| Records |
| Author |
Elliott, J.; Müller, C.; Deryng, D.; Chryssanthacopoulos, J.; Boote, K.J.; Büchner, M.; Foster, I.; Glotter, M.; Heinke, J.; Iizumi, T.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Mueller, N.D.; Ray, D.K.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Sheffield, J. |
| Title |
The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison: data and modeling protocols for Phase 1 (v1.0) |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Geoscientific Model Development |
Abbreviated Journal |
Geosci. Model Dev. |
| Volume |
8 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
261-277 |
| Keywords |
land-surface model; climate-change; systems simulation; high-resolution; water; carbon; yield; agriculture; patterns; growth |
Abstract  |
We present protocols and input data for Phase 1 of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison, a project of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). The project includes global simulations of yields, phenologies, and many land-surface fluxes using 12-15 modeling groups for many crops, climate forcing data sets, and scenarios over the historical period from 1948 to 2012. The primary outcomes of the project include (1) a detailed comparison of the major differences and similarities among global models commonly used for large-scale climate impact assessment, (2) an evaluation of model and ensemble hindcasting skill, (3) quantification of key uncertainties from climate input data, model choice, and other sources, and (4) a multi-model analysis of the agricultural impacts of large-scale climate extremes from the historical record. |
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English |
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| ISSN |
1991-9603 |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4559 |
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| Author |
Calanca, P.; Semenov, M.A. |
| Title |
Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Theoretical and Applied Climatology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Theor. Appl. Climatol. |
| Volume |
113 |
Issue |
3-4 |
Pages |
445-455 |
| Keywords |
stochastic weather generators; regional climate; lars-wg; daily; precipitation; models; simulation; europe; temperature; variability; heatwaves |
| Abstract |
We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level. |
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0177-798x 1434-4483 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4484 |
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Hoffmann, H.; Zhao, G.; Asseng, S.; Bindi, M.; Biernath, C.; Constantin, J.; Coucheney, E.; Dechow, R.; Doro, L.; Eckersten, H.; Gaiser, T.; Grosz, B.; Heinlein, F.; Kassie, B.T.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Klein, C.; Kuhnert, M.; Lewan, E.; Moriondo, M.; Nendel, C.; Priesack, E.; Raynal, H.; Roggero, P.P.; Rötter, R.P.; Siebert, S.; Specka, X.; Tao, F.; Teixeira, E.; Trombi, G.; Wallach, D.; Weihermüller, L.; Yeluripati, J.; Ewert, F. |
| Title |
Impact of spatial soil and climate input data aggregation on regional yield simulations |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
PLoS One |
Abbreviated Journal |
PLoS One |
| Volume |
11 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
e0151782 |
| Keywords |
systems simulation; nitrogen dynamics; winter-wheat; crop models; data resolution; scale; water; variability; calibration; weather |
| Abstract |
We show the error in water-limited yields simulated by crop models which is associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate input data. Crop simulations at large scales (regional, national, continental) frequently use input data of low resolution. Therefore, climate and soil data are often generated via averaging and sampling by area majority. This may bias simulated yields at large scales, varying largely across models. Thus, we evaluated the error associated with spatially aggregated soil and climate data for 14 crop models. Yields of winter wheat and silage maize were simulated under water-limited production conditions. We calculated this error from crop yields simulated at spatial resolutions from 1 to 100 km for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Most models showed yields biased by <15% when aggregating only soil data. The relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of most models using aggregated soil data was in the range or larger than the inter-annual or inter-model variability in yields. This error increased further when both climate and soil data were aggregated. Distinct error patterns indicate that the rMAE may be estimated from few soil variables. Illustrating the range of these aggregation effects across models, this study is a first step towards an ex-ante assessment of aggregation errors in large-scale simulations. |
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English |
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1932-6203 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4725 |
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| Author |
Francone, C.; Cassardo, C.; Richiardone, R.; Confalonieri, R. |
| Title |
Sensitivity Analysis and Investigation of the Behaviour of the UTOPIA Land-Surface Process Model: A Case Study for Vineyards in Northern Italy |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Boundary-Layer Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Boundary-Layer Meteorology |
| Volume |
144 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
419-430 |
| Keywords |
energy balance; hydrological balance; land-surface model; morris method; vegetation cover; vitis vinifera l.; atmosphere transfer scheme; environmental-models; energy-balance; uncertainty; simulation; canopy |
| Abstract |
We used sensitivity-analysis techniques to investigate the behaviour of the land-surface model UTOPIA while simulating the micrometeorology of a typical northern Italy vineyard (Vitis vinifera L.) under average climatic conditions. Sensitivity-analysis experiments were performed by sampling the vegetation parameter hyperspace using the Morris method and quantifying the parameter relevance across a wide range of soil conditions. This method was used since it proved its suitability for models with high computational time or with a large number of parameters, in a variety of studies performed on different types of biophysical models. The impact of input variability was estimated on reference model variables selected among energy (e.g. net radiation, sensible and latent heat fluxes) and hydrological (e.g. soilmoisture, surface runoff, drainage) budget components. Maximum vegetation cover and maximum leaf area index were ranked as the most relevant parameters, with sensitivity indices exceeding the remaining parameters by about one order of magnitude. Soil variability had a high impact on the relevance of most of the vegetation parameters: coefficients of variation calculated on the sensitivity indices estimated for the different soils often exceeded 100 %. The only exceptions were represented by maximum vegetation cover and maximum leaf area index, which showed a low variability in sensitivity indices while changing soil type, and confirmed their key role in affecting model results. |
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English |
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0006-8314 1573-1472 |
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CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4470 |
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| Author |
Dumont, B.; Basso, B.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F. |
| Title |
Climatic risk assessment to improve nitrogen fertilisation recommendations: A strategic crop model-based approach |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
| Volume |
65 |
Issue |
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Pages |
10-17 |
| Keywords |
climatic variability; stochastically generated weather; lars-wg; crop model; stics; nitrogen management; yield skewness; wheat yield; generic model; stics; management; variability; simulation; field; balances; impact |
| Abstract |
Within the context of nitrogen (N) management, since 1950, with the rapid intensification of agriculture, farmers have often applied much larger fertiliser quantities than what was required to reach the yield potential. However, to prevent pollution of surface and groundwater induced by nitrates, The European Community launched The European Nitrates Directive 91/6/76/EEC. In 2002, in Wallonia (Belgium), the Nitrates Directive has been transposed under the Sustainable Nitrogen Management in Agriculture Program (PGDA), with the aim of maintaining productivity and revenue for the country’s farmers, while reducing the environmental impact of excessive N application. A feasible approach for addressing climatic uncertainty lies in the use of crop models such as the one commonly known as STICS (simulateur multidisciplinaire pour les cultures standard). These models allow the impact on crops of the interaction between cropping systems and climatic records to be assessed. Comprehensive historical climatic records are rare, however, and therefore the yield distribution values obtained using such an approach can be discontinuous. In order to obtain better and more detailed yield distribution information, the use of a high number of stochastically generated climate time series was proposed, relying on the LARS-Weather Generator. The study focused on the interactions between varying N practices and climatic conditions. Historically and currently, Belgian farmers apply 180 kg N ha(-1), split into three equal fractions applied at the tillering, stem elongation and flag-leaf stages. This study analysed the effectiveness of this treatment in detail, comparing it to similar practices where only the N rates applied at the flag-leaf stage were modified. Three types of farmer decision-making were analysed. The first related to the choice of N strategy for maximising yield, the second to obtaining the highest net revenue, and the third to reduce the environmental impact of potential N leaching, which carries the likelihood of taxation if inappropriate N rates are applied. The results showed reduced discontinuity in the yield distribution values thus obtained. In general, the modulation of N levels to accord with current farmer practices showed considerable asymmetry. In other words, these practices maximised the probability of achieving yields that were at least superior to the mean of the distribution values, thus reducing risk for the farmers. The practice based on applying the highest amounts (60-60-100 kg N ha(-1)) produced the best yield distribution results. When simple economical criteria were computed, the 60-60-80 kg N ha(-1) protocol was found to be optimal for 80-90% of the time. There were no statistical differences, however, between this practice and Belgian farmers’ current practice. When the taxation linked to a high level of potentially leachable N remaining in the soil after harvest was considered, this methodology clearly showed that, in 3 years out of 4,30 kg N ha(-1) could systematically be saved in comparison with the usual practice. |
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English |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4646 |
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