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Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Ferrise, R.; Rodríguez, A.; Lorite, I.J.; Bindi, M.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Palosuo, T.; Pirttioja, N.; Baranowski, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Chen, Y.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Höhn, J.G.; Jurecka, F.; Kersebaum, H.-C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lana, M.; Mechiche-Alami, A.; Minet, J.; Montesino, M.; Nendel, C.; Porter, J.R.; Ruget, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Steinmetz, Z.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; de Wit, A.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Title |
Applying adaptation response surfaces for managing wheat under perturbed climate and elevated CO2 in a Mediterranean environment |
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Report |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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1ß |
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C4.4-D |
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This study developed Adaptation Response Surfaces and applied them to a study case in North East Spain on winter crops adaptation, using rainfed winter wheat as reference crop. Crop responses to perturbed temperature, precipitation and CO2 were simulated by an ensemble of crop models. A set of combined changes on cultivars (on vernalisation requirements and phenology) and management (on sowing date and irrigation) were considered as adaptation options and simulated by the crop model ensemble. The discussion focused on two main issues: 1) the recommended adaptation options for different soil types and perturbation levels, and 2) the need of applying our current knowledge (AOCK) when building a crop model ensemble. The study has been published Agricultural Systems (Available online 25 January 2017, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.01.009 ), and the text below consists on extracts from that paper. |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4955 |
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Porter, J.R.; Christensen, S. |
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Title |
Deconstructing crop processes and models via identities |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
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Plant Cell and Environment |
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Plant Cell and Environment |
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36 |
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11 |
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1919-1925 |
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Biomass; Carbon Dioxide/pharmacology; Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/drug effects/*physiology; *Models, Biological; Kaya-Porter identity; crop models; deconstruction; resource use efficiency |
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This paper is part review and part opinion piece; it has three parts of increasing novelty and speculation in approach. The first presents an overview of how some of the major crop simulation models approach the issue of simulating the responses of crops to changing climatic and weather variables, mainly atmospheric CO2 concentration and increased and/or varying temperatures. It illustrates an important principle in models of a single cause having alternative effects and vice versa. The second part suggests some features, mostly missing in current crop models, that need to be included in the future, focussing on extreme events such as high temperature or extreme drought. The final opinion part is speculative but novel. It describes an approach to deconstruct resource use efficiencies into their constituent identities or elements based on the Kaya-Porter identity, each of which can be examined for responses to climate and climatic change. We give no promise that the final part is correct’, but we hope it can be a stimulation to thought, hypothesis and experiment, and perhaps a new modelling approach. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0140-7791 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4799 |
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Toscano, P.; Genesio, L.; Crisci, A.; Vaccari, F.P.; Ferrari, E.; La Cava, P.; Porter, J.R.; Gioli, B. |
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Empirical modelling of regional and national durum wheat quality |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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204 |
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67-78 |
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durum wheat; grain protein content; forecasting tool; modelling; gridded data; red winter-wheat; grain quality; climate-change; mediterranean conditions; interannual variability; protein-composition; co2 concentration; vapor-pressure; carbon-dioxide; crop yield |
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The production of durum wheat in the Mediterranean basin is expected to experience increased variability in yield and quality as a consequence of climate change. To assess how environmental variables and agronomic practices affect grain protein content (GPC), a novel approach based on monthly gridded input data has been implemented to develop empirical model, and validated on historical time series to assess its capability to reproduce observed spatial and inter-annual GPC variability. The model was applied in four Italian regions and at the whole national scale and proved reliable and usable for operational purposes also in a forecast ‘real-time’ mode before harvesting. Precipitable water during autumn to winter and air temperature from anthesis to harvest were extremely important influences on GPC; these and additional variables, included in a linear model, were able to account for 95% of the variability in GPC that has occurred in the last 15 years in Italy. Our results are a unique example of the use of modelling as a predictive real-time platform and are a useful tool to understand better and forecast the impacts of future climate change projections on durum wheat production and quality. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4818 |
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Ghaley, B.B.; Vesterdal, L.; Porter, J.R. |
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Title |
Quantification and valuation of ecosystem services in diverse production systems for informed decision-making |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
Publication |
Environmental Science & Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental Science & Policy |
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39 |
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139-149 |
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bio-physical quantification; combined food and energy system; economic valuation field measurements; land management; marketable and non-marketable ecosystem services; land-use change; carbon; farm; efficiency; crops; china; model; scale; field |
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The empirical evidence of decline in ecosystem services (ES) over the last century has reinforced the call for ES quantification, monitoring and valuation. Usually, only provisioning ES are marketable and accounted for, whereas regulating, supporting and cultural ES are typically non-marketable and overlooked in connection with land-use or management decisions. The objective of this study was to quantify and value total ES (marketable and non-marketable) of diverse production systems and management intensities in Denmark to provide a basis for decisions based on economic values. The production systems were conventional wheat (Cwheat), a combined food and energy (CFE) production system and beech forest. Marketable (provisioning ES) and non-marketable ES (supporting, regulating and cultural) ES were quantified by dedicated on-site field measurements supplemented by literature data. The value of total ES was highest in CFE (US$ 3142 ha(-1) yr(-1)) followed by Cwheat (US$ 2767 ha (1) yr(-1)) and beech forest (US$ 2328 ha(-1) yr(-1)). As the production system shifted from Cwheat – CFE-beech, the marketable ES share decreased from 88% to 75% in CFE and 55% in beech whereas the non-marketable ES share increased to 12%, 25% and 45% of total ES in Cwheat, CFE and beech respectively, demonstrating production system and management effects on ES values. Total ES valuation, disintegrated into marketable and non-marketable share is a potential way forward to value ES and `tune’ our production systems for enhanced ES provision. Such monetary valuation can be used by policy makers and land managers as a tool to assess ES value and monitor the sustained flow of ES. The application of ES-based valuation for land management can enhance ES provision for maintaining the productive capacity of the land without depending on the external fossil-based fertilizer and chemical input. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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1462-9011 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4623 |
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Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, H.; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.; Christian,; Olesen, J.E.; Van Ittersum, M.K.; Janssen, S.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartošová, L.; Asseng, S. |
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Title |
Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change |
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Report |
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Year |
2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
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D-C0.3 |
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The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2089 |
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