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Schmitz, C., Kreidenweis, U., Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A., Krause, M., Dietrich, J. P., et al. (2014). Agricultural trade and tropical deforestation: interactions and related policy options. Reg Environ Change, 15(8), 1757–1772.
Abstract: The extensive clearing of tropical forests throughout past decades has been partly assigned to increased trade in agricultural goods. Since further trade liberalisation can be expected, remaining rainforests are likely to face additional threats with negative implications for climate mitigation and the local environment. We apply a spatially explicit economic land-use model coupled to a biophysical vegetation model to examine linkages and associated policies between trade and tropical deforestation in the future. Results indicate that further trade liberalisation leads to an expansion of deforestation in Amazonia due to comparative advantages of agriculture in South America. Globally, between 30 and 60 million ha (5-10 %) of tropical rainforests would be cleared additionally, leading to 20-40 Gt additional emissions by 2050. By applying different forest protection policies, those values could be reduced substantially. Most effective would be the inclusion of avoided deforestation into a global emissions trading scheme. Carbon prices corresponding to the concentration target of 550 ppm would prevent deforestation after 2020. Investing in agricultural productivity reduces pressure on tropical forests without the necessity of direct protection. In general, additional trade-induced demand from developed and emerging countries should be compensated by international efforts to protect natural resources in tropical regions.
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Nelson, G. C., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Calvin, K., Hasegawa, T., et al. (2014). Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don’t the models agree. Agric. Econ., 45(1), 85.
Abstract: Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices, production, and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification. This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes were reduced. The particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects. All models respond with higher prices. Producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response. Demand response is least important. The differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future. The results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters, to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to Monte Carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty.
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Dietrich, J. P., Schmitz, C., Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A., & Muller, C. (2014). Forecasting technological change in agriculture-An endogenous implementation in a global, and use model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 81, 236–249.
Abstract: Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 029 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (”Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Highest future yield increases are required in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Our validation with FAO data for the period 1995-2005 indicates that the model behavior is in line with observations. By comparing two scenarios on forest conservation we show that protecting sensitive forest areas in the future is possible but requires substantial investments into technological change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Lotze-Campen, H. (2015). EU-level assessments and scenarios. In FACCE MACSUR Reports (Vol. 6, pp. SP6–8). Brussels.
Abstract: Shared socio-economic pathways are used to look at particular possible futures of major trends in global socio-economic trends (e.g. global population, GDP, urbanization, strength of political institutions, international trade). These scenarios make no inference to their likelihood of becoming true. These scenarios are used in MACSUR to assess different questions, e.g.•What is the future of agricultural prices?•How will agricultural production and food consumption evolve?•How will climate change impacts and mitigation affect…–Prices–Land use–Trade–Undernourishment No Label
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Bishop, J., & Lotze-Campen, H. (2017). XC8 Extreme events – Final report (Vol. 10).
Abstract: Following a MACSUR Workshop a joint working paper preliminary titled “More than a change in crop production: metrics and approaches to understand the impacts of extreme events on food security” is now in an advanced stage. A conference paper based on an M.Sc. thesis by Christoph Buschmann, titled “A model-based economic assessment of future climate variability impacts on global agricultural markets” has been presented and the International Conference of Agricultural Economists, 2015. We are working on a journal publication at the moment. Based on a B.Sc. thesis by Patrick Jeetze, we have submitted an abstract and held a presentation at the GlobalFood Symposium 2017, 28-29 April 2017 at Georg-August-University of Goettingen, Germany. Title: “Implications of future climate variability on food security: A model-based assessment of climate-induced crop price volatility impacts” We are currently working on a journal publication on this. Finally, we contributed one section to MACSUR's Research Gap Report (H0.1-D).
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