Abstract: Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59-98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9\% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is -6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller.

Abstract: Viticulture in Italy is one of the economically most important agricultural sectors. Recent research allows eco-physiological and biophysical models to develop tools able to provide support to the crop management, in terms of optimizing production performance and limiting environmental impacts. The ability to check on a daily basis the activities of vegetative and productive phases of vines is certainly a fundamental tool for the vineyard organization and management, and for linking the trends of growth and productivity with the quality of the final product: the wine. Since some years, some researches are taking place in the vineyards of northwestern Italy, with the aim of modeling the eco-physiological behavior of the vines, using and valorizing all available historical field data related to the vegetative and productive behavior of the vines, as well as laboratory qualitative data. At the same time, our team is evaluating two different modeling approaches: one biophysical, using the land surface scheme UTOPIA (University of TOrino land Process Interaction in Atmosphere), and another one eco-physiological. The case-study vineyards, referred to the northwestern Italian territory, is part of a wider working program involving several integrated teams from Italy, Spain and Germany. The objectives are: to improve the use of the models used by different groups; to compare the results obtained by different modeling tools; to create a common database of field measurements; to study the relationships between vegetative-productive behaviors and quality of productions.

Abstract: We will use Finland as an example of a small, developed country with difficult climatic conditions to show how changes in global food consumption patterns and global population growth will influence local production. In order to do so we use two different models. First, an agricultural sector model for Finland, and second, a regionally adapted version of a global, spatially explicit agroeconomic land use model. We use both models to investigate how Finnish cereals and oilseed production develops under different socioeconomic conditions, as defined in the Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We find that without a major improvement of oilseed yields, oilseed production will be disrupted by 2050 and even with a major increase in oilseeds yields only in the SSP2 scenario production of oilseeds can be sustained. Cereal production on the other hand does not change in the simulations with the global model, but does almost decrease by half in the simulations with the national model. This shows that even with an enormous global population growth and reduced international trade, Finland will not become a major agricultural producer.