Home | << 1 2 3 4 5 >> |
Records | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Author | Lotze-Campen, H.; von Lampe, M.; Kyle, P.; Fujimori, S.; Havlik, P.; van Meijl, H.; Hasegawa, T.; Popp, A.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; Willenbockel, D.; Wise, M. | ||||
Title | Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2014 | Publication | Agricultural Economics | Abbreviated Journal | Agric. Econ. |
Volume | 45 | Issue | 1 | Pages | 103-116 |
Keywords | energy demand; agricultural markets; general equilibrium modeling; partial equilibrium modeling; model comparison; greenhouse-gas emissions; land-use; energy; productivity; scenarios; policies; capture; storage; system | ||||
Abstract | Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high-emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise. | ||||
Address | |||||
Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
ISSN | 0169-5150 | ISBN | Medium | Article | |
Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
Notes | CropM, TradeM | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4532 | ||
Permanent link to this record | |||||
Author | Müller, C.; Robertson, R.D. | ||||
Title | Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2014 | Publication | Agricultural Economics | Abbreviated Journal | Agric. Econ. |
Volume | 45 | Issue | 1 | Pages | 37-50 |
Keywords | climate change; crop modeling; agricultural productivity; land use; greenhouse-gas emissions; soil organic-carbon; sub-saharan africa; climate-change; elevated co2; land-use; system model; wheat yields; maize yields; agriculture | ||||
Abstract | Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land-use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10-38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change. | ||||
Address | |||||
Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
ISSN | 0169-5150 | ISBN | Medium | Article | |
Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
Notes | CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4533 | ||
Permanent link to this record | |||||
Author | Klein, D.; Luderer, G.; Kriegler, E.; Strefler, J.; Bauer, N.; Leimbach, M.; Popp, A.; Dietrich, J.P.; Humpenöder, F.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Edenhofer, O. | ||||
Title | The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2014 | Publication | Climatic Change | Abbreviated Journal | Clim. Change |
Volume | 123 | Issue | 3-4 | Pages | 705-718 |
Keywords | land-use change; bio-energy; greenhouse gases; carbon-dioxide; climate-change; constraints; emissions; economics; storage; costs | ||||
Abstract | This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS. | ||||
Address | |||||
Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
ISSN | 0165-0009 | ISBN | Medium | Article | |
Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
Notes | CropM, ftnotmacsur | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4529 | ||
Permanent link to this record | |||||
Author | Biewald, A.; Rolinski, S.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Schmitz, C.; Dietrich, J.P. | ||||
Title | Valuing the impact of trade on local blue water | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2014 | Publication | Ecological Economics | Abbreviated Journal | Ecol. Econ. |
Volume | 101 | Issue | Pages | 43-53 | |
Keywords | virtual water; blue and green water; water scarcity; agricultural trade; global vegetation model; virtual water; crop trade; resources; scarcity; food; footprints; products; flows; green | ||||
Abstract | International trade of agricultural goods impacts local water scarcity. By quantifying the effect of trade on crop production on grid-cell level and combining it with cell- and crop-specific virtual water contents, we are able to determine green and blue water consumption and savings. Connecting the information on trade-related blue water usage to water shadow prices gives us the possibility to value the impact of international food crop trade on local blue water resources. To determine the trade-related value of the blue water usage, we employ two models: first, an economic land- and water-use model, simulating agricultural trade, production and water-shadow prices and second, a global vegetation and agricultural model, modeling the blue and green virtual water content of the traded crops. Our study found that globally, the international trade of food crops saves blue water worth 2.4 billion US$. This net saving occurs despite the fact that Europe exports virtual blue water in food crops worth 3.1 billion US$. Countries in the Middle East and South Asia profit from trade by importing water intensive crops, countries in Southern Europe on the other hand export water intensive agricultural goods from water scarce sites, deteriorating local water scarcity. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. | ||||
Address | |||||
Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
Language | English | Summary Language | Original Title | ||
Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
ISSN | 0921-8009 | ISBN | Medium | Article | |
Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
Notes | CropM, TradeM, ftnotmacsur | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 4512 | ||
Permanent link to this record | |||||
Author | Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Åby, B.A.; Persson, T.; Höglind, M.; Mittenzwei, K. | ||||
Title | Combining models to estimate the impacts of future climate scenarios on feed supply, greenhouse gas emissions and economic performance on dairy farms in Norway | Type | Journal Article | ||
Year | 2017 | Publication | Agricultural Systems | Abbreviated Journal | Agric. Syst. |
Volume | 157 | Issue | Pages | 157-169 | |
Keywords | Climate change; Dairy farming; Dry matter yield; Economics; Greenhouse gas emission; Modelling | ||||
Abstract | • This study combines crop, livestock and economic models. • Models interaction is through use of relevant input and output variables. • Future climate change will result in increased grass and wheat dry matter yields. • Changes in grass, wheat and milk yields in future reduce farm emissions intensity. • Changes in future dry matter yields and emissions lead to increased profitability. There is a scientific consensus that the future climate change will affect grass and crop dry matter (DM) yields. Such yield changes may entail alterations to farm management practices to fulfill the feed requirements and reduce the farm greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from dairy farms. While a large number of studies have focused on the impacts of projected climate change on a single farm output (e.g. GHG emissions or economic performance), several attempts have been made to combine bio-economic systems models with GHG accounting frameworks. In this study, we aimed to determine the physical impacts of future climate scenarios on grass and wheat DM yields, and demonstrate the effects such changes in future feed supply may have on farm GHG emissions and decision-making processes. For this purpose, we combined four models: BASGRA and CSM-CERES-Wheat models for simulating forage grass DM and wheat DM grain yields respectively; HolosNor for estimating the farm GHG emissions; and JORDMOD for calculating the impacts of changes in the climate and management on land use and farm economics. Four locations, with varying climate and soil conditions were included in the study: south-east Norway, south-west Norway, central Norway and northern Norway. Simulations were carried out for baseline (1961–1990) and future (2046–2065) climate conditions (projections based on two global climate models and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B GHG emission scenario), and for production conditions with and without a milk quota. The GHG emissions intensities (kilogram carbon dioxide equivalent: kgCO2e emissions per kg fat and protein corrected milk: FPCM) varied between 0.8 kg and 1.23 kg CO2e (kg FPCM)− 1, with the lowest and highest emissions found in central Norway and south-east Norway, respectively. Emission intensities were generally lower under future compared to baseline conditions due mainly to higher future milk yields and to some extent to higher crop yields. The median seasonal above-ground timothy grass yield varied between 11,000 kg and 16,000 kg DM ha− 1 and was higher in all projected future climate conditions than in the baseline. The spring wheat grain DM yields simulated for the same weather conditions within each climate projection varied between 2200 kg and 6800 kg DM ha− 1. Similarly, the farm profitability as expressed by total national land rents varied between 1900 million Norwegian krone (NOK) for median yields under baseline climate conditions up to 3900 million NOK for median yield under future projected climate conditions. |
||||
Address | |||||
Corporate Author | Thesis | ||||
Publisher | Place of Publication | Editor | |||
Language | Summary Language | phase 2 | Original Title | ||
Series Editor | Series Title | Abbreviated Series Title | |||
Series Volume | Series Issue | Edition | |||
ISSN | ISBN | Medium | |||
Area | Expedition | Conference | |||
Notes | CropM, LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur | Approved | no | ||
Call Number | MA @ admin @ | Serial | 5172 | ||
Permanent link to this record |