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Dono, G. (2015). Climate change impact on production and income of Mediterranean farming systems: a case study (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Adaptation to climate change calls for local responses. The impact of a 2020-30 climate scenario was assessed on a 54,000 ha Mediterranean district characterized by a variety of farming systems (FS), ranging from low-input rainfed (42% of the district area and 16% of the district net income) to high-input irrigated. Climate was generated with a Regional Atmospheric Modelling System nested into a full coupled atmosphere-ocean global simulation model, under the A1B emission scenario. Crop responses to climate were assessed using EPIC after calibration. The Temperature Humidity Index was used to assess the impact on dairy cow milk yield. Farmer choices were simulated on 13 representative FS by an hybrid model of supply, territory and farm. The adaptive choices were simulated through Discrete Stochastic Programming, fed by probability distribution functions output of crop and animal models. The expected decrease in spring rainfall (-33%) will affect hay-crop production and the net income (NI) of rainfed livestock farms (-5 to -12%). The increased summer temperature will affect dairy cows NI up to -5.9%. Rice production is expected to increase up to +10%. Overall, the NI of irrigated and rainfed farms will be -2.1% and -5.4% of the current NI respectively, with livestock FS being the most affected and rice and horticultural FS the most resilient. Results will provide an ideal mediating object for engaging policy makers and stakeholders in designing visionary adaptive strategies. No Label
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Kjeldsen, C., Sørensen, A. - M. L., Dalgaard, T., & Graversgard, M. (2015). Report on cross-cutting approaches for the assessment of climate change adaption on selected EU sites or hotspots and potentials for adaption and mitigation in the dairy sector (Vol. 6).
Abstract: Adaption to climate change in the context of agriculture involves collaborative planning and development of practices which is deemed more sustainable than preceeding practices. It is however not given that sustainable development will be the outcome of such efforts. In some cases, even motivated participants experience that despite good intentions, high levels of knowledge, feasible models, appropriate technologies and many other factors present, they still might not succeed bringing about the desired change. The reasons for this can not easily be reduced to just one factor, but is very likely to be the outcome of highly complex interactions between social, technological, institutional, or even personal factors. The report documents attempts to understand the complexities of climate change adaption in a Danish water catchment, Lundgaards Bæk, which is dominated by dairy farming. As part of the EU projects AQUARIUS and MACSUR, a local action group was formed which was composed of local farmers, local agricultural advisors, advisors from the national agricultural advisory service, environmental planners from the local municipality, and environmental planners from the national environmental agency in Denmark. The action group was supposed to develop specific measures, which were supposed to lead to an overall reduction in nitrogen loading of the neighboring fjord, Mariager Fjord. The report addresses three related research themes: (1) how do the stakeholders in question interact during the process of climate change adaption, (2) when do the stakeholders encounter opportunities and barriers during the process, and finally (3) does the adaption process in question lead to the desired outcomes? The empirical background of the report is a detailed process study of dynamics within a group of stakeholders, including farmers and extension officers, who were supposed to develop sustainable management practices in order to reduce nitrogen leaching to the Mariager Fjord. The study is based on the assumption that in order for research and policy to contribute to sustainable practices, deeper understanding of complex dynamics within stakeholder partnerships is needed. Based on a theoretical framework derived from social learning, adaptive co-management and Andrew Pickering’s notion of ‘the mangle’, different in-depth explanations to why sustainable development did not occur, are offered. One explanation concerns social-psychological dynamics of knowledge. Another explanation concerns the mechanisms by which social and material forces affect outcomes of the adaption process. The report concludes by exploring the study’s relevance in relation to policy, research and practice, followed by suggestions for further in-depth case studies and experimentation in practice. No Label
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Zimmermann, A. (2015). Crop yield trends and variability in the EU (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Agreeing that increased future global food demand will have to be met by production intensification rather than land use expansion (e.g. Hertel, 2011), scientists have moved to empirically analyse the causes for differences between potentially attainable yields and actually realized yields – the yield gap (e.g. van Ittersum et al., 2013, Neumann et al., 2010). In the long run, we aim at disentangling the effects of biophysical, economic and political impacts and farmers’ response to them on crop yields by analysing yield gaps at regional scale in the European Union. Apart from generally improving our understanding of yield gaps and their drivers in the EU, our analysis will contribute to the integration of economic and biophysical models at a later stage of our research. As a first step towards an advanced yield gap analysis, the current paper will give an overview of yield developments in the EU27. The overview will be based on regional yield trend and yield variability estimates derived from socioeconomic panel data from the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN). The analysis will continue and extend the work of Ewert et al. (2005) and Reidsma et al. (2009) in terms of drawing on single farm instead of country level/farm type data, including the new EU member states and most recent years (until 2011). The EU-wide analysis of yield trends and variability will serve as a basis for the later analysis of yield gaps. No Label
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Biewald, A. (2016). Representative Agricultural Pathways for Europe (Vol. 9 C6 -).
Abstract: Agricultural aspects have been covered in the scenario process on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), but only to a limited extent. In order to analyze the future dynamics of agricultural development they need to be complemented and specified by Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), which cover different aspects of agricultural development as for example European agricultural and domestic policy, environmental policies, different livestock management systems, cropping systems or irrigation efficiencies.In this paper we will develop a general framework for RAPs where we define for each SSP the corresponding specific agricultural development. Some aspects of the above mentioned specifics can be derived from the definitions in the SSPs, as for example irrigation efficiencies which are linked to technological development. Agricultural policies on the other hand are not included in the SSP definitions. Here we will define agricultural and environmental policies, including the available funding in each area of the common agricultural policy (CAP) (pillars 1 and 2). As RAPs can only to a small degree be developed as European guidelines and implemented unilaterally, it is important to translate the overall storylines into specific scenario parameterization at national levels. Concerned by this are 1. national policies, as well as the agri-environmental schemes of the CAP in Pillar II, 2. livestock efficiencies and the development of extensive and intensive farm management, and 3. crop management systems.Additionally we will define which respresentative concentration pathways (RCPs) will match best the future agricultural and agro-economic trajectories. The following 5 preliminary RAPs for Europe will be further developed in our analysis:EU-RAP1 (Sustainable Europe) : strong CAP, strong shift on environmental regulation, no producer support, green CAP with strong mititgation componentEU-RAP2 (Middle of the road): BAU or things will stay as they are.EU-RAP3 (Fragmented Europe): Europe breaks up, rich countries support farmers with national subsidies, poor countries do not. There is no CAP anymoreEU-RAP4 (Two Europes): Europe is divided in a poor and a rich part. In the rich part a green and environmental friendly CAP will be implemented, in the poor part of Europe, the CAP will cease to existEU-RAP5(Fossil fueled Europe): free market world, strong institutions, weak on enviromental regulations, low domestic polices? Local green CAP without mitigation
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Biewald, A., Sinabell, F., Lotze-Campen, H., Zimmermann, A., & Lehtonen, H. (2017). Global Representative Agricultural Pathways for Europe (Vol. 10).
Abstract: Agricultural elements have been covered in the scenario process on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) incompletely and pathways have not been specified for the future development of the European Union. We will therefore devise a general framework on European Representative Agricultural Pathways (EU-RAPs), where we cover different aspects of agricultural development, as for example European and domestic agricultural and environmental policies, or different livestock and crop management systems, and describe future developments of the confederation of the countries of the European Union. For the agricultural elements we distinguish between elements that can be derived from the definitions in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, as for example irrigation efficiencies which are linked to technological development, and elements that have to be newly devised such as the development of the Common Agricultural Policy. For the future of the European Union we develop five different worlds which correspond to the SSPs. Finally both frameworks are combined.
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