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Author |
Stratonovitch, P.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Heat tolerance around flowering in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
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Volume |
66 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
3599-3609 |
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Keywords |
Adaptation, Physiological; *Climate Change; Computer Simulation; Europe; Flowers/*physiology; *Hot Temperature; *Quantitative Trait, Heritable; Time Factors; Triticum/*growth & development/*physiology; Downscaling; LARS-WG weather generator; Sirius wheat model.; heat stress; ideotype design; impact assessment |
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Abstract  |
To deliver food security for the 9 billon population in 2050, a 70% increase in world food supply will be required. Projected climatic and environmental changes emphasize the need for breeding strategies that delivers both a substantial increase in yield potential and resilience to extreme weather events such as heat waves, late frost, and drought. Heat stress around sensitive stages of wheat development has been identified as a possible threat to wheat production in Europe. However, no estimates have been made to assess yield losses due to increased frequency and magnitude of heat stress under climate change. Using existing experimental data, the Sirius wheat model was refined by incorporating the effects of extreme temperature during flowering and grain filling on accelerated leaf senescence, grain number, and grain weight. This allowed us, for the first time, to quantify yield losses resulting from heat stress under climate change. The model was used to optimize wheat ideotypes for CMIP5-based climate scenarios for 2050 at six sites in Europe with diverse climates. The yield potential for heat-tolerant ideotypes can be substantially increased in the future (e.g. by 80% at Seville, 100% at Debrecen) compared with the current cultivars by selecting an optimal combination of wheat traits, e.g. optimal phenology and extended duration of grain filling. However, at two sites, Seville and Debrecen, the grain yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes were substantially lower (by 54% and 16%) and more variable compared with heat-tolerant ideotypes, because the extended grain filling required for the increased yield potential was in conflict with episodes of high temperature during flowering and grain filling. Despite much earlier flowering at these sites, the risk of heat stress affecting yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes remained high. Therefore, heat tolerance in wheat is likely to become a key trait for increased yield potential and yield stability in southern Europe in the future. |
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0022-0957 1460-2431 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4578 |
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Author |
Wolf, J.; Ouattara, K.; Supit, I. |
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Title |
Sowing rules for estimating rainfed yield potential of sorghum and maize in Burkina Faso |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Volume |
214-215 |
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Pages |
208-218 |
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Keywords |
crop modelling; maize; sorghum; sowing; WOFOST; yield potential; semiarid west-africa; pearl-millet cultivation; soil organic-matter; climate-change; planting dates; crop model; variability; water; adaptation; tillage |
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Abstract |
To reduce the dependence on local expert knowledge, which is important for large-scale crop modelling studies, we analyzed sowing dates and rules for maize (Zea mays L.) and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L)) at three locations in Burkina Faso with strongly decreasing rainfall amounts from south to north. We tested in total 22 methods to derive optimal sowing dates that result in highest water-limited yields and lowest yield variation in a reproducible and objective way. The WOFOST crop growth simulation model was used. We found that sowing dates that are based on local expert knowledge, may work quite well for Burkina Faso and for West Africa in general. However, when no a priori information is available, maize should be sown between Julian days 160 and 200, with application of the following criteria: (a) cumulative rainfall in the sowing window is >= 3 cm or available soil moisture content is >2 cm in the moderately dry central part of Burkina Faso, (b) cumulative rainfall in this period is >= 2 cm or available soil moisture content is >1 cm in the more humid regions in the southern part of Burkina Faso. Sorghum should also be sown between Julian days 160 and 200 with application of the following criteria: (a) in the dry northern part of Burkina Faso the long duration sorghum variety should be sown when cumulative rainfall is >2 cm in the sowing window, and the short duration sorghum variety should be sown later when cumulative rainfall is >= 3 cm, (b) in central Burkina Faso sowing should start when cumulative rainfall in this period is >= 2 cm or when available soil moisture content is >1 cm. Sowing date rules are shown to be generally crop and location specific and are not generic for West Africa. However, the required precision of the sowing rules appears to rapidly decrease with increasing duration and intensity of the rainy season. Sowing delay as a result of, for example, labour constraints, has a disastrous effect on rainfed maize and sorghum yields, particularly in the northern part of West Africa with low rainfall. Optimization of sowing dates can also be done by simulating crop yields in a time window of two months around a predefined sowing date. Using these optimized dates appears to result in a good estimate of the maximal mean rainfed yield level. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2015-10-12 |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4702 |
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Author |
Cortignani, R.; Dono, G. |
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Title |
Simulation of the impact of greening measures in an agricultural area of the southern Italy |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Land Use Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Land Use Policy |
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48 |
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525-533 |
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Keywords |
agricultural policy; supply analysis; mathematical programming; maximum-entropy; level; models |
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Abstract |
Together, sustainable management of natural resources and climate action form one of the three objectives of the 2014-2020 Common Agricultural Policy. This objective is being addressed by replacing the existing direct payments under Pillar 1 with a basic payment, combined with an additional payment conditional on farmers undertaking agricultural practices beneficial for the climate and the environment, a policy referred to as greening. In this study, the impact of greening was assessed using a hybrid model calibrated using positive mathematical programming. The model describes the macro-types of farm production in a Mediterranean agricultural area. The results show that greening was not beneficial throughout the study area and only some farm types have been particularly affected. However, greening appears to have a positive impact on curtailing the use of chemicals, particularly nitrogen, and on crop diversity. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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0264-8377 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4746 |
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Author |
Dáder, B.; Plaza, M.; Fereres, A.; Moreno, A. |
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Title |
Flight behaviour of vegetable pests and their natural enemies under different ultraviolet-blocking enclosures |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
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Annals of Applied Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ann. Appl. Biol. |
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167 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
116-126 |
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Keywords |
agricultural pests; insect orientation; natural enemies; photoselective enclosures; uv light; aphidius-colemani; plastic films; myzus-persicae; insect pests; frankliniella-occidentalis; trialeurodes-vaporariorum; spectral efficiency; encarsia-formosa; protect crops; greenhouse |
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Abstract |
Ultraviolet (UV) radiation, particularly in the UV-A + B range (280-400 nm) is a fraction of the solar spectrum that regulates almost every aspect of insect behaviour, including orientation towards hosts, alighting, arrestment and feeding behaviour. To study the role of UV radiation on the flight activity of five insect species of agricultural importance (pests Myzus persicae, Bemisia tabaci and Tuta absoluta, and natural enemies Aphidius colemani and Sphaerophoria rueppellii), one-chamber tunnels were covered with six cladding materials with different light transmittance properties ranging from 2% to 83% UV and 54% to 85% photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Inside each tunnel, insects were released from tubes placed in a platform suspended from the ceiling. Specific targets varying with insect species were placed at different distances from the platform. Evaluation parameters were designed for each insect and tested separately. The ability of insects to leave the platform was assessed, as well as the number of captures, eggs or mummies in each target, either sticky traps or plants. Our results suggest differences in flight activity among insect species and UV-blocking nets. The UV-opaque film drastically prevented aphids, and whiteflies from flying outside the tubes whereas T. absoluta, syrphids and parasitoids were not affected. Aphid flight behaviour was affected by the UV-opaque film compared to the other nets, especially in the furthest target of the tunnel. Fewer aphids reached distant traps under UV-absorbing nets, and significantly more aphids could fly to the end of tunnels covered with non-UV-blocking materials. Orientation of B. tabaci and T. absoluta was also negatively affected by the UV-opaque film although in a different trend. Unlike aphids, differences in B. tabaci captures were mainly found in the closest targets. UV transmittance did not have any effects on parasitoids, and S. rueppellii, implying cues other than visual for these insects under our experimental conditions. Further effects of photoselective enclosures on greenhouse pests and their natural enemies are discussed. |
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0003-4746 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4555 |
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Author |
Ferrise, R.; Toscano, P.; Pasqui, M.; Moriondo, M.; Primicerio, J.; Semenov, M.A.; Bindi, M. |
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Title |
Monthly-to-seasonal predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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Volume |
65 |
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7-21 |
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Keywords |
yield predictions; seasonal forecasts; analogue forecasts; stochastic weather generator; empirical forecasting models; durum wheat; crop modelling; mediterranean basin; general-circulation model; scale climate indexes; crop yield; grain-yield; forecasts; simulation; region; precipitation; australia; europe |
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Uncertainty in weather conditions for the forthcoming growing season influences farmers’ decisions, based on their experience of the past climate, regarding the reduction of agricultural risk. Early within-season predictions of grain yield can represent a great opportunity for farmers to improve their management decisions and potentially increase yield and reduce potential risk. This study assessed 3 methods of within-season predictions of durum wheat yield at 10 sites across the Mediterranean Basin. To assess the value of within-season predictions, the model SiriusQuality2 was used to calculate wheat yields over a 9 yr period. Initially, the model was run with observed daily weather to obtain the reference yields. Then, yield predictions were calculated at a monthly time step, starting from 6 mo before harvest, by feeding the model with observed weather from the beginning of the growing season until a specific date and then with synthetic weather constructed using the 3 methods, historical, analogue or empirical, until the end of the growing season. The results showed that it is possible to predict durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin with an accuracy of normalized root means squared error of <20%, from 5 to 6 mo earlier for the historical and empirical methods and 3 mo earlier for the analogue method. Overall, the historical method performed better than the others. Nonetheless, the analogue and empirical methods provided better estimations for low-yielding and high-yielding years, thus indicating great potential to provide more accurate predictions for years that deviate from average conditions. |
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0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4696 |
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