Abstract: Studies of GHG emissions from agriculture show that there are large differences in emissions from different products. In addition some foods require more land and water resources than others, which mean that in a future with food scarcity, moving from less to more sustainable food may become a necessity for there to be enough food for everyone. A changing of consumption and production from less to more sustainable food is thus both a mitigation strategy, as well as an adaptation strategy if climate change results in less available agricultural land and water resources, and more food loss due to more extreme weather conditions. Forecasting the economic consequences of climate change on agricultural production cannot be done without taking into account our future consumption patterns.  What will be produced will always to a large extent be a result of what is being demanded by consumers. This is a presentation of two ongoing projects related to this theme. One is a newly started project on factors which influence meat consumption. In a cross-country regression analysis we will estimate the importance of different factors such as income, price levels and degree of urbanization. We are particularly interested in the interlinkages between meat production and consumption at national levels. The other project looks at typical diets in England, Spain and Norway, and will estimate through a multi objective optimization process how the diets can be changed, through taxes and subsidies, towards a diet which is both more healthy and climate friendly.

Abstract: Southeastern Norway is characterized by variable soils, which affect its agricultural productivity. The region is dominated by cereal production, but livestock farming with forage crops has increased the latest years. Climate and socio-economic changes could entail a shift from the current production areas of cereal and forage crops. In this study we used the mechanistic models CSM-CERES and LINGRA to evaluate impacts of climate change and soil variability on wheat and timothy yields in Akerhus and Østfold Counties in Southeastern Norway. The models were run for historical (1961-90) and projected future (2046-2065) climatic conditions, and for four soil regionalizations of different resolution (1, 5, 16 and 76 representative soil profiles). The extrapolation of soil characteristics was based on similarities in texture, organic matter, layering and water holding capacity. Across the whole region, there were small differences in both spring wheat and timothy yield between the different soil regionalization resolutions. However, within certain districts within the region the differences in wheat grain yield and timothy biomass yield among the soil resolutions were up to 20 percent. These results indicate that a relatively detailed resolution of the soil proporties is preferred to better understand the impact of shifts in production between cereals and forage grasses on yield level  if spatial variability within regions is considered. The climate change scenario used indicated increased yields of both crop types in a future climate. Further steps could include a weighting of the wheat and timothy production across soils according to economic analyses.