| Records |
| Author |
Wallach, D.; Thorburn, P.; Asseng, S.; Challinor, A.J.; Ewert, F.; Jones, J.W.; Rötter, R.; Ruane, A. |
| Title |
Estimating model prediction error: Should you treat predictions as fixed or random |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
| Volume |
84 |
Issue |
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Pages |
529-539 |
| Keywords |
Crop model; Uncertainty; Prediction error; Parameter uncertainty; Input uncertainty; Model structure uncertainty |
| Abstract |
Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEPfixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEPuncertain(X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEPuncertain(X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEPuncertain(X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation. |
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English |
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1364-8152 |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4773 |
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| Author |
Minet, J.; Tychon, B.; Jacquemin, I.; François, L. |
| Title |
Can a global dynamic vegetation model be used for both grassland and crop modeling at the local scale |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
CropM; LiveM |
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MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2641 |
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| Author |
Martre, P.E.A. |
| Title |
Error and uncertainty of wheat multimodel ensemble projections |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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CropM |
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MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2633 |
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| Author |
Mansouri, M.; Dumont, B.; Destain, M.-F. |
| Title |
Bayesian methods for predicting LAI and soil moisture |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
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CropM |
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11th International Conference on Precision Agriculture. Indianapolis (USA), 2012-07-15 to 2012-07-18 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2627 |
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| Author |
Manevski, K.; Børgesen, D.; Andersen, N.; Olesen, J.E. |
| Title |
Maize production and nitrogen dynamics under current and warmer climate in Denmark: simulations with the DAISY model |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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| Keywords |
CropM |
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MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12 |
| Notes |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2624 |
| Permanent link to this record |
