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Schönhart, M. |
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Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Impacts at Landscape Level in the Austrian Mostviertel Region |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-59 |
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Climate change poses fundamental challenges on agriculture. It triggers autonomous adaptation responses of famers and thereby impacts the success of climate change mitigation. Integrated modelling frameworks (IMF) on land use serve as decision support instruments under such conditions by considering climate signals and accounting for combined mitigation and adaptation policies. We apply an IMF at the farm level in two contrasting grassland and cropland dominated landscapes in Austria to analyze climate change impacts on land use as well as impacts from mitigation and adaptation policies on the abiotic and biotic environment and the landscape. Results show that the impacts on farm gross margins and the abiotic and biotic environment are substantial either directly from climate change (e.g. changing erosion levels) or triggered via adaptation responses (i.e. land use and management change). Average gross margins increase between 1% and 12% depending on the case study landscape, the climate change scenario, and the policy scenario. With respect to biodiversity indicators, land use changes in the adaptation scenario decrease plant species diversity on farmland by 13% on average and losses are up to 80% for some farms. These changes are driven by policies in the adaptation scenario as responses on climate change in the absence of policies are modest with minor impacts on biodiversity. Results indicate the effectiveness of climate change adaptation in increasing farm incomes and the need to coordinate mitigation and adaptation policies to manage environmental outcomes. The IMF turns out to be effective in revealing heterogeneity of climate change impacts among farms and regions and linkages among adaptation and mitigation policies. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2174 |
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Del Prado, A.; Van den Pol-van Dasselaar, A.; Chadwick, D.; Misselbrook, T.; Sandars, D.; Audsley, E.; Mosquera-Losada, M.; R, |
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Synergies between mitigation and adaptation to Climate Change in grassland-based farming systems |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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6 |
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D-L3.3 |
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Climate change mitigation and adaptation have generally been considered in separate settings for both scientific and policy viewpoints. Recently, it has been stressed (e.g. by the latest IPCC reports) the importance to consider both mitigation and adaptation from land management together. To date, although there is already large amount of studies considering climate mitigation and adaptation in relation to grassland-based systems, there are no studies that analyse the potential synergies and tradeoffs for the main climate change mitigation and adaptation measures within the current European Policy context. This paper reviews which mitigation and adaptation measures interact with each other and how, and it explores the potential limitations and strengths of the different policy instruments that may have an effect in European grassland-based livestock systems. No Label |
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2109 |
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Jancic, M. |
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Climate change adaptation in maize production in Serbia |
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2016 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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9 C6 - |
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Sp9-3 |
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Climate change is noticed and well established phenomenon, described as change in the statistical properties of the climate system, considered over long period of time, regardless of cause (Houghton, 1996). This change has been monitored on global (Rosenzweig et al., 1994; Harrison et al., 1995; Wolf et al., 1995; Watson et al., 1996; Downing et al., 2000; Sathaye et al., 1997; Sirotenko et al., 1997) and regional scale (Alexandrov et al., 2002; Lalic et al., 2012; Vučetić, 2011) by researchers, organizations and part of various programmes (IPCC, UNESCO Climate Change Initiative). In a same time, it was analysed change in agroclimatic indices, soil and water balance, crop development and yield, that quantify climate change impact on agricultural production. In recent regional studies and research projects (COST 734, 2008; ADAGIO, 2009), it was estimated and quantified climate change impact on yield and development in crop production of Central and Eastern European countries and Mediterranean region. The research showed a decrease in yield in several major crops, important in national food production and part of economy. A high variability in yield from year to year and decrease in yield was showed for most cereals. |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4856 |
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Zimmermann, A.; Witzke, H.-P.; Heckelei, T. |
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Filling gaps: AgMIP scenario results from CAPRI |
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2013 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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2 |
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D-T1.4 |
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Climate change impacts on food production, socioeconomic changes (population and income growth in large parts of the world) and biofuel policies affecting demand quantities have risen scientific, political and public interest in long-term forecasts on food security. Whereas first quantitative analyses from global economic models are starting to appear (e.g. (von Lampe et al., under review)), similar studies on smaller regional scales are not yet available. However, acknowledging that climate change affects crop yields differently across scales and regions (e.g. (Reidsma et al., 2007)) and considering the specific political setting given through the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in Europe, the MACSUR project focuses on the impact of climate change and socioeconomic changes on European agriculture and its contribution to global food security. We present a Europe-wide analysis of the effect of selected climate and socioeconomic scenarios on food security in terms of food prices using the Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact modelling system (CAPRI). No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2246 |
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Hoffmann, H. |
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Title |
Effects of soil and climate input data aggregation on modelling regional crop yields |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-22 |
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Climate and soil data at coarse resolution are often used as input for crop models in order to simulate crop yields at larger scales, e.g. at regional or national level, potentially leading to biased yield estimates. While the response to data resolution differs between crop models, it is unknown how the spatial aggregation of different types of input data interacts and contributes to this so-called aggregation effect. An ensemble of crop models was run with soil and climate input data at different spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. For this purpose, climate time series were averaged spatially and soil data was aggregated by selecting the dominant soil type with a representative soil profile based on a soil map at the scale of 1:50,000. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under potential, water-limited and water-nitrogen-limited production conditions. Crop yields from soil and climate aggregation were evaluated separately.Mean of crop yields of the region and over the simulation period were reasonably reproduced by most models regardless of input data resolution, either using aggregated soil or climate as input. However, larger aggregation effects were observed at higher temporal resolution (e.g. annual yields). Models revealed similar spatial patterns in yield. Being distinct for soil and climate aggregation, these patterns indicate a larger impact of soil aggregation on the spatial distribution of simulated crop yield for this region. Additionally, models differed considerably in their susceptibility to input data aggregation. The results reveal the importance of model ensemble assessments and the relevance of data aggregation when short simulation periods are considered. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2137 |
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