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Ruiz-Ramos, M. (2015). Simulating wheat adaptation to climate change in Europe using an ensemble approach with impact response surfaces (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Adaptation can reduce climate change risks to crop production and is best analyzed at local scales considering regional specificities. Uncertainty inherent in modelling adaptation options is due to climate projections, downscaling and imperfections of crop models. The challenge of making effective adaptation decisions requires powerful approaches for exploiting the potential of genotype by environment by management interactions, and for generating projections informed with uncertainty.Here we present a methodology that constructs impact response surfaces (IRSs) from an ensemble of crop models and applies these to explore the adaptation potential of rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain) in a water-limited environment. The simulation experiment includes: 1) a systematic sensitivity analysis to changes to baseline temperature and precipitation (1981-2010) through a delta change approach that accounts for seasonal differences, 2) three levels of CO2 representing present-day and future conditions until 2050 (A1B scenario), and 3) soil profiles representative for the variable conditions around Lleida. The adaptation simulations represent adjusted management practices about sowing, supplementary irrigation, and the thermal and vernalisation requirements of cultivars used.A pre-selection of the adaptation options was done iteratively, in ranges supported by literature review of crop adaptation in the Mediterranean (e.g. shifts from current sowing date between -30 and +45 days). This procedure allowed to identify a limited number of effective and feasible adaptations to be evaluated combining IRSs and probabilistic projections of climate change. No Label
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Lorite, I. J., Gabaldon-Leal, C., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Belaj, A., de la Rosa, R., Leon, L., et al. (2018). Evaluation of olive response and adaptation strategies to climate change under semi-arid conditions. Agric. Water Manage., 204, 247–261.
Abstract: AdaptaOlive is a simplified physically-based model that has been developed to assess the behavior of olive under future climate conditions in Andalusia, southern Spain. The integration of different approaches based on experimental data from previous studies, combined with weather data from 11 climate models, is aimed at overcoming the high degree of uncertainty in the simulation of the response of agricultural systems under predicted climate conditions. The AdaptaOlive model was applied in a representative olive orchard in the Baeza area, one of the main producer zone in Spain, with the cultivar ‘Picual’. Simulations for the end of the 21st century showed olive oil yield increases of 7.1 and 28.9% under rainfed and full irrigated conditions, respectively, while irrigation requirements decreased between 0.5 and 6.2% for full irrigation and regulated deficit irrigation, respectively. These effects were caused by the positive impact of the increase in atmospheric CO2 that counterbalanced the negative impacts of the reduction in rainfall. The high degree of uncertainty associated with climate projections translated into a high range of yield and irrigation requirement projections, confirming the need for an ensemble of climate models in climate change impact assessment. The AdaptaOlive model also was applied for evaluating adaptation strategies related to cultivars, irrigation strategies and locations. The best performance was registered for cultivars with early flowering dates and regulated deficit irrigation. Thus, in the Baeza area full irrigation requirements were reduced by 12% and the yield in rainfed conditions increased by 7% compared with late flowering cultivars. Similarly, regulated deficit irrigation requirements and yield were reduced by 46% and 18%, respectively, compared with full irrigation. The results confirm the promise offered by these strategies as adaptation measures for managing an olive crop under semi-arid conditions in a changing climate.
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Ruiz-Ramos, M., Ferrise, R., Rodríguez, A., Lorite, I. J., Tao, F., Pirttioja, N., et al. (2016). Wheat yield potential in Europe under climate change explored by adaptation response surfaces.. Montpellier (France).
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Ruiz-Ramos, M., Ferrise, R., Rodríguez, A., Lorite, I. J., Pirttioja, N., Fronzek, S., et al. (2016). Adaptation response surfaces from an ensemble of wheat projections under climate change in Europe.. Vienna (Austria).
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Tao, F., Rötter, R. P., Palosuo, T., Hernández, C. G., Mínguez, M. I., Semenov, M., et al. (2016). Using crop model ensembles to design future climate-resilient barley cultivars.. Berlin (Germany).
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