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Bindi, M. |
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Identification of most important cropping systems and available models |
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2013 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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1 |
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D-C1.1 |
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For each region or agro-ecological zone in Europe the major cropping systems have been identified based on their cropping area. Next, for each of the selected cropping systems the most widely applied models that fulfil a number of criteria (including their documentation in peer reviewed publications; good user guides and documentation of code; source code available) have been identified. Some possible model comparisons have been hypothesized on the basis of cropping systems and model availability. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2253 |
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Hoveid, Ø. |
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Title |
Prototype of stochastic equilibrium model of the food system |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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6 |
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D-T2.5 |
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Food security is an issue of risk. If climate change is not responded to with diet, technology and/or policy changes, it may lead to reduced food security for the world population, in particular the poorer part which in longer periods may not afford to purchase food in sufficient quantity and quality. In order to improve the situation, certain policy changes may be required. In some cases are policy recommendations relatively obvious, while in other cases a deeper insight in the stochastic dynamics of food supply and storage is required to assess the consequences of policy proposals. The relatively obvious part is that farmers need be responsive in periods of low total production, so that sufficient supply restores quickly. Moreover, trade should allow local shortages to be covered. Many national policies with the goal of self-sufficiency aim in the opposite direction with stable prices and production and relatively less flexibility in production. The stochastic dynamics of food supply can be analysed in more detail with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE). Although agriculture by nature is about taking decisions under uncertainty, quantitative stochastic dynamic models for policy analysis in agriculture have not yet emerged. The contribution in MACSUR is a formalization of a class of DSGE-s based on representation of biological processes managed with regard to outcomes due to uncertain nature. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2115 |
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Bishop, J.; Lotze-Campen, H. |
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XC8 Extreme events – Final report |
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2017 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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10 |
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XC8-D |
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Following a MACSUR Workshop a joint working paper preliminary titled “More than a change in crop production: metrics and approaches to understand the impacts of extreme events on food security” is now in an advanced stage. A conference paper based on an M.Sc. thesis by Christoph Buschmann, titled “A model-based economic assessment of future climate variability impacts on global agricultural markets” has been presented and the International Conference of Agricultural Economists, 2015. We are working on a journal publication at the moment. Based on a B.Sc. thesis by Patrick Jeetze, we have submitted an abstract and held a presentation at the GlobalFood Symposium 2017, 28-29 April 2017 at Georg-August-University of Goettingen, Germany. Title: “Implications of future climate variability on food security: A model-based assessment of climate-induced crop price volatility impacts” We are currently working on a journal publication on this. Finally, we contributed one section to MACSUR's Research Gap Report (H0.1-D). |
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XC |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4953 |
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Author |
Ibañez, M. |
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Title |
Ammonia and nitrous oxide emissions from grazing cattle in Kenya |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-27 |
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Fertilized crops and livestock management are the main anthropogenic sources of ammonia (NH3). Ammonia emissions imply a N loss from cropping systems and have negative effects on ecosystems and human health. In Africa, it is believed that a substantial proportion of NH3 emissions results from widespread livestock management, whereas inorganic fertilizers might be of low importance. However, there is a lack of information on the mechanisms underlying the NH3 emissions derived from livestock management. Use of passive sampling approaches may enhance our knowledge on NH3 emissions by allowing systematic ecosystem investigations at a low cost; however, these techniques have not been critically evaluated for the Tropics. The main goals of our study are 1) to assess the livestock influence on the emissions of NH3 in tropical ecosystems and 2) the evaluation of experimental techniques for estimation of NH3 emissions, which could be further implemented in Africa without investment in sophisticated analytical equipment.The study was carried out in October 2014 at the farm of ILRI (Nairobi, Kenya). Ammonia fluxes from a fenced plot occupied by a herd of cows during daytime was estimated by both 1) the micrometeorological mass balance integrated horizontal flux (IHF) method and 2) the Eddy-covariance (EC) technique (using a sonic anemometer and a highly sensitive fast response NH3 trace gas monitor). Passive flux samplers (PFS) internally coated with oxalic acid were installed at different heights in 1 central and 3 background masts. PFS were exchanged every 2 days and NH3 trapped was measured colorimetrically. Soil N2O emissions were also estimated by manual chambers every 48 h along with inorganic N contents in the topsoil.Contrary to our expectations, NH3 cow’s presence did not triggered NH3 emissions. Both IHF and EC showed very low NH3 emission values along the experiment, although sensitivity varied among methods (about 100 and 30 ng NH3 m-2 s-1 as obtained by the IHF method and EC, respectively). Heavy rainfall events (˃120 mm) may be responsible for lowered NH3 volatilization. Low soil nitrate concentrations, (<0.5 mg kg-1), suggested predominant N leaching after rainfall. Soil N2O emissions were negligible, showing a maximum of only 4.5 µg N-N2O m-2 h-1 during the first day. These preliminary results represent the first dataset of NH3 emissions under controlled conditions in tropical Africa, and provide the basis for further assessments of NH3 emissions and evaluations of techniques under different ecosystems and management scenarios. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2142 |
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Author |
Smith, P. |
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Title |
Addressing the joint challenges of climate change and food security |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-65 |
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Feeding 9–10 billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well-being. While supply-side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand-side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand-side measures offer a greater potential (1.5–15.6 Gt CO2-eq. yr-1) in meeting both challenges than do supply-side measures (1.5–4.3 Gt CO2-eq. yr-1 at carbon prices between 20 and 100 US$ tCO2-eq. yr-1), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply-side measures should be implemented immediately, focusing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand-side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to co-deliver to other policy agendas, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2180 |
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