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Author Wallach, D.; Thorburn, P.; Asseng, S.; Challinor, A.J.; Ewert, F.; Jones, J.W.; Rötter, R.; Ruane, A. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Estimating model prediction error: Should you treat predictions as fixed or random Type Journal Article
  Year 2016 Publication Environmental Modelling & Software Abbreviated Journal Env. Model. Softw.  
  Volume 84 Issue Pages 529-539  
  Keywords Crop model; Uncertainty; Prediction error; Parameter uncertainty; Input uncertainty; Model structure uncertainty  
  Abstract (down) Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEPfixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEPuncertain(X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEPuncertain(X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEPuncertain(X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.  
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  Corporate Author Thesis  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1364-8152 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4773  
Permanent link to this record
 
 
Author Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R.P.; Lobell, D.B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B.A.; Ottman, M.J.; Wall, G.W.; White, J.W.; Reynolds, M.P.; Alderman, P.D.; Prasad, P.V.V.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; De Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L.A.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C.D.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Koehler, A.-K.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Ruane, A.C.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P.J.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wallach, D.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Nature Climate Change Abbreviated Journal Nat. Clim. Change  
  Volume 5 Issue 2 Pages 143-147  
  Keywords climate-change; spring wheat; dryland wheat; yield; growth; drought; heat; CO2; agriculture; adaptation  
  Abstract (down) Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1758-678x ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4550  
Permanent link to this record
 
 
Author Rivington, M.; Wallach, D. url  openurl
  Title Communication strategy, including design of tools for more effective communication of uncertainty Type Report
  Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 6 Issue Pages D-C4.1.4  
  Keywords  
  Abstract (down) Communication is the key link between the generation of information by MACSUR about the uncertainty of climate change impacts on future food security and how information is used by decision makers. It is therefore important to make available the common tools for reporting uncertainty, with a discussion of the advantages or difficulties of each. That is the purpose of this report. No Label  
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  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
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  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2099  
Permanent link to this record
 
 
Author Wallach, D.; Rivington, M. url  openurl
  Title Identification and quantification of differences between models Type Report
  Year 2015 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 6 Issue Pages D-C4.2.2  
  Keywords  
  Abstract (down) A major goal of crop model inter-comparison is model improvement, and an important intermediate step toward that goal is understanding in some detail how models differ, and the consequences of those differences. This report is intended as a first attempt at describing possible techniques for relating differences between model outputs to specific aspects of the models. No Label  
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  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2101  
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Author Cammarano, D.; Rötter, P.; Ewert, F.; Palosuo, T.; Bindi, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Trnka, M.; van Ittersum, M.K.; Janssen, S.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Angulo, C.; Gaiser, T.; Nendel, C.; Martre, P.; de Wit, A. url  openurl
  Title Challenges for Agro-Ecosystem Modelling in Climate Change Risk Assessment for major European Crops and Farming systems Type Conference Article
  Year 2013 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages 555-564  
  Keywords  
  Abstract (down)  
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  Language Summary Language Original Title  
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  Area Expedition Conference Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, Germany, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2765  
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