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Schönhart, M., Schauppenlehner, T., Schmid, E., & Sinabell, F. (2014). Regional Pilot Case Study Mostviertel – AT: Preliminary Results. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: An integrated modelling framework (IMF) is developed to analyse impacts of climate andpolicy changes on farm welfare and the environment. The IMF is applied on two contrasting grassland (south) and cropland (north) dominated Austrian landscapes. The IMF combines the crop rotation model CropRota, the bio-physical process model EPIC and the bio-economic farm model FAMOS[space] and applies combined climate change and policy scenarios. Changing policies reduce farm gross margins by -36% and -5% in the two landscapes respectively. Climate change increases gross margins and farms can reach pre-reform levels on average. Climate induced intensification such as removing of landscape elements andincreasing fertilization can be moderated by an agri-environmental program (AEP). However, productivity gains from climate change increase the opportunity costs for AEP participation.
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Schönhart, M. (2014). Uncertainty analysis and management in the regional pilot case study ‘Mostviertel region. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: An integrated modelling framework (IMF) is developed to analyse impacts of climate andpolicy changes on farm welfare and the environment. The IMF is applied on two contrasting grassland (south) and cropland (north) dominated Austrian landscapes. The IMF combines the crop rotation model CropRota, the bio-physical process model EPIC and the bio-economic farm model FAMOS[space] and applies combined climate change and policy scenarios. Changing policies reduce farm gross margins by -36% and -5% in the two landscapes respectively. Climate change increases gross margins and farms can reach pre-reform levels on average. Climate induced intensification such as removing of landscape elements andincreasing fertilization can be moderated by an agri-environmental program (AEP). However, productivity gains from climate change increase the opportunity costs for AEP participation.
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Schönhart, M., Mitter, H., Schmid, E., Heinrich, G., & Gobiet, A. (2014). Integrated analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture. German Journal of Agricultural Economics, 63(3), 156–176.
Abstract: An integrated modelling framework (IMF) has been developed and applied to analyse climate change impacts and the effectiveness of adaptation measures in Austrian agriculture. The IMF couples the crop rotation model CropRota, the bio-physical process model EPIC and the bottom-up economic land use model PASMA at regional level (NUTS-3) considering agri-environmental indicators. Four contrasting regional climate model (RCM) simulations represent climate change until 2050. The RCM simulations are applied to a baseline and three adaptation and policy scenarios. Climate change increases crop productivity on national average in the IMF. Changes in average gross margins at national level range from 0% to + 5% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. The impacts at NUTS-3 level range from -5% to + 7% between the baseline and the three adaptation and policy scenarios. Adaptation measures such as planting of winter cover crops, reduced tillage and irrigation are effective in reducing yield losses, increasing revenues, or in improving environmental states under climate change. Future research should account for extreme weather events in order to analyse whether average productivity gains at the aggregated level suffice to cover costs from expected higher climate variability.
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Schönhart, M. (2015). Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Impacts at Field and Farm level in the Austrian Mostviertel Region (Vol. 4).
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Schönhart, M. (2015). Contributions from bio-eocnomic farm models to the analysis of climate change adaptation: lessons from MACSUR regional pilot studies (Vol. 4).
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