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| Author | Challinor, A.J.; Müller, C.; Asseng, S.; Deva, C.; Nicklin, K.J.; Wallach, D.; Vanuytrecht, E.; Whitfield, S.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Koehler, A.-K. | ||||
| Title | Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation | Type | Journal Article | ||
| Year | 2017 | Publication | Agricultural Systems | Abbreviated Journal | Agric. Syst. |
| Volume | 159 | Issue | Pages | 296-306 | |
| Keywords | Crop model; Risk assessment; Climate change impacts; Adaptation; Climate models; Uncertainty | ||||
| Abstract | Highlights • 14 criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk • Working with stakeholders to identify timing of risks is key to risk assessments. • Multiple methods needed to critically assess the use of climate model output • Increasing transparency and inter-comparability needed in risk assessments Abstract Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1. Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk? 2. Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output. 3. Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions underlying these ranges are not always clear. We suggest that the contingency of results upon assumptions is made explicit via a common uncertainty reporting format; and/or that studies are assessed against a set of criteria, such as those presented in this paper. |
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| Language | Summary Language | phase 2+ | Original Title | ||
| Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
| Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
| ISSN | 0308521x | ISBN | Medium | ||
| Area | CropM | Expedition | Conference | ||
| Notes | CropM, ft_macsur | Approved | no | ||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 5175 | ||
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| Author | Rötter, R.P.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Basso, B.; Ruane, A.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.; Brisson, N.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Pertuzzi; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Müller, C.; Kumar, S.N.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J. | ||||
| Title | Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Crop Water Use under Climate Change | Type | Conference Article | ||
| Year | 2013 | Publication | Abbreviated Journal | ||
| Volume | Issue | Pages | |||
| Keywords | CropM | ||||
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| Area | Expedition | Conference | Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, Germany, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30 | ||
| Notes | Approved | no | |||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 2767 | ||
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| Author | Waha, K.; Müller, C. | ||||
| Title | The essential temperature routines in LPJmL for wheat simulations | Type | Book Chapter | ||
| Year | 2013 | Publication | Abbreviated Journal | ||
| Volume | Issue | Pages | 81-84 | ||
| Keywords | CropM | ||||
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| Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | Alderman, P.D.; Quilligan, E.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Reynolds, M.P. | ||
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| Series Editor | Series Title | Proceedings of the Workshop ‘Modeling Wheat Response to High Temperature’ CIMMYT, El Batan, Texcoco, Mexico, June 19-21, 2013 | Abbreviated Series Title | ||
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| Notes | Approved | no | |||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 2887 | ||
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| Author | Müller, C.; Stehfest, E.; van Minnen, J.; Strengers, B.; von, B.W.; Beusen, A.; Schaphoff, S.; Kram, T.; Lucht, W. | ||||
| Title | Reversal of the land biosphere carbon balance under climate and land-use change | Type | Conference Article | ||
| Year | 2013 | Publication | Abbreviated Journal | ||
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| Keywords | CropM | ||||
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| Area | Expedition | Conference | European GeoSciences Union (EGU), General Assembly 2013, 2013-04-07 to 2013-04-12 | ||
| Notes | Approved | no | |||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 2672 | ||
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| Author | Müller, C.; Elliott, J. | ||||
| Title | The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison – Approaches, insights and caveats of modeling climate change impacts on agriculture at the global scale | Type | Conference Article | ||
| Year | 2013 | Publication | Abbreviated Journal | ||
| Volume | Issue | Pages | |||
| Keywords | CropM | ||||
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| Area | Expedition | Conference | FAO expert consultation on climate change and trade, Rome, Italy, 2013-11-05 to 2013-11-06 | ||
| Notes | Approved | no | |||
| Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 2670 | ||
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