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Wallach, D.; Thorburn, P.; Asseng, S.; Challinor, A.J.; Ewert, F.; Jones, J.W.; Rötter, R.P.; Ruane, A. |
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Title |
A framework for evaluating uncertainty in crop model predictions |
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Conference Article |
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2016 |
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Berlin (Germany) |
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International Crop Modelling Symposium iCROPM 2016, 2016-05-15 to 2016-05-17, Berlin, Germany |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4925 |
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Liu, B.; Asseng, S.; Müller, C.; Ewert, F.; Elliott, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Martre, P.; Ruane, A. C.; Wallach, D.; Jones, J. W.; Rosenzweig, C.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Alderman, P. D.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Cammarano, D.; Challinor, A.; Deryng, D.; Sanctis, G. D.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Folberth, C.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L. A.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C. D.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Kimball, B. A.; Koehler, A.-K.; Kumar, S. N.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G. J.; Olesen, J. E.; Ottman, M. J.; Palosuo, T.; Prasad, P. V. V.; Priesack, E.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Reynolds, M.; Rezaei, E. E.; Rötter, R. P.; Schmid, E.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stehfest, E.; Stöckle, C. O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P.; Waha, K.; Wall, G. W.; Wang, E.; White, J. W.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y. |
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Title |
Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
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Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
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6 |
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12 |
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1130-1136 |
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1758-678x |
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article |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4965 |
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Ginaldi, F.; Bindi, M.; Marta, A.D.; Ferrise, R.; Orlandini, S.; Danuso, F. |
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Title |
Interoperability of agronomic long term experiment databases and crop model intercomparison: the Italian experience |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
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European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Europ. J. Agron. |
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77 |
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209-222 |
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• ICFAR-DB organises and stores data from 16 Italian long term agronomic experiments. • ICFAR-DB fulfils interoperability using system dynamics ontology and AgMIP nomenclature. • ICFAR information management system moves closer data to model and vice versa. The IC-FAR national project (Linking long term observatories with crop system modelling for better understanding of climate change impact, and adaptation strategies for Italian cropping systems) initiated in 2013 with the primary aim of implementing data from 16 long term Italian agronomic experiments in a common, interoperable structure. The building of a common database (DB) structure demands a harmonization process aimed at standardising concepts, language and data in order to make them clear, and has to produce a well-documented and easily available tool for the whole scientific community. The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has made a great effort in this sense, improving the vocabulary developed by the International Consortium for Agricultural Systems Applications (ICASA) and defining harmonization procedures. Nowadays, these ones have also to be addressed to facilitate the extraction of input files for crop model simulations. Substantially, two alternative directions can be pursued: adapting data to models, building a standard storage structure and using translators that convert DB information to model input files; or adapting models to data, using the same storage structure for feeding modelling solutions constituted by combining model components, re-implemented in the same model platform. The ICFAR information management system simplifies data entry, improves model input extraction (implementing System Dynamics ontology), and satisfies both the paradigms. This has required the development of different software tools: ICFAR-DB for data entry and storage; a model input extractor for feeding the crop models (MoLInEx); SEMoLa platform for building modelling solutions and performing via scripts the model intercomparison. The use of the standard AgMIP/ICASA nomenclature in the ICFAR-DB and the opportunity to create files with MoLInex for feeding AgMIP model translators allow full system interoperability. |
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1161-0301 |
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article |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4972 |
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Boote, K.J.; Porter, C.; Jones, J.W.; Thorburn, P.J.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Hoogenboom, G.; White, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L. |
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Title |
Sentinel site data for crop model improvement—definition and characterization |
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Book Chapter |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Improving Modeling Tools to Assess Climate Change Effects on Crop Response |
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Crop models are increasingly being used to assess the impacts of future climate change on production and food security. High quality, site-specific data on weather, soils, management, and cultivar are needed for those model applications. Also important is that model development, evaluation, improvement, and calibration require additional high quality, site-specific measurements on crop yield, growth, phenology, and ancillary traits. We review the evolution of minimum data set requirements for agroecosystem modeling and then describe the characteristics and ranking of sentinel site data needed for crop model improvement, calibration, and application. We in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), propose to rank sentinel site data sets as platinum, gold, silver, and copper, based on the degree of true site-specific measurement of weather, soils, management, crop yield, as well as the quality, comprehensiveness, quantity, accuracy, and value. For example, to be ranked platinum, the weather and soil characterization must be measured on-site, and all management inputs must be known. Dataset ranking will be lower for weather measured off-site or soil traits estimated from soil mapping. Ranking also depends on the intended purposes for data use. If the purpose is to improve a crop model for response to water or N, then additional observations are necessary, such as initial soil water, initial soil inorganic N, and plant N uptake during the growing season to be ranked platinum. Rankings are enhanced by presence of multiple treatments and sites. Examples of platinum-, gold-, and silver-quality data sets for model improvement and calibration uses are illustrated. |
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Hatfield, J.L.; Fleisher, D. |
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Advances in Agricultural Systems Modeling |
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7 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4980 |
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Kersebaum, K.; Kroes, J.; Gobin, A.; Takáč, J.; Hlavinka, P.; Trnka, M.; Ventrella, D.; Giglio, L.; Ferrise, R.; Moriondo, M.; Dalla Marta, A.; Luo, Q.; Eitzinger, J.; Mirschel, W.; Weigel, H.-J.; Manderscheid, R.; Hoffmann, M.; Nejedlik, P.; Iqbal, M.; Hösch, J. |
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Assessing uncertainties of water footprints using an ensemble of crop growth models on winter wheat |
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Journal Article |
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2016 |
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Water |
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Water |
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8 |
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12 |
Pages |
571 |
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Crop productivity and water consumption form the basis to calculate the water footprint (WF) of a specific crop. Under current climate conditions, calculated evapotranspiration is related to observed crop yields to calculate WF. The assessment of WF under future climate conditions requires the simulation of crop yields adding further uncertainty. To assess the uncertainty of model based assessments of WF, an ensemble of crop models was applied to data from five field experiments across Europe. Only limited data were provided for a rough calibration, which corresponds to a typical situation for regional assessments, where data availability is limited. Up to eight models were applied for wheat. The coefficient of variation for the simulated actual evapotranspiration between models was in the range of 13%–19%, which was higher than the inter-annual variability. Simulated yields showed a higher variability between models in the range of 17%–39%. Models responded differently to elevated CO2 in a FACE (Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment) experiment, especially regarding the reduction of water consumption. The variability of calculated WF between models was in the range of 15%–49%. Yield predictions contributed more to this variance than the estimation of water consumption. Transpiration accounts on average for 51%–68% of the total actual evapotranspiration. |
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2073-4441 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4987 |
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