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Author Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.G.; Fronzek, S.
Title Projections of climate change impacts on crop production: A global and a Nordic perspective Type Journal Article
Year 2012 Publication Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science Abbreviated Journal Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science
Volume 62 Issue 4 Pages 166-180
Keywords climate change; impact projection; food production; uncertainty; crop simulation model; food security; integrated assessment; winter-wheat; scenarios; agriculture; adaptation; temperature; models; yield; scale
Abstract Global climate is changing and food production is very sensitive to weather and climate variations. Global assessments of climate change impacts on food production have been made since the early 1990s, initially with little attention to the uncertainties involved. Although there has been abundant analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the climate system, uncertainties related to the way climate change projections are scaled down as appropriate for different analyses and in modelling crop responses to climate change, have been neglected. This review paper mainly addresses uncertainties in crop impact modelling and possibilities to reduce them. We specifically aim to (i) show ranges of projected climate change-induced impacts on crop yields, (ii) give recommendations on use of emission scenarios, climate models, regionalization and ensemble crop model simulations for different purposes and (iii) discuss improvements and a few known unknowns’ affecting crop impact projections.
Address (up) 2016-10-31
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0906-4702 1651-1972 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4802
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Author Rosenzweig, C.; Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Ruane, A.C.; Müller, C.; Arneth, A.; Boote, K.J.; Folberth, C.; Glotter, M.; Khabarov, N.; Neumann, K.; Piontek, F.; Pugh, T.A.; Schmid, E.; Stehfest, E.; Yang, H.; Jones, J.W.
Title Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Abbreviated Journal Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.
Volume 111 Issue 9 Pages 3268-3273
Keywords Agriculture/*methods/statistics & numerical data; *Climate Change; Computer Simulation; Crops, Agricultural/*growth & development; Forecasting; Geography; *Models, Theoretical; Nitrogen/*analysis; Risk Assessment; Temperature; AgMIP; Isi-mip; agriculture; climate impacts; food security
Abstract Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.
Address (up) 2016-10-31
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1091-6490 (Electronic) 0027-8424 (Linking) ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4801
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Author Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Trnka, M.; Semenov, M.A.
Title Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security INTRODUCTION Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Climate Research Abbreviated Journal Clim. Res.
Volume 65 Issue Pages 3-5
Keywords Crop production; Climate change impact and adaptation assessments; Upscaling; Model ensembles
Abstract Process-based crop models that synthesise the latest scientific understanding of biophysical processes are currently the primary scientific tools available to assess potential impacts of climate change on crop production. Important obstacles are still present, however, and must be overcome for improving crop modelling application in integrated assessments of risk, of sustainability and of crop-production resilience in the face of climate change (e.g. uncertainty analysis, model integration, etc.). The research networks MACSUR and AGMIP organised the CropM International Symposium and Workshop in Oslo, on 10-12 February 2014, and present this CR Special, discussing the state-of-the-art-as well as future perspectives-of crop modelling applications in climate change risk assessment, including the challenges of integrated assessments for the agricultural sector.
Address (up) 2016-10-31
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0936-577x ISBN Medium Editorial Material
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4785
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Author Holman, I.P.; Brown, C.; Janes, V.; Sandars, D.
Title Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis Type Journal Article
Year 2017 Publication Agricultural Systems Abbreviated Journal Agric. Syst.
Volume 151 Issue Pages 126-135
Keywords Climate change, Socio-economic change, Impacts, Integrated assessment, Uncertainty; Climate-Change Impacts; Water-Based Sectors; North-West England; Socioeconomic Change; Change Vulnerability; East-Anglia; Adaptation; Policy; Uncertainties; Agriculture
Abstract The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (<33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability.
Address (up) 2017-02-23
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes LiveM, TradeM, ft_MACSUR Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4937
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Author Siebert, S.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Ewert, F.; Siebert, S.; Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Ewert, F.
Title Heat stress is overestimated in climate impact studies for irrigated agriculture Type Journal Article
Year 2017 Publication Environmental Research Letters Abbreviated Journal Environ. Res. Lett.
Volume 12 Issue 5 Pages 054023
Keywords heat stress; climate change impact assessment; irrigation; canopy temperature; CANOPY TEMPERATURE; WINTER-WHEAT; WATER-STRESS; CROP YIELDS; GROWTH; MAIZE; DROUGHT; UNCERTAINTY; ENVIRONMENT; PHENOLOGY
Abstract Climate change will increase the number and severity of heat waves, and is expected to negatively affect crop yields. Here we show for wheat and maize across Europe that heat stress is considerably reduced by irrigation due to surface cooling for both current and projected future climate. We demonstrate that crop heat stress impact assessments should be based on canopy temperature because simulations with air temperatures measured at standard weather stations cannot reproduce differences in crop heat stress between irrigated and rainfed conditions. Crop heat stress was overestimated on irrigated land when air temperature was used with errors becoming larger with projected climate change. Corresponding errors in mean crop yield calculated across Europe for baseline climate 1984-2013 of 0.2 Mg yr(-1) (2%) and 0.6 Mg yr(-1) (5%) for irrigated winter wheat and irrigated grain maize, respectively, would increase to up to 1.5 Mg yr (1) (16%) for irrigated winter wheat and 4.1 Mg yr (1) (39%) for irrigated grain maize, depending on the climate change projection/GCM combination considered. We conclude that climate change impact assessments for crop heat stress need to account explicitly for the impact of irrigation.
Address (up) 2017-06-22
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1748-9326 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5035
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