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| Author |
Roggero, P.P.; Matthews, R. |
| Title |
Strategies for engagement on adaptation and mitigation with national and EU policy makers and with the agro--food chain sector (Update) |
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Report |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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| Volume |
6 |
Issue |
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Pages |
D-C6.3 |
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Abstract  |
This report is grounded on the hypotheses, methodologies and approaches for stakeholder mapping designed during the early stages of MACSUR and described in the previous report1. It describes the kind of activities conducted by the WPC6-3-4 MACSUR team and the emerging design of activities for the second phase of MACSUR (2015-2017). The designed process of strategic stakeholder mapping was implemented by some of the teams involved in the task and through hub initiatives. Key actions were the (i) development of suitable intermediary objects to engage with stakeholders, through the regional pilot case studies, (ii) the design and implementation of key events (we report here the case of the Agroscenari event at the case study scale, the national event between the MACSUR Italian partnership with Italian policy makers held in Rome in July 2014, the international stakeholder events at the MACSUR mid term meeting in Sassari (April 2014), and the one held in Bruxelles on 6 May 2015) and (iii) the process of stakeholder and stakeholding mapping at the case study scale. Results indicate that when dealing with high level stakeholders (e.g. institutional or large agro-food enterprises), occasional stakeholder events will only serve as opportunity for showcasing and possibly for a data collection useful for researchers, with almost no impact on the ongoing social learning process sought by the designed activities. At the case study scale, instead, the long term and ongoing activities can generate new spaces for mutual learning and knowledge hybridization, through a variety of mediating objects emerging from the continuous interactions. The lesson learned is that the engagement of high level stakeholders can be effective insofar they are somehow involved in the interactions with stakeholders at the case study scale, as this can provide a key experience leading to a change in understanding about the nature of the issues that can ultimately result into a change in practice. These results will be the basis for the design of new strategies for engaging EU policy makers and large agro-food energy representatives in the second phase of MACSUR. No Label |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2107 |
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| Author |
Iglesias, A. |
| Title |
Exploring the impacts of CAP relative to climate with respect to adaptation |
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Report |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
Issue |
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Pages |
SP6-9 |
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This presentation is intended as a teaser, to spark discussions. Argument: Adaptation policy is not enough to compensate climate risks or to take advantage of opportunities No Label |
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Brussels |
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Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades: Why worry when you have CAP? A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2088 |
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Kros, J.; Bakker, M.M.; Reidsma, P.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Jamal Alam, S.; de Vries, W. |
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Impacts of agricultural changes in response to climate and socioeconomic change on nitrogen deposition in nature reserves |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
Publication |
Landscape Ecology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Landscape Ecol. |
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30 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
871-885 |
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Agricultural adaptation; Climate change; Land use change; Environmental; impact; Farming system; Nitrogen losses; netherlands; diversity; scenario |
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This paper describes the environmental consequences of agricultural adaptation on eutrophication of the nearby ecological network for a study area in the Netherlands. More specifically, we explored (i) likely responses of farmers to changes in climate, technology, policy, and markets; (ii) subsequent changes in nitrogen (N) emissions in responses to farmer adaptations; and (iii) to what extent the emitted N was deposited in nearby nature reserves, in view of the potential impacts on plant species diversity and desired nature targets. For this purpose, a spatially-explicit study at landscape level was performed by integrating the environmental model INITIATOR, the farm model FSSIM, and the land-use model RULEX. We evaluated two alternative scenarios of change in climate, technology, policy, and markets for 2050: one in line with a ‘global economy’ (GE) storyline and the other in line with a ‘regional communities’ (RC) storyline. Results show that the GE storyline resulted in a relatively strong increase in agricultural production compared to the RC storyline. Despite the projected conversions of agricultural land to nature (as part of the implementation of the National Ecological Network), we project an increase in N losses and N deposition due to N emissions in the study area of about 20 %. Even in the RC storyline, with a relatively modest increase in agricultural production and a larger expansion of the nature reserve, the N losses and deposition remain at the current level, whereas a reduction is required. We conclude that more ambitious green policies are needed in view of nature protection. |
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0921-2973 1572-9761 |
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CropM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4565 |
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Mansouri, M.; Destain, M.-F. |
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Predicting biomass and grain protein content using Bayesian methods |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment |
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Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess. |
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29 |
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4 |
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1167-1177 |
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crop model; particle filter; prediction; ensemble kalman filter; parameter-estimation; particle filters; decision-support; state estimation; model; nitrogen; navigation; tracking; systems |
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This paper deals with the problem of predicting biomass and grain protein content using improved particle filtering (IPF) based on minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The performances of IPF are compared with those of the conventional particle filtering (PF) in two comparative studies. In the first one, we apply IPF and PF at a simple dynamic crop model with the aim to predict a single state variable, namely the winter wheat biomass, and to estimate several model parameters. In the second study, the proposed IPF and the PF are applied to a complex crop model (AZODYN) to predict a winter-wheat quality criterion, namely the grain protein content. The results of both comparative studies reveal that the IPF method provides a better estimation accuracy than the PF method. The benefit of the IPF method lies in its ability to provide accuracy related advantages over the PF method since, unlike the PF which depends on the choice of the sampling distribution used to estimate the posterior distribution, the IPF yields an optimum choice of this sampling distribution, which also utilizes the observed data. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated in terms of estimation accuracy, root mean square error, mean absolute error and execution times. |
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1436-3240 1436-3259 |
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CropM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4664 |
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Camacho, C.; Pérez-Barahona, A. |
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Land use dynamics and the environment |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control |
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Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control |
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52 |
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96-118 |
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land use; spatial dynamics; pollution; climate-change; air-pollution; agriculture; instability; allocation; principle; pattern; quality; health; impact |
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This paper builds a benchmark framework to study optimal land use, encompassing land use activities and environmental degradation. We focus on the spatial externalities of land use as drivers of spatial patterns: land is immobile by nature, but local actions affect the whole space since pollution flows across locations resulting in both local and global damages. We prove that the decision maker problem has a solution, and characterize the corresponding social optimum trajectories by means of the Pontryagin conditions. We also show that the existence and uniqueness of time-invariant solutions are not in general guaranteed. Finally, a global dynamic algorithm is proposed in order to illustrate the spatial-dynamic richness of the model. We find that our simple set-up already reproduces a great variety of spatial patterns related to the interaction between land use activities and the environment. In particular, abatement technology turns out to play a central role as pollution stabilizer, allowing the economy to reach a time-invariant equilibrium that can be spatially heterogeneous. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2015-10-09 |
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English |
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0165-1889 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4698 |
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