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Piayda, A. |
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The FACCE-ERA-Net Plus project “Climate smart Agriculture on Organic Soils” (CAOS) |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-44 |
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The FACCE-ERA-Net Plus project “Climate smart Agriculture on Organic Soils” (CAOS) focuses on farmed organic soils, hotspots of vulnerability and GHG emissions in Europe. We propose to use wet organic soils as risk insurance in dry periods on farm/regional level, while water and soil management assures trafficability in wet conditions. Wet management systems abate peat degradation and therefore foster higher infiltration rates and ease subirrigation. Economically, wetness-adapted crops with stable yield quantity/quality for food, feed and bioenergy are needed. Convincing farmers and decision makers of profitable and resilient wet management systems on organic soils under climate change needs proof by on-farm experiments, historical evidence and bi-directional involvement.Overall, we aim to generate knowledge of climate smart agricultural system design on organic soils adapted to regional European conditions. CAOS will provide and distribute evidence that active management with control of groundwater levels, improved trafficability and alternative high productivity crops improves yield stability/quality and climate change resilience while mitigating GHG emissions and improving soil/water quality. We hypothesize that the strong potential for adaptation to increased climatic variability on farmed organic soil will facilitate mitigation of the largest GHG source from agriculture in Central/Northern Europe. At MACSUR conference, we present the project concept and first results. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2159 |
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Coucheney, E. |
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Sensitivity of crop water and N stress to soil input data in regional cropyield simulations and the implications for data aggregation effects: a case study with the COUP-model |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-13 |
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The effects of aggregating soil input data on modelling crop yields at regional scale have been explored within the MACSUR- Crop M – WP3 scaling exercise for an ensemble of crop models 1. The models were run for the North Rhine-Westphalia region in Germany with an average climate time-series (30 years) and soil data at resolution 1 km to 100 km. Aggregation effects showed substantial differences between the models 1. This could be linked to differences in model structure and concepts and to different procedures for the parameterization of soil properties. A further analysis of the sensitivity of the outputs to key soil properties, for each ‘model – method of parameterization’, could help in understanding differences observed within the model ensemble. In this study, we explored the relationship between winter wheat yields, water and N-stress indexes and simple key-soil properties, based on the COUP-model 2 simulations. Soils were grouped into classes according to selected parameters (i.e. soil depth, soil texture and soil organic content). Preliminary results show that some of those soil classes are clearly associated with high water and / or N-stress and lower yields or with high inter-annual variation of the yield. As such they represent key factors explaining the spatial pattern of the simulated yield at the different resolutions. In addition we identified differences in the fractional area of those soil classes between high and low spatial resolutions (‘inherent errors’ due to data aggregation). How this may influence soil data aggregation effects on simulated yields will be further analyzed. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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2128 |
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Jabloun, M.; Schelde, K.; Tao, F.; Olesen, J.E. |
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Effect of temperature and precipitation on nitrate leaching from organic cereal cropping systems in Denmark |
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2015 |
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European Journal of Agronomy |
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European Journal of Agronomy |
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62 |
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55-64 |
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nitrogen; leaching; organic farming; wheat; barley; climate-change; catch crops; nitrogen mineralization; winter-wheat; arable crop; european agriculture; farming systems; spring barley; cover crops; soil |
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The effect of variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation on soil water nitrate (NO3-N) concentration and leaching from winter and spring cereals cropping systems was investigated over three consecutive four-year crop rotation cycles from 1997 to 2008 in an organic farming crop rotation experiment in Denmark. Three experimental sites, varying in climate and soil type from coarse sand to sandy loam, were investigated. The experiment included experimental treatments with different rotations, manure rate and cover crop, and soil nitrate concentrations was monitored using suction cups. The effects of climate, soil and management were examined in a linear mixed model, and only parameters with significant effect (P < 0.05) were included in the final model. The model explained 61% and 47% of the variation in the square root transform of flow-weighted annual NO3-N concentration for winter and spring cereals, respectively, and 68% and 77% of the variation in the square root transform of annual NO3-N leaching for winter and spring cereals, respectively. Nitrate concentration and leaching were shown to be site specific and driven by climatic factors and crop management. There were significant effects on annual N concentration and NO3-N leaching of location, rotation, previous crop and crop cover during autumn and winter. The relative effects of temperature and precipitation differed between seasons and cropping systems. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the predicted N concentration and leaching increased with increases in temperature and precipitation. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4562 |
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Zhang, W.; Liu, C.; Zheng, X.; Zhou, Z.; Cui, F.; Zhu, B.; Haas, E.; Klatt, S.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Kiese, R. |
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Comparison of the DNDC, LandscapeDNDC and IAP-N-GAS models for simulating nitrous oxide and nitric oxide emissions from the winter wheat–summer maize rotation system |
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2015 |
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Agricultural Systems |
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Agricultural Systems |
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140 |
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1-10 |
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Model ensemble; Straw incorporation; Irrigation; Fertilization; Calcareous soil; North China Plain; process-oriented model; soil organic-matter; biogeochemical model; cropping system; N2O emissions; forest soils; microbial-growth; rainfall events; calcareous soil |
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The DNDC, LandscapeDNDC and IAP-N-GAS models have been designed to simulate the carbon and nitrogen processes of terrestrial ecosystems. Until now, a comparison of these models using simultaneous observations has not been reported, although such a comparison is essential for further model development and application. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of the models, delineate the strengths and limitations of each model for simulating soil nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and explore short-comings of these models that may require reconsideration. We conducted comparisons among the models using simultaneous observations of both gases and relevant variables from the winter wheat-summer maize rotation system at three field sites with calcareous soils. Simulations of N2O and NO emissions by the three models agreed well with annual observations, but not with daily observations. All models failed to correctly simulate soil moisture, which could explain some of the incorrect daily fluxes of N2O and NO, especially for intensive fluxes during the growing season. Multi-model ensembles are promising approaches to better simulate daily gas emissions. IAP-N-GAS underestimated the priming effect of straw incorporation on N2O and NO emissions, but better results were obtained with DNDC95 and LandscapeDNDC. LandscapeDNDC and IAP-N-GAS need to improve the simulation of irrigation water allocation and residue decomposition processes, respectively, and together to distinguish different irrigation methods as DNDC95 does. All three models overestimated the emissions of the nitrogenous gases for high nitrogen fertilizer (>430 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)) addition treatments, and therefore, future research should focus more on the simulation of the limitation of soil dissolvable organic carbon on denitrification in calcareous soils. |
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0308-521x |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4685 |
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Dumont, B.; Basso, B.; Leemans, V.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F. |
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A comparison of within-season yield prediction algorithms based on crop model behaviour analysis |
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2015 |
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Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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204 |
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10-21 |
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stics crop model; climate variability; lars-wg; yield prediction; log-normal distribution; convergence in law theorem; central limit theorem; weather generator; nitrogen balances; generic model; wheat; simulation; climate; stics; variability; skewness; efficiency |
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The development of methodologies for predicting crop yield, in real-time and in response to different agro-climatic conditions, could help to improve the farm management decision process by providing an analysis of expected yields in relation to the costs of investment in particular practices. Based on the use of crop models, this paper compares the ability of two methodologies to predict wheat yield (Triticum aestivum L.), one based on stochastically generated climatic data and the other on mean climate data. It was shown that the numerical experimental yield distribution could be considered as a log-normal distribution. This function is representative of the overall model behaviour. The lack of statistical differences between the numerical realisations and the logistic curve showed in turn that the Generalised Central Limit Theorem (GCLT) was applicable to our case study. In addition, the predictions obtained using both climatic inputs were found to be similar at the inter and intra-annual time-steps, with the root mean square and normalised deviation values below an acceptable level of 10% in 90% of the climatic situations. The predictive observed lead-times were also similar for both approaches. Given (i) the mathematical formulation of crop models, (ii) the applicability of the CLT and GLTC to the climatic inputs and model outputs, respectively, and (iii) the equivalence of the predictive abilities, it could be concluded that the two methodologies were equally valid in terms of yield prediction. These observations indicated that the Convergence in Law Theorem was applicable in this case study. For purely predictive purposes, the findings favoured an algorithm based on a mean climate approach, which needed far less time (by 300-fold) to run and converge on same predictive lead time than the stochastic approach. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4647 |
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