| Records |
| Author |
Elsgaard, L.; Børgesen, C.D.; Olesen, J.E.; Siebert, S.; Ewert, F.; Peltonen-Sainio, P.; Rötter, R.P.; Skjelvåg, A.O. |
| Title |
Shifts in comparative advantages for maize, oat and wheat cropping under climate change in Europe |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Food Additives & Contaminants: Part A |
Abbreviated Journal |
Food Addit. Contam. Part A |
| Volume |
29 |
Issue |
10 |
Pages |
1514-1526 |
| Keywords |
Agriculture/*economics/trends; Animals; Avena/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology; *Climate Change/economics; Crops, Agricultural/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology; Europe; *Food Safety; Forecasting/methods; Fungi/growth & development/metabolism; Humans; Models, Biological; Models, Economic; Mycotoxins/analysis/biosynthesis; Soil Pollutants/adverse effects/analysis; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Triticum/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology; Uncertainty; Weather; Zea mays/chemistry/economics/*growth & development/microbiology |
Abstract  |
Climate change is anticipated to affect European agriculture, including the risk of emerging or re-emerging feed and food hazards. Indirectly, climate change may influence such hazards (e.g. the occurrence of mycotoxins) due to geographic shifts in the distribution of major cereal cropping systems and the consequences this may have for crop rotations. This paper analyses the impact of climate on cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat on a 50-km square grid across Europe (45-65°N) and provides model-based estimates of the changes in cropping shares in response to changes in temperature and precipitation as projected for the time period around 2040 by two regional climate models (RCM) with a moderate and a strong climate change signal, respectively. The projected cropping shares are based on the output from the two RCMs and on algorithms derived for the relation between meteorological data and observed cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat. The observed cropping shares show a south-to-north gradient, where maize had its maximum at 45-55°N, oat had its maximum at 55-65°N, and wheat was more evenly distributed along the latitudes in Europe. Under the projected climate changes, there was a general increase in maize cropping shares, whereas for oat no areas showed distinct increases. For wheat, the projected changes indicated a tendency towards higher cropping shares in the northern parts and lower cropping shares in the southern parts of the study area. The present modelling approach represents a simplification of factors determining the distribution of cereal crops, and also some uncertainties in the data basis were apparent. A promising way of future model improvement could be through a systematic analysis and inclusion of other variables, such as key soil properties and socio-economic conditions, influencing the comparative advantages of specific crops. |
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English |
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1944-0049 1944-0057 |
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CropM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4585 |
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Olesen, J.E.; Porter, J.R.; Christensen, J.H. |
| Title |
Centre for Regional change in the Earth System |
Type |
Conference Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
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Centre for Regionalchange in the Earth System (CRES, cres-centre.net) is funded by the DanishStrategic Research Council for the period 2009-2014 and is coordinated by theDanish Meteorological Institute. CRES has established a coordinated researcheffort aiming to improve societal preparedness for climate change, inparticular for Denmark. The overall objective of CRES is to extend knowledge ofand reduce the uncertainties surrounding regional climate change and itsimpacts and thereby support future climate change adaptation and mitigationpolicies. Some of the objectives that also have large synergies with theeffects in the CropM theme of MACSUR are a) to reduce uncertainty surroundingregional climate change and its impacts for the period 2020-2050 by improvingmodel formulation and process understanding; b) identify key changes andtipping points in the regional hydrological system, agriculture, freshwater andestuarine ecosystems caused by changes in seasonality, dynamics and extremeevents of precipitation, droughts, heat waves and sea level rise; c) quantifyconfidence and uncertainties in predictions of future regional climate and itsimpacts, by improving the statistical methodology and substance and byintegrating interdisciplinary risk analyses; d) interpret these results inrelation to risk management approaches for climate change adaptation andmitigation. Studies in CRES of particular interest to MACSUR include a)Estimation on generic crop model uncertainties in projection of climate changeimpacts on wheat year, b) Assessment of uncertainties in projected effects onwater balance, crop productivity and nitrate leaching of changes in land use,climate and assessment models. |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference |
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3(S) Sassari, Italy |
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FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 2014-04-01 to 2014-04-04, Sassari, Italy |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5059 |
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Patil, R.H.; Laegdsmand, M.; Olesen, J.E.; Porter, J.R. |
| Title |
Soil temperature manipulation to study global warming effects in arable land: performance of buried heating-cable method |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Environment and Ecology Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environment and Ecology Research |
| Volume |
1 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
196-204 |
| Keywords |
Climate Change; Climate Manipulation; Soil Warming; Heating Cables; Soil Temperature; Agro-Ecosystems |
| Abstract |
Buried heating-cable method for manipulating soil temperature was designed and tested its performance in large concrete lysimeters grown with the wheat crop in Denmark. Soil temperature in heated plots was elevated by 5℃ compared with that in control by burying heating-cable at 0.1 m depth in a plough layer. Temperature sensors were placed at 0.05, 0.1 and 0.25 m depths in soil, and 0.1 m above the soil surface in all plots, which were connected to an automated data logger. Soil-warming setup was able to maintain a mean seasonal temperature difference of 5.0 ± 0.005℃ between heated and control plots at 0.1 m depth while the mean seasonal rise in soil temperature in the top 0.25 m depth (plough layer) was 3℃. Soil temperature in control plots froze (≤ 0℃) for 15 and 13 days respectively at 0.05 and 0.1 m depths while it did not in heated plots during the coldest period (Nov-Apr). This study clearly showed the efficacy of buried heating-cable technique in simulating soil temperature, and thus offers a simple, effective and alternative technique to study soil biogeochemical processes under warmer climates. This technique, however, decouples below-ground soil responses from that of above-ground vegetation response as this method heats only the soil. Therefore, using infrared heaters seems to represent natural climate warming (both air and soil) much more closely and may be used for future climate manipulation field studies. |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4632 |
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Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Wimmerová, M.; Pohanková, E.; Rötter, R.; Olesen, J.E.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Semenov, M. |
| Title |
Paper on model responses to selected adverse weather conditions |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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10 |
Issue |
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Pages |
C1.2-D |
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Based on the Trnka et al. (2015) study that indicated that heat and drought will be the most important stress factors for most of the European what area the further effort focused on these two extremes. The crop model HERMES has been tested for its ability to replicate correctly drought stress, heat stress and combination of both stresses. While data on the drought stress were available for both field and growth chambers, heat stress and its combination with heat stress was available only for the growth chambers. The modified version of the HERMES crop model was developed by Dr. Kersebaum and is being currently prepared for the journal paper publication. |
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CropM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4954 |
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Fleisher, D.H.; Condori, B.; Quiroz, R.; Alva, A.; Asseng, S.; Barreda, C.; Bindi, M.; Boote, K.J.; Ferrise, R.; Franke, A.C.; Govindakrishnan, P.M.; Harahagazwe, D.; Hoogenboom, G.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Merante, P.; Nendel, C.; Olesen, J.E.; Parker, P.S.; Raes, D.; Raymundo, R.; Ruane, A.C.; Stockle, C.; Supit, I.; Vanuytrecht, E.; Wolf, J.; Woli, P. |
| Title |
A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
| Volume |
23 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
1258-1281 |
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A potato crop multimodel assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low-input (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi)- and high-input (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) management sites. Two calibration stages were explored, partial (P1), where experimental dry matter data were not provided, and full (P2). The median model ensemble response outperformed any single model in terms of replicating observed yield across all locations. Uncertainty in simulated yield decreased from 38% to 20% between P1 and P2. Model uncertainty increased with interannual variability, and predictions for all agronomic variables were significantly different from one model to another (P < 0.001). Uncertainty averaged 15% higher for low- vs. high-input sites, with larger differences observed for evapotranspiration (ET), nitrogen uptake, and water use efficiency as compared to dry matter. A minimum of five partial, or three full, calibrated models was required for an ensemble approach to keep variability below that of common field variation. Model variation was not influenced by change in carbon dioxide (C), but increased as much as 41% and 23% for yield and ET, respectively, as temperature (T) or rainfall (W) moved away from historical levels. Increases in T accounted for the highest amount of uncertainty, suggesting that methods and parameters for T sensitivity represent a considerable unknown among models. Using median model ensemble values, yield increased on average 6% per 100-ppm C, declined 4.6% per °C, and declined 2% for every 10% decrease in rainfall (for nonirrigated sites). Differences in predictions due to model representation of light utilization were significant (P < 0.01). These are the first reported results quantifying uncertainty for tuber/root crops and suggest modeling assessments of climate change impact on potato may be improved using an ensemble approach. |
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1354-1013 |
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article |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4968 |
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