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Sándor, R., Barcza, Z., Hidy, D., Lellei-Kovács, E., Ma, S., & Bellocchi, G. (2016). Modelling of grassland fluxes in Europe: evaluation of two biogeochemical models. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ., 215, 1–19.
Abstract: Two independently developed simulation models – the grassland-specific PaSim and the biome-generic Biome-BGC MuSo (BBGC MuSo) – linking climate, soil, vegetation and management to ecosystem biogeochemical cycles were compared in a simulation of carbon (C) and water fluxes. The results were assessed against eddy-covariance flux data from five observational grassland sites representing a range of conditions in Europe: Grillenburg in Germany, Laqueuille in France with both extensive and intensive management, Monte Bondone in Italy and Oensingen in Switzerland. Model comparison (after calibration) gave substantial agreement, the performances being marginal to acceptable for weekly-aggregated gross primary production and ecosystem respiration (R-2 similar to 0.66 – 0.91), weekly evapotranspiration (R-2 similar to 0.78 – 0.94), soil water content in the topsoil (R-2 similar to 0.1 -0.7) and soil temperature (R-2 similar to 0.88 – 0.96). The bias was limited to the range -13 to 9 g C m(-2) week(-1) for C fluxes (-11 to 8 g C m(-2) week(-1) in case of BBGC MuSo, and -13 to 9 g C m(-2) week(-1) in case of PaSim) and -4 to 6 mm week for water fluxes (with BBGC MuSo providing somewhat higher estimates than PaSim), but some higher relative root mean square errors indicate low accuracy for prediction, especially for net ecosystem exchange The sensitivity of simulated outputs to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature and precipitation indicate, with certain agreement between the two models, that C outcomes are dominated by [CO2] and temperature gradients, and are less due to precipitation. ET rates decrease with increasing [CO2] in PaSim (consistent with experimental knowledge), while lack of appropriate stomatal response could be a limit in BBGC MuSo responsiveness. Results of the study indicate that some of the errors might be related to the improper representation of soil water content and soil temperature. Improvement is needed in the model representations of soil processes (especially soil water balance) that strongly influence the biogeochemical cycles of managed and unmanaged grasslands. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Schmitz, C., Kreidenweis, U., Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A., Krause, M., Dietrich, J. P., et al. (2014). Agricultural trade and tropical deforestation: interactions and related policy options. Reg Environ Change, 15(8), 1757–1772.
Abstract: The extensive clearing of tropical forests throughout past decades has been partly assigned to increased trade in agricultural goods. Since further trade liberalisation can be expected, remaining rainforests are likely to face additional threats with negative implications for climate mitigation and the local environment. We apply a spatially explicit economic land-use model coupled to a biophysical vegetation model to examine linkages and associated policies between trade and tropical deforestation in the future. Results indicate that further trade liberalisation leads to an expansion of deforestation in Amazonia due to comparative advantages of agriculture in South America. Globally, between 30 and 60 million ha (5-10 %) of tropical rainforests would be cleared additionally, leading to 20-40 Gt additional emissions by 2050. By applying different forest protection policies, those values could be reduced substantially. Most effective would be the inclusion of avoided deforestation into a global emissions trading scheme. Carbon prices corresponding to the concentration target of 550 ppm would prevent deforestation after 2020. Investing in agricultural productivity reduces pressure on tropical forests without the necessity of direct protection. In general, additional trade-induced demand from developed and emerging countries should be compensated by international efforts to protect natural resources in tropical regions.
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Porter, J. R., & Christensen, S. (2013). Deconstructing crop processes and models via identities. Plant Cell and Environment, 36(11), 1919–1925.
Abstract: This paper is part review and part opinion piece; it has three parts of increasing novelty and speculation in approach. The first presents an overview of how some of the major crop simulation models approach the issue of simulating the responses of crops to changing climatic and weather variables, mainly atmospheric CO2 concentration and increased and/or varying temperatures. It illustrates an important principle in models of a single cause having alternative effects and vice versa. The second part suggests some features, mostly missing in current crop models, that need to be included in the future, focussing on extreme events such as high temperature or extreme drought. The final opinion part is speculative but novel. It describes an approach to deconstruct resource use efficiencies into their constituent identities or elements based on the Kaya-Porter identity, each of which can be examined for responses to climate and climatic change. We give no promise that the final part is correct’, but we hope it can be a stimulation to thought, hypothesis and experiment, and perhaps a new modelling approach.
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Comadira, G., Rasool, B., Karpinska, B., Morris, J., Verrall, S. R., Hedley, P. E., et al. (2015). Nitrogen deficiency in barley (Hordeum vulgare) seedlings induces molecular and metabolic adjustments that trigger aphid resistance. J. Experim. Bot., 66(12), 3639–3655.
Abstract: Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) pollution resulting from the use of synthetic fertilizers represents a significant contribution to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, providing a rationale for reduced use of nitrogen (N) fertilizers. Nitrogen limitation results in extensive systems rebalancing that remodels metabolism and defence processes. To analyse the regulation underpinning these responses, barley (Horedeum vulgare) seedlings were grown for 7 d under N-deficient conditions until net photosynthesis was 50% lower than in N-replete controls. Although shoot growth was decreased there was no evidence for the induction of oxidative stress despite lower total concentrations of N-containing antioxidants. Nitrogen-deficient barley leaves were rich in amino acids, sugars and tricarboxylic acid cycle intermediates. In contrast to N-replete leaves one-day-old nymphs of the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae) failed to reach adulthood when transferred to N-deficient barley leaves. Transcripts encoding cell, sugar and nutrient signalling, protein degradation and secondary metabolism were over-represented in N-deficient leaves while those associated with hormone metabolism were similar under both nutrient regimes with the exception of mRNAs encoding proteins involved in auxin metabolism and responses. Significant similarities were observed between the N-limited barley leaf transcriptome and that of aphid-infested Arabidopsis leaves. These findings not only highlight significant similarities between biotic and abiotic stress signalling cascades but also identify potential targets for increasing aphid resistance with implications for the development of sustainable agriculture.
Keywords: Animals; Aphids/drug effects/*physiology; Biomass; Carbon/pharmacology; Chlorophyll/metabolism; Cluster Analysis; *Disease Resistance/drug effects; Gases/metabolism; Gene Expression Regulation, Plant/drug effects; Hordeum/drug effects/genetics/*parasitology; Nitrogen/*deficiency/metabolism/pharmacology; Oxidation-Reduction/drug effects; Photosynthesis/drug effects; Plant Diseases/genetics/*parasitology; Plant Leaves/drug effects/genetics/metabolism; Plant Proteins/genetics/metabolism; Plant Shoots/drug effects/metabolism; RNA, Messenger/genetics/metabolism; Secondary Metabolism/drug effects; Seedlings/drug effects/*metabolism/*parasitology; Signal Transduction/drug effects; Thylakoids/drug effects/metabolism/parasitology; Transcription Factors/metabolism; Transcriptome/genetics; Cross-tolerance; Myzus persicae; kinase cascades; metabolite profiles; nitrogen limitation; oxidative stress; sugar signalling
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Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Frieler, K., Konzmann, M., Gerten, D., et al. (2013). Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 111(9), 3239–3244.
Abstract: We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.
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