Abstract: THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 x 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.

Abstract: This document is intended to aid in the development of regional Representative Agricultural Pathways in Europe for use in MACSUR case studies, especially the regional pilot studies. We present overviews of existing characterisations of RCPs, SSPs, SPAs, RAPs and more detailed descriptions of the scenarios and assumptions relevant for MACSUR. No Label

Abstract: This deliverable lays out the work as done as part of MACSUR CropM on data, with the  focus on improving data management and have shared data curation for future use. The  issue was tackled with help from the MACSUR central hub coordination in the form of Jason  Jargenson from University of Reading. The data management as proposed and  implemented in this deliverable is very much a bottom up process, in which partners in a  meeting in Spring 2013 in Aarhus investigated the best way forward for data management  across activities in CropM.As a follow up to this, the work was mainly divided in three  parts:  1. The  Open  Data  Journal  for  Agricultural  Research,  mainly  focused  on  long  term  data  archival  and  citation  of  data  sets,  as  input  and  outputs  to  the  modelling  work,  as  part  of  MACSUR,  lead  by  Wageningen  UR  2. The  Geonetwork  data  catalog  hosted  at  Aarhus  Universitet,  that  allows  for  operational  access  and  storage  of  data  sets  as  part  of  the  ongoing  work,  also  for  restricted  access  of  the  consortium,  and  as  a  first  step  to  visualization,  lead  by  Aarhus  Universitet.  3. The  work  on  rating  data  sets,  that  provides  a  tool  for  improving  data  set  access  in  an  early  phase  for  connecting  them  to  models,  lead  by  Reading  University.  At the end of the deliverable some next steps are giving for data activities in the context  of AgMIP and beyond. No Label