|
Records |
Links |
|
Author |
Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Semenov, M.A. |
|
|
Title |
Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
|
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of the Royal Society Interface |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. R. Soc. Interface |
|
|
Volume |
12 |
Issue |
112 |
Pages |
20150721 |
|
|
Keywords |
climate change; extreme events; food security; winter wheat |
|
|
Abstract |
Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. |
|
|
Address |
2016-10-31 |
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
1742-5689 1742-5662 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
|
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4819 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Waldemar, B. |
|
|
Title |
WP1 tasks – tasks of WP1 package |
Type |
Conference Article |
|
Year |
2012 |
Publication |
|
Abbreviated Journal |
|
|
|
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
|
|
Keywords |
TradeM |
|
|
Abstract |
|
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
The first meeting of the TradeM Steering Committee, 2012-09-05 to 2012-09-05 |
|
|
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2890 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Walkiewicz, A.; Brzezinska, M. |
|
|
Title |
Methane oxidation in forest and fertilized soils |
Type |
Conference Article |
|
Year |
2013 |
Publication |
|
Abbreviated Journal |
|
|
|
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
|
|
Keywords |
CropM |
|
|
Abstract |
|
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
12th International Workshop for Young Scientists BioPhys Spring 2013. Lublin, Poland., 2013-05-21 to 2013-05-23 |
|
|
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2891 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Wallach, D.; Mearns, L.O.; Asseng, S.; Rötter, R.P. |
|
|
Title |
Using ensembles of models in climate and crop modelling |
Type |
Conference Article |
|
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
|
Abbreviated Journal |
|
|
|
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
|
|
Keywords |
CropM |
|
|
Abstract |
|
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
XIII ESA congress, Debrecen, Hungary, 2014-08-25 to 2014-08-29 |
|
|
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2893 |
|
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
|
Author |
Wang, E.; et, A. |
|
|
Title |
Causes for uncertainty in simulating wheat response to temperature |
Type |
Conference Article |
|
Year |
2014 |
Publication |
|
Abbreviated Journal |
|
|
|
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
|
|
|
Keywords |
CropM |
|
|
Abstract |
|
|
|
Address |
|
|
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
|
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
|
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
|
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
|
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
|
|
ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
|
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
|
|
Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
|
|
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2894 |
|
Permanent link to this record |