scenarios are used in MACSUR to assess different questions, e.g.•What is the future of agricultural prices?•How will agricultural production and food consumption evolve?•How will climate change impacts and mitigation affect…–Prices–Land use–Trade–Undernourishment No Label  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Brussels Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area (down) Expedition Conference Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades: Why worry when you have CAP? A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2087  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Bishop, J.; Lotze-Campen, H. url  openurl
  Title XC8 Extreme events – Final report Type Report
  Year 2017 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 10 Issue Pages XC8-D  
  Keywords  
  Abstract Following a MACSUR Workshop a joint working paper preliminary titled “More than a change in crop production: metrics and approaches to understand the impacts of extreme events on food security” is now in an advanced stage. A conference paper based on an M.Sc. thesis by Christoph Buschmann, titled “A model-based economic assessment of future climate variability impacts on global agricultural markets” has been presented and the International Conference of Agricultural Economists, 2015. We are working on a journal publication at the moment. Based on a B.Sc. thesis by Patrick Jeetze, we have submitted an abstract and held a presentation at the GlobalFood Symposium 2017, 28-29 April 2017 at Georg-August-University of Goettingen, Germany. Title: “Implications of future climate variability on food security: A model-based assessment of climate-induced crop price volatility impacts” We are currently working on a journal publication on this. Finally, we contributed one section to MACSUR's Research Gap Report (H0.1-D).  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area (down) Expedition Conference  
  Notes XC Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4953  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Acharya, T.; Fanzo, J.; Gustafson, D.; Ingram, J.; Schneeman, B.; Allen, L.; Boote, K.; Drewnowski, A.; Ewert, F.; Hall, S.; Hendley, P.; Howden, M.; Janssen, S.; Jones, J.; Latulippe, M.; Lotze-Campen, H.; McDermott, J.; Meijl, H.V.; Nelson, G.; Newsome, R.; Roulin, A.; Scholes, B.; Tanumihardjo, S.; Tavill, G.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Wiebe, K. url  openurl
  Title Assessing Sustainable Nutrition Security: The Role of Food Systems: Working Paper Type Report
  Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords ftnotmacsur  
  Abstract  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Washington, D.C., U.S.A. Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor ILSI Research Foundation: Center for Integrated Modeling of Sustainable Agriculture and Nutrition Security Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area (down) Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4995  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Stürck, J.; Levers, C.; van der Zanden, E.H.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Verkerk, P.J.; Kuemmerle, T.; Helming, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Tabeau, A.; Popp, A.; Schrammeijer, E.; Verburg, P. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Regional Environmental Change Abbreviated Journal Reg. Environ. Change  
  Volume Issue Pages in press  
  Keywords land use change; land system; modeling; scenario; Europe; ecosystem services  
  Abstract Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1436-3798 ISBN Medium  
  Area (down) Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4996  
Permanent link to this record
Select All    Deselect All
 |   | 
Details
   print

Save Citations:
Export Records: