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Zhao, G.; Hoffmann, H.; Van Bussel, L.; Enders, A.; Specka, X.; Sosa, C.; Yeluripati, J.; Tao, F.; Constantin, J.; Teixeira, E.; Grosz, B.; Doro, L.; Zhao, Z.; Nendel, C.; Raynal, H.; Eckersten, H.; Haas, E.; Kuhnert, M.; Lewan, E.; Bach, M.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Roggero, P.P.; Rötter, R.; Wallach, D.; Krauss, G.; Siebert, S.; Gaiser, T.; Kiese, R.; Wang, E.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Weather data aggregation’s effects on simulation of cropping systems: a model, production system and crop comparison |
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Conference Article |
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2014 |
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Interactions of climate, soil and management practices in cropping systems can be simulated at different scales to provide information for decision making. Low resolution simulation need less effort, but important details could be lost through data aggregation effects (DAEs). This paper aims to provide a general method to assess the DAEs on weather data and the simulation of cropping systems, and further investigate how the DAEs vary with changing crop models, crops, variables and production systems. A 30-year continuous cropping system was simulated for winter wheat and silage maize and potential, water-limited and water-nitrogen-limited production situations. Climate data of 1 km resolution and aggregations to resolutions of 10 to 100 km was used as input for the simulations. The data aggregation narrowed the variation of weather data and DAEs increased with increasingly coarser spatial resolution, causing the loss of hot spots in simulated results. Spatial patterns were similar across different resolutions. Consistent with DAEs on weather data, the DAEs on simulated yield (0 to 1.2 t ha-1 for winter wheat and 0 to 1.7 t ha-1 for silage maize), evapotranspiration (3 to 45 mm yr-1 for winter wheat and 4 to 40 mm yr-1 for silage maize), and water use efficiency (0.02 to 0.25 kg m-3 for winter wheat and 0.04 to 0.4 kg m-3 for silage maize), increased with coarser spatial resolution. Thus, if spatial information is needed for local management decisions, higher resolution is needed to adequately capture the spatial heterogeneity or hot spots in the region. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5141 |
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Grosz, B.; Dechow, R.; Gebbert, S.; Hoffmann, H.; Zhao, G.; Constantin, J.; Raynal, H.; Wallach, D.; Coucheney, E.; Lewan, E.; Eckersten, H.; Specka, X.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Nendel, C.; Kuhnert, M.; Yeluripati, J.; Haas, E.; Teixeira, E.; Bindi, M.; Trombi, G.; Moriondo, M.; Doro, L.; Roggero, P.P.; Zhao, Z.; Wang, E.; Tao, F.; Roetter, R.; Kassie, B.; Cammarano, D.; Asseng, S.; Weihermueller, L.; Siebert, S.; Gaiser, T.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
The implication of input data aggregation on up-scaling soil organic carbon changes |
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Journal Article |
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2017 |
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Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
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96 |
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361-377 |
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Biogeochemical model; Data aggregation; Up-scaling error; Soil organic carbon; DIFFERENT SPATIAL SCALES; NITROUS-OXIDE EMISSIONS; MODELING SYSTEM; DATA; RESOLUTION; CROP MODELS; CLIMATE; LONG; PRODUCTIVITY; CROPLANDS; DAYCENT |
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Abstract |
In up-scaling studies, model input data aggregation is a common method to cope with deficient data availability and limit the computational effort. We analyzed model errors due to soil data aggregation for modeled SOC trends. For a region in North West Germany, gridded soil data of spatial resolutions between 1 km and 100 km has been derived by majority selection. This data was used to simulate changes in SOC for a period of 30 years by 7 biogeochemical models. Soil data aggregation strongly affected modeled SOC trends. Prediction errors of simulated SOC changes decreased with increasing spatial resolution of model output. Output data aggregation only marginally reduced differences of model outputs between models indicating that errors caused by deficient model structure are likely to persist even if requirements on the spatial resolution of model outputs are low. (C)2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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2017-09-14 |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5176 |
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Kuhnert, M.; Yeluripati, J.; Smith, P.; Hoffmann, H.; van Oijen, M.; Constantin, J.; Coucheney, E.; Dechow, R.; Eckersten, H.; Gaiser, T.; Grosz, B.; Haas, E.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Kiese, R.; Klatt, S.; Lewan, E.; Nendel, C.; Raynal, H.; Sosa, C.; Specka, X.; Teixeira, E.; Wang, E.; Weihermüller, L.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, Z.; Ogle, S.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Impact analysis of climate data aggregation at different spatial scales on simulated net primary productivity for croplands |
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Journal Article |
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2016 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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88 |
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41-52 |
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Keywords |
Net primary production; NPP; Scaling; Extreme events; Crop modelling; Climate Data; aggregation |
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Abstract |
For spatial crop and agro-systems modelling, there is often a discrepancy between the scale of measured driving data and the target resolution. Spatial data aggregation is often necessary, which can introduce additional uncertainty into the simulation results. Previous studies have shown that climate data aggregation has little effect on simulation of phenological stages, but effects on net primary production (NPP) might still be expected through changing the length of the growing season and the period of grain filling. This study investigates the impact of spatial climate data aggregation on NPP simulation results, applying eleven different models for the same study region (∼34,000 km2), situated in Western Germany. To isolate effects of climate, soil data and management were assumed to be constant over the entire study area and over the entire study period of 29 years. Two crops, winter wheat and silage maize, were tested as monocultures. Compared to the impact of climate data aggregation on yield, the effect on NPP is in a similar range, but is slightly lower, with only small impacts on averages over the entire simulation period and study region. Maximum differences between the five scales in the range of 1–100 km grid cells show changes of 0.4–7.8% and 0.0–4.8% for wheat and maize, respectively, whereas the simulated potential NPP averages of the models show a wide range (1.9–4.2 g C m−2 d−1 and 2.7–6.1 g C m−2 d−1for wheat and maize, respectively). The impact of the spatial aggregation was also tested for shorter time periods, to see if impacts over shorter periods attenuate over longer periods. The results show larger impacts for single years (up to 9.4% for wheat and up to 13.6% for maize). An analysis of extreme weather conditions shows an aggregation effect in vulnerability up to 12.8% and 15.5% between the different resolutions for wheat and maize, respectively. Simulations of NPP averages over larger areas (e.g. regional scale) and longer time periods (several years) are relatively insensitive to climate data. |
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2016-09-13 |
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Newsletter July |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4775 |
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Author |
Hoffmann, H.; Zhao, G.; van Bussel, L.G.J.; Enders, A.; Specka, X.; Sosa, C.; Yeluripati, J.; Tao, F.; Constantin, J.; Raynal, H.; Teixeira, E.; Grosz, B.; Doro, L.; Zhao, Z.; Wang, E.; Nendel, C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Haas, E.; Kiese, R.; Klatt, S.; Eckersten, H.; Vanuytrecht, E.; Kuhnert, M.; Lewan, E.; Rötter, R.; Roggero, P.P.; Wallach, D.; Cammarano, D.; Asseng, S.; Krauss, G.; Siebert, S.; Gaiser, T.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Variability of effects of spatial climate data aggregation on regional yield simulation by crop models |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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Volume |
65 |
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53-69 |
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Keywords |
spatial aggregation effects; crop simulation model; input data; scaling; variability; yield simulation; model comparison; input data aggregation; systems simulation; nitrogen dynamics; data resolution; n2o emissions; winter-wheat; scale; water; impact; apsim |
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Field-scale crop models are often applied at spatial resolutions coarser than that of the arable field. However, little is known about the response of the models to spatially aggregated climate input data and why these responses can differ across models. Depending on the model, regional yield estimates from large-scale simulations may be biased, compared to simulations with high-resolution input data. We evaluated this so-called aggregation effect for 13 crop models for the region of North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany. The models were supplied with climate data of 1 km resolution and spatial aggregates of up to 100 km resolution raster. The models were used with 2 crops (winter wheat and silage maize) and 3 production situations (potential, water-limited and nitrogen-water-limited growth) to improve the understanding of errors in model simulations related to data aggregation and possible interactions with the model structure. The most important climate variables identified in determining the model-specific input data aggregation on simulated yields were mainly related to changes in radiation (wheat) and temperature (maize). Additionally, aggregation effects were systematic, regardless of the extent of the effect. Climate input data aggregation changed the mean simulated regional yield by up to 0.2 t ha(-1), whereas simulated yields from single years and models differed considerably, depending on the data aggregation. This implies that large-scale crop yield simulations are robust against climate data aggregation. However, large-scale simulations can be systematically biased when being evaluated at higher temporal or spatial resolution depending on the model and its parameterization. |
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0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4694 |
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Author |
Makowski, D.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Bassu, S.; Durand, J.L.; Li, T.; Martre, P.; Adam, M.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Baron, C.; Basso, B.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Boogaard, H.; Boote, K.J.; Bouman, B.; Bregaglio, S.; Brisson, N.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Challinor, A.J.; Confalonieri, R.; Conijn, J.G.; Corbeels, M.; Deryng, D.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fumoto, T.; Gaydon, D.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.F.; Grassini, P.; Hatfield, J.L.; Hasegawa, T.; Heng, L.; Hoek, S.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Jongschaap, R.E.E.; Jones, J.W.; Kemanian, R.A.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kim, S.-H.; Lizaso, J.; Marcaida, M.; Müller, C.; Nakagawa, H.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.J.; Olesen, J.E.; Oriol, P.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Pravia, M.V.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Sau, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Singh, B.; Singh, U.; Soo, H.K.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tang, L.; Tao, F.; Teixeira, E.I.; Thorburn, P.; Timlin, D.; Travasso, M.; Rötter, R.P.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Wilkens, P.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.; Yin, X.; Yoshida, H.; Zhang, Z.; Zhu, Y. |
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Title |
A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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214-215 |
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483-493 |
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climate change; crop model; emulator; meta-model; statistical model; yield; climate-change; wheat yields; metaanalysis; uncertainty; simulation; impacts |
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Abstract |
Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenarios of temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data. Such datasets potentially provide new information but it is difficult to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexities. An associated issue is that it is not straightforward to compare crops and to interpolate the results to alternative climate scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulate ensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models is that they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2 concentration levels, and can thus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without rerunning the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulated by 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical models are fitted to these datasets, and are then used to analyze the variability of the yield response to [CO2] and temperature. Based on our results, we show that, for wheat, a [CO2] increase is likely to outweigh the negative effect of a temperature increase of +2 degrees C in the considered sites. Compared to wheat, required levels of [CO2] increase are much higher for maize, and intermediate for rice. For all crops, uncertainties in simulating climate change impacts increase more with temperature than with elevated [CO2]. |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4714 |
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