Records |
Author |
Mitter, H.; Techen, A.-K.; Sinabell, F.; Helming, K.; Kok, K.; Priess, J.A.; Schmid, E.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Holman, I.; Lehtonen, H.; Leip, A.; Le Mouel, C.; Mathijs, E.; Mehdi, B.; Michetti, M.; Mittenzwei, K.; Mora, O.; Oygarden, L.; Reidsma, P.; Schaldach, R.; Schoenhart, M. |
Title |
A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Journal of Environmental Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Environ. Manage. |
Volume |
252 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
Unsp 109701 |
Keywords |
EUR-Agri-SSP; Consistent storylines; Narrative; Integrated assessment; Social environmental system; Climate change; land-use change; global environmental-change; climate-change; scenario; development; transdisciplinary research; sustainability science; integrated-assessment; future; adaptation; framework |
Abstract |
Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs- to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports intercomparisons of IAAS. |
Address |
2020-02-14 |
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English |
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Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0301-4797 |
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Article |
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Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5222 |
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Author |
Kipling, R.P.; Topp, C.F.E.; Bannink, A.; Bartley, D.J.; Blanco-Penedo, I.; Cortignani, R.; del Prado, A.; Dono, G.; Faverdin, P.; Graux, A.-I.; Hutchings, N.J.; Lauwers, L.; Gulzari, S.O.; Reidsma, P.; Rolinski, S.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Sandars, D.L.; Sandor, R.; Schoenhart, M.; Seddaiu, G.; van Middelkoop, J.; Shrestha, S.; Weindl, I.; Eory, V. |
Title |
To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
Volume |
120 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
Unsp 104492 |
Keywords |
Adaptation; Agricultural modelling; Climate change; Research challenges; greenhouse-gas emissions; farm-level adaptation; land-use; food; security; adapting agriculture; livestock production; decision-making; change impacts; dairy farms; crop |
Abstract |
Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change. |
Address |
2020-02-14 |
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Place of Publication |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
1364-8152 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
Area |
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Conference |
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Notes |
LiveM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5223 |
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Author |
Milford, A.B.; Le Mouel, C.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S. |
Title |
Drivers of meat consumption |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Appetite |
Abbreviated Journal |
Appetite |
Volume |
141 |
Issue |
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Pages |
Unsp 104313 |
Keywords |
Meat consumption; Nutrition transition; Climate change mitigation; Cross-country analysis; nutrition transition; food; sustainability; globalization; countries; future; health; income; price |
Abstract |
Increasing global levels of meat consumption are a threat to the environment and to human health. To identify measures that may change consumption patterns towards more plant-based foods, it is necessary to improve our understanding of the causes behind the demand for meat. In this paper we use data from 137 different countries to identify and assess factors that influence meat consumption at the national level using a cross-country multivariate regression analysis. We specify either total meat or ruminant meat as the dependent variable and we consider a broad range of potential drivers of meat consumption. The combination of explanatory variables we use is new for this type of analysis. In addition, we estimate the relative importance of the different drivers. We find that income per capita followed by rate of urbanisation are the two most important drivers of total meat consumption per capita. Income per capita and natural endowment factors are major drivers of ruminant meat consumption per capita. Other drivers are Western culture, Muslim religion, female labour participation, economic and social globalisation and meat prices. The main identified drivers of meat demand are difficult to influence through direct policy intervention. Thus, acting indirectly on consumers’ preferences and consumption habits (for instance through information, education policy and increased availability of ready-made plant based products) could be of key importance for mitigating the rise of meat consumption per capita all over the world. |
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2020-02-14 |
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English |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
0195-6663 |
ISBN |
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Article |
Area |
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Conference |
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Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5224 |
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Author |
Pasqui, M.; Di Giuseppe, E. |
Title |
Climate change, future warming, and adaptation in Europe |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Animal Frontiers |
Abbreviated Journal |
Animal Frontiers |
Volume |
9 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
6-11 |
Keywords |
heat waves; impacts; perception; vulnerability; temperature-humidity index; extremes indexes |
Abstract |
In recent decades, the increased temperatures reported in Europe and in the Mediterranean basin represent one of the clearest footprints of climate change along with increased frequency of heat waves. These climate modifications put the environment and human activities under strong pressure with a resulting need for designing new adaptation and mitigation strategies. The climate change challenge is unprecedented for humanity and is recognized as a priority topic for future research. Changes in the way we think and behave are critical challenges at the global and regional levels. |
Address |
2020-06-08 |
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Notes |
LiveM, ft_macsur |
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no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5236 |
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Author |
Trnka, M.; Feng, S.; Semenov, M.A.; Olesen, J.E.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Roetter, R.P.; Semeradova, D.; Klem, K.; Huang, W.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Meitner, J.; Balek, J.; Havlik, P.; Buntgen, U. |
Title |
Mitigation efforts will not fully alleviate the increase in water scarcity occurrence probability in wheat-producing areas |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Science Advances |
Abbreviated Journal |
Sci. Adv. |
Volume |
5 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
eaau2406 |
Keywords |
climate-change impacts; sub-saharan africa; atmospheric co2; crop; yields; drought; agriculture; variability; irrigation; adaptation; carbon |
Abstract |
Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe water scarcity (SWS) events, which negatively affect rain-fed crops such as wheat, a key source of calories and protein for humans. Here, we develop a method to simultaneously quantify SWS over the world’s entire wheat-growing area and calculate the probabilities of multiple/sequential SWS events for baseline and future climates. Our projections show that, without climate change mitigation (representative concentration pathway 8.5), up to 60% of the current wheat-growing area will face simultaneous SWS events by the end of this century, compared to 15% today. Climate change stabilization in line with the Paris Agreement would substantially reduce the negative effects, but they would still double between 2041 and 2070 compared to current conditions. Future assessments of production shocks in food security should explicitly include the risk of severe, prolonged, and near- simultaneous droughts across key world wheat-producing areas. |
Address |
2020-02-14 |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Series Editor |
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Edition |
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ISSN |
2375-2548 |
ISBN |
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Area |
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Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5227 |
Permanent link to this record |