Abstract: A requirement for successful integration of soil, crop and economic models is a relevant interface of the three. Economic farming models deal with choice of crops, crop management during growing season and stock management after harvest. With detailed daily weather information the state of the soil might be simulated so that a suitable sowing date can be estimated. Moreover with rational beliefs with respect to future crop prices, and with a crop model which responds to management, the management during the growing season might be optimized with respect to choice of cultivar, fertilization and irrigation. So far, as reflected by Müller and Robertson (2014), predictions of future crop yields according to crop models take only to small extent such farmer responses into account, and might therefore overestimate the responses of crop harvests to climate.Comparison of soil, crop and economic simulations with observed weather and crop outcomes might lead to estimation/calibration of unobserved parameters in all models. Such exercises need generic soil, crop and economic models which do not leave modelling outcomes to the crop modeller’s or economist’s discretion. No Label

Abstract: Adaptation can reduce climate change risks to crop production and is best analyzed at local scales considering regional specificities. Uncertainty inherent in modelling adaptation options is due to climate projections, downscaling and imperfections of crop models. The challenge of making effective adaptation decisions requires powerful approaches for exploiting the potential of genotype by environment by management interactions, and for generating projections informed with uncertainty.Here we present a methodology that constructs impact response surfaces (IRSs) from an ensemble of crop models and applies these to explore the adaptation potential of rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain) in a water-limited environment. The simulation experiment includes: 1) a systematic sensitivity analysis to changes to baseline temperature and precipitation (1981-2010) through a delta change approach that accounts for seasonal differences, 2) three levels of CO2 representing present-day and future conditions until 2050 (A1B scenario), and 3) soil profiles representative for the variable conditions around Lleida. The adaptation simulations represent adjusted management practices about sowing, supplementary irrigation, and the thermal and vernalisation requirements of cultivars used.A pre-selection of the adaptation options was done iteratively, in ranges supported by literature review of crop adaptation in the Mediterranean (e.g. shifts from current sowing date between -30 and +45 days). This procedure allowed to identify a limited number of effective and feasible adaptations to be evaluated combining IRSs and probabilistic projections of climate change. No Label

Abstract: Adaption to climate change in the context of agriculture involves collaborative planning and development of practices which is deemed more sustainable than preceeding practices. It is however not given that sustainable development will be the outcome of such efforts. In some cases, even motivated participants experience that despite good intentions, high levels of knowledge, feasible models, appropriate technologies and many other factors present, they still might not succeed bringing about the desired change. The reasons for this can not easily be reduced to just one factor, but is very likely to be the outcome of highly complex interactions between social, technological, institutional, or even personal factors. The report documents attempts to understand the complexities of climate change adaption in a Danish water catchment, Lundgaards Bæk, which is dominated by dairy farming. As part of the EU projects AQUARIUS and MACSUR, a local action group was formed which was composed of local farmers, local agricultural advisors, advisors from the national agricultural advisory service, environmental planners from the local municipality, and environmental planners from the national environmental agency in Denmark. The action group was supposed to develop specific measures, which were supposed to lead to an overall reduction in nitrogen loading of the neighboring fjord, Mariager Fjord. The report addresses three related research themes: (1) how do the stakeholders in question interact during the process of climate change adaption, (2) when do the stakeholders encounter opportunities and barriers during the process, and finally (3) does the adaption process in question lead to the desired outcomes? The empirical background of the report is a detailed process study of dynamics within a group of stakeholders, including farmers and extension officers, who were supposed to develop sustainable management practices in order to reduce nitrogen leaching to the Mariager Fjord. The study is based on the assumption that in order for research and policy to contribute to sustainable practices, deeper understanding of complex dynamics within stakeholder partnerships is needed. Based on a theoretical framework derived from social learning, adaptive co-management and Andrew Pickering’s notion of ‘the mangle’, different in-depth explanations to why sustainable development did not occur, are offered. One explanation concerns social-psychological dynamics of knowledge. Another explanation concerns the mechanisms by which social and material forces affect outcomes of the adaption process. The report concludes by exploring the study’s relevance in relation to policy, research and practice, followed by suggestions for further in-depth case studies and experimentation in practice. No Label