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Author |
Fürst, C.; Helming, K.; Lorz, C.; Müller, F.; Verburg, P.H. |
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Title |
Integrated land use and regional resource management--a cross-disciplinary dialogue on future perspectives for a sustainable development of regional resources |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Journal of Environmental Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Environ. Manage. |
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127 Suppl |
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S1-S5 |
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Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods; Analytical framework for integrated planning; Integrated land use; Regional planning; Regional resource management; Sustainable regional development |
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Our paper introduces objectives and ideas of the special issue “Integrated land use and regional resource management – A cross-disciplinary dialogue on future perspectives for a sustainable development of regional resources” and provides an overview on the contributions of the single papers in the special issue to this topic. Furthermore, we discuss and present major challenges and demands on integrated land use and regional resource management and we come up with an analytical framework how to correspond these demands. |
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0301-4797 |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4826 |
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Jägermeyr, J.; Gerten, D.; Schaphoff, S.; Heinke, J.; Lucht, W.; Rockström, J. |
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Title |
Integrated crop water management might sustainably halve the global food gap |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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Volume |
11 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
025002 |
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Keywords |
sustainable intensification; yield gap; water harvesting; conservation agriculture; irrigation efficiency; food security; climate change adaptation; sub-saharan africa; rain-fed agriculture; dry-spell mitigation; supplemental irrigation; climate-change; smallholder irrigation; environmental impacts; developing-countries; semiarid region; south-africa |
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Abstract |
As planetary boundaries are rapidly being approached, humanity has little room for additional expansion and conventional intensification of agriculture, while a growing world population further spreads the food gap. Ample evidence exists that improved on-farm water management can close water-related yield gaps to a considerable degree, but its global significance remains unclear. In this modeling study we investigate systematically to what extent integrated crop water management might contribute to closing the global food gap, constrained by the assumption that pressure on water resources and land does not increase. Using a process-based bio-/agrosphere model, we simulate the yield-increasing potential of elevated irrigation water productivity (including irrigation expansion with thus saved water) and optimized use of in situ precipitation water (alleviated soil evaporation, enhanced infiltration, water harvesting for supplemental irrigation) under current and projected future climate (from 20 climate models, with and without beneficial CO2 effects). Results show that irrigation efficiency improvements can save substantial amounts of water in many river basins (globally 48% of non-productive water consumption in an ‘ambitious’ scenario), and if rerouted to irrigate neighboring rainfed systems, can boost kcal production significantly (26% global increase). Low-tech solutions for small-scale farmers on water-limited croplands show the potential to increase rainfed yields to a similar extent. In combination, the ambitious yet achievable integrated water management strategies explored in this study could increase global production by 41% and close the water-related yield gap by 62%. Unabated climate change will have adverse effects on crop yields in many regions, but improvements in water management as analyzed here can buffer such effects to a significant degree. |
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1748-9326 |
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CropM, TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4733 |
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Pirttioja, N.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Bindi, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Palosuo, T.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; Acutis, M.; Asseng, S.; Baranowski, P.; Basso, B.; Bodin, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Deligios, P.; Destain, M.F.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; François, L.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Jacquemin, I.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kollas, C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lorite, I.J.; Minet, J.; Minguez, M.I.; Montesino-San Martin, M.; Moriondo, M.; Müller, C.; Nendel, C.; Öztürk, I.; Perego, A.; Rodríguez, A.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Sanna, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Slawinski, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wu, L.; Zhao, Z.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Title |
Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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65 |
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87-105 |
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climate; crop model; impact response surface; IRS; sensitivity analysis; wheat; yield; climate-change impacts; uncertainty; 21st-century; projections; simulation; growth; region |
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Abstract |
This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development. |
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0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4662 |
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Yin, X.; Olesen, J.E.; Wang, M.; Öztürk, I.; Zhang, H.; Chen, F. |
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Title |
Impacts and adaptation of the cropping systems to climate change in the Northeast Farming Region of China |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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78 |
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60-72 |
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Climate change; Vulnerability; Impact; Adaptation; Cropping systems; The Northeast Farming Region of China; maize production; high-temperature; growth period; yield; rice; drought; management; nitrogen; crops; pests |
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The Northeast Farming Region of China (NFR) is a very important crop growing area, comprising seven sub-regions: Xing’anling (XA), Sanjiang (SJ), Northwest Songliao (NSL), Central Songliao (CSL), Southwest Songliao (SSL), Changbaishan (CB) and Liaodong (LD), which has been severely affected by extreme climate events and climatic change. Therefore, a set of expert survey has been done to identify current and project future climate limitations to crop production and explore appropriate adaptation measures in NFR. Droughts have been the largest limitation for maize (Zea mays L.) in NSL and SSL, and for soybean (Glycine max L Merr.) in SSL. Chilling damage has been the largest limitation for rice (Oryza sativa L) production in XA, SJ and CB. Projected climate change is expected to be beneficial for expanding the crop growing season, and to provide more suitable conditions for sowing and harvest. Autumn frost will occur later in most parts of NFR, and chilling damage will also decrease, particularly for rice production in XA and SJ. Drought and heat stress are expected to become more severe for maize and soybean production in most parts of NFR. Also, plant diseases, pests and weeds are considered to become more severe for crop production under climate change. Adaptation measures that have already been implemented in recent decades to cope with current climatic limitations include changes in timing of cultivation, variety choice, soil tillage practices, crop protection, irrigation and use of plastic film for soil cover. With the projected climate change and increasing risk of climatic extremes, additional adaptation measures will become relevant for sustaining and improving productivity of crops in NFR to ensure food security in China. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4772 |
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Dono, G.; Cortignani, R.; Dell’Unto, D.; Deligios, P.; Doro, L.; Lacetera, N.; Mula, L.; Pasqui, M.; Quaresima, S.; Vitali, A.; Roggero, P.P. |
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Winners and losers from climate change in agriculture: Insights from a case study in the Mediterranean basin |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Systems |
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147 |
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65-75 |
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Adaptation of farms to CC; Mediterranean region; Discrete Stochastic Programming; Regional Atmospheric Modelling System; Crop models; Livestock models |
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The Mediterranean region has always shown a marked inter-annual variability in seasonal weather, creating uncertainty in decisional processes of cultivation and livestock breeding that should not be neglected when modeling farmers’ adaptive responses. This is especially relevant when assessing the impact of climate change (CC), which modifies the atmospheric variability and generates new uncertainty conditions, and the possibility of adaptation of agriculture. Our analysis examines this aspect reconstructing the effects of inter-annual climate variability in a diversified farming district that well represents a wide range of rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems in the Mediterranean area. We used a Regional Atmospheric Modelling System and a weather generator to generate 150 stochastic years of the present and near future climate. Then, we implemented calibrated crop and livestock models to estimate the corresponding productive responses in the form of probability distribution functions (PDFs) under the two climatic conditions. We assumed these PDFs able to represent the expectations of farmers in a discrete stochastic programming (DSP) model that reproduced their economic behaviour under uncertainty conditions. The comparison of the results in the two scenarios provided an assessment of the impact of CC, also taking into account the possibility of adjustment allowed by present technologies and price regimes. The DSP model is built in blocks that represent the farm typologies operating in the study area, each one with its own resource endowment, decisional constraints and economic response. Under this latter aspect, major differences emerged among farm typologies and sub-zones of the study area. A crucial element of differentiation was water availability, since only irrigated C3 crops took full advantage from the fertilization effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Rainfed crop production was depressed by the expected reduction of spring rainfall associated to the higher temperatures. So, a dualism emerges between the smaller impact on crop production in the irrigated plain sub-zone, equipped with collective water networks and abundant irrigation resources, and the major negative impact in the hilly area, where these facilities and resources are absent. However intensive dairy farming was also negatively affected in terms of milk production and quality, and cattle mortality because of the increasing summer temperatures. This provides explicit guidance for addressing strategic adaptation policies and for framing farmers’ perception of CC, in order to help them to develop an awareness of the phenomena that are already in progress, which is a prerequisite for effective adaptation responses. |
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0308521x |
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CropM, LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4756 |
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