Records |
Author |
Stürck, J.; Levers, C.; van der Zanden, E.H.; Schulp, C.J.E.; Verkerk, P.J.; Kuemmerle, T.; Helming, J.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Tabeau, A.; Popp, A.; Schrammeijer, E.; Verburg, P. |
Title |
Simulating and delineating future land change trajectories across Europe |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg. Environ. Change |
Volume |
|
Issue |
|
Pages |
in press |
Keywords |
land use change; land system; modeling; scenario; Europe; ecosystem services |
Abstract |
Explorations of future land use change are important to understand potential conflicts between competing land uses, trade-offs associated with particular land change trajectories, and the effectiveness of policies to steer land systems into desirable states. Most model-based explorations and scenario studies focused on conversions in broad land use classes, but disregarded changes in land management or focused on individual sectors only. Using the European Union (EU) as a case study, we developed an approach to identifying typical combinations of land cover and management changes by combining the results of multimodel simulations in the agriculture and forest sectors for four scenarios from 2000 to 2040. We visualized land change trajectories by mapping regional hotspots of change. Land change trajectories differed in extent and spatial pattern across the EU and among scenarios, indicating trajectory-specific option spaces for alternative land system outcomes. In spite of the large variation in the area of change, similar hotspots of land change were observed among the scenarios. All scenarios indicate a stronger polarization of land use in Europe, with a loss of multifunctional landscapes. We analyzed locations subject to change by comparing location characteristics associated with certain land change trajectories. Results indicate differences in the location conditions of different land change trajectories, with diverging impacts on ecosystem service provisioning. Policy and planning for future land use needs to account for the spatial variation of land change trajectories to achieve both overarching and location-specific targets. |
Address ![sorted by Address field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
1436-3798 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4996 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Zhao, G.; Siebert, S.; Enders, A.; Rezaei, E.E.; Yan, C.; Ewert, F. |
Title |
Demand for multi-scale weather data for regional crop modeling |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Volume |
200 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
156-171 |
Keywords |
multi-scale; spatial heterogeneity; spatial resolution; crop model; climate variability; climate-change scenarios; integrated assessment; large-scale; phenological development; agricultural systems; spatial-resolution; data aggregation; european-union; winter-wheat; input data |
Abstract |
A spatial resolution needs to be determined prior to using models to simulate crop yields at a regional scale, but a dilemma exists in compromising between different demands. A fine spatial resolution demands extensive computation load for input data assembly, model runs, and output analysis. A coarse spatial resolution could result in loss of spatial detail in variability. This paper studied the impact of spatial resolution, data aggregation and spatial heterogeneity of weather data on simulations of crop yields, thus providing guidelines for choosing a proper spatial resolution for simulations of crop yields at regional scale. Using a process-based crop model SIMPLACE (LINTUL2) and daily weather data at 1 km resolution we simulated a continuous rainfed winter wheat cropping system at the national scale of Germany. Then we aggregated the weather data to four resolutions from 10 to 100 km, repeated the simulation, compared them with the 1 km results, and correlated the difference with the intra-pixel heterogeneity quantified by an ensemble of four semivariogram models. Aggregation of weather data had small effects over regions with a flat terrain located in northern Germany, but large effects over southern regions with a complex topography. The spatial distribution of yield bias at different spatial resolutions was consistent with the intra-pixel spatial heterogeneity of the terrain and a log-log linear relationship between them was established. By using this relationship we demonstrated the way to optimize the model resolution to minimize both the number of simulation runs and the expected loss of spatial detail in variability due to aggregation effects. We concluded that a high spatial resolution is desired for regions with high spatial environmental heterogeneity, and vice versa. This calls for the development of multi-scale approaches in regional and global crop modeling. The obtained results require substantiation for other production situations, crops, output variables and for different crop models. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
Address ![sorted by Address field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
0168-1923 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4753 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Webber, H.; Zhao, G.; Wolf, J.; Britz, W.; Vries, W. de; Gaiser, T.; Hoffmann, H.; Ewert, F. |
Title |
Climate change impacts on European crop yields: Do we need to consider nitrogen limitation |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Volume |
71 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
123-134 |
Keywords |
Climate impact assessment; Nitrogen limitation; European crop yields; SIMPLACE Crop modelling framework; model calibration; winter-wheat; scale; co2; productivity; agriculture; strategies; scenarios; systems; growth |
Abstract |
Global climate impact studies with crop models suggest that including nitrogen and water limitation causes greater negative climate change impacts on actual yields compared to water-limitation only. We simulated water limited and nitrogen water limited yields across the EU-27 to 2050 for six key crops with the SIMPLACE<LINTUL5, DRUNIR, HEAT> model to assess how important consideration of nitrogen limitation is in climate impact studies for European cropping systems. We further investigated how crop nitrogen use may change under future climate change scenarios. Our results suggest that inclusion of nitrogen limitation hardly changed crop yield response to climate for the spring-sown crops considered (grain maize, potato, and sugar beet). However, for winter-sown crops (winter barley, winter rapeseed and winter wheat), simulated impacts to 2050 were more negative when nitrogen limitation was considered, especially with high levels of water stress. Future nitrogen use rates are likely to decrease due to climate change for spring-sown crops, largely in parallel with their yields. These results imply that climate change impact studies for winter-sown crops should consider N-fertilization. Specification of future N fertilization rates is a methodological challenge that is likely to need integrated assessment models to address. |
Address ![sorted by Address field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
1161-0301 |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4726 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Liu, X.; Lehtonen, H.; Purola, T.; Pavlova, Y.; Rötter, R.; Palosuo, T. |
Title |
Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotations with farm management practices under future pest pressure |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Systems |
Volume |
144 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
65-76 |
Keywords |
Farm management; Dynamic optimization; Crop rotation; Risk aversion; Climate change; Prices; climate-change; sequester carbon; changing climate; food security; challenge; Finland; ensembles; systems; europe; tool |
Abstract |
Agricultural practice is facing multiple challenges under volatile commodity markets, inevitable climate change, mounting pest pressure and various other environment-related constraints. The objective of this research is to present a dynamic optimization model of crop rotations and farm management and show its suitability for economic analysis over a 30 year time period. In this model, we include management practices such as fertilization, fungicide treatment and liming, and apply it in a region in Southwestern Finland. Results show that (i) growing pest pressure favours the cultivation of wheat-oats and wheat-oilseeds combinations, while (ii) market prices largely determine the crops in the rotation plan and the specific management practices adopted. The flexibility of our model can also be utilized in evaluating the value of other management options such as new cultivars under different projections of future climate and market conditions. |
Address ![sorted by Address field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
0308521x |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
CropM, TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4719 |
Permanent link to this record |
|
|
|
Author |
Palosuo, T.; Rotter, R.P.; Salo, T.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Tao, F.; Lehtonen, H. |
Title |
Effects of climate and historical adaptation measures on barley yield trends in Finland |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
Volume |
65 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
221-236 |
Keywords |
adaptation; climate; crop simulation modelling; plant breeding; spring barley; yield gap; crop production; spring barley; quantitative-evaluation; european conditions; cereal cultivars; growing-season; use efficiency; field crops; wheat; northern |
Abstract |
In this study, the WOFOST crop simulation model was used together with comprehensive empirical databases on barley Hordeum vulgare L. to study the contributions of different yield-determining and -limiting factors to observed trends of barley yield in Finland from 1988 to 2008. Simulations were performed at 3 study sites representing different agro-ecological zones, and compared with the data from experimental sites and that reported by local farmers. Yield gaps between simulated potential yields and farmers’ yields and their trends were assessed. Positive observed yield trends of Finnish barley mostly resulted from the development and usage of new, high-yielding cultivars. Simulated trends in climatic potential and water-limited potential yields of individual cultivars showed a slight declining trend. Yield gaps showed an increasing trend in 2 out of 3 study areas. Since the mid-1990s, a major reason for this has been the lack of market and policy incentives favouring crop management decisions, i.e. annual fertilisation, soil maintenance, drainage and crop rotation decisions, aiming for higher yields. The study indicates potential options for increasing or maintaining barley yields in the future. The breeding of new climate-resilient cultivars is the primary option. However, this needs to work alongside overall adjustments to farm management and must be supported by financial incentives for farmers to increase yields. |
Address ![sorted by Address field, descending order (down)](img/sort_desc.gif) |
|
Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
Language |
English |
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
ISSN |
0936-577x |
ISBN |
|
Medium |
Article |
Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4700 |
Permanent link to this record |