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Schönhart, M. (2015). Analysis of climate change adaptation with bio-economic farm models: lessons from MACSUR regional pilot studies (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Integrated land use models (ILM) featuring agronomic and economic drivers of land use are frequently applied to serve the high information demand of stakeholders. This presentation results from collaboration among bio-economic farm modelers across the MACSUR regional pilot studies (www.macsur.eu) and shall compare and finally reveal good practice examples on the representation of climate change adaptation in bio-economic farm models. First results show a considerable diversity of approaches employed in the MACSUR regional pilot studies. All are programming models that optimize more or less elaborated forms of utility. All consider or plan to consider crop yield impacts from bio-physical crop models based on daily-resolution climate data. While some models include pest and diseases or livestock impacts, none take climate change impacts on market prices or interactions among farms into account so far. Clearly, adaptation options determine the solution space and are mainly expert-based in the regional case studies. Overall, the models are normative and analyze economically rational and optimal land use and management at the farm level, capable of showing the likely direction of differences in future management as a response to exogenous parameter changes (prices, yields, disease pressure, changed policy conditions, etc.). Such detailed models and their results may be applied in stakeholder interaction. Integrating the different direct and indirect effects of climate change, including the policy dimension, is the main contribution of farm level modelling of agricultural systems in the domain of climate change adaptation research. No Label
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Brzezinska, M. (2015). What is a stronger determinant of soil respiration: soil temperature or moisture (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases have led to global warming and climatic changes. Both experimental and modelling studies are necessary to predict and to quantify gas exchange in agroecosystems. We studied the effect of the important environmental factors (soil moisture and temperature) on CO2 emission from agricultural soil (Orthic Luvisol developed from loess) under field and laboratory conditions. In the field experiment (winter wheat, permanent meadow or black fallow), the in situ CO2 efflux form the soil, soil moisture and temperature were measured from April to December 2013. The CO2 efflux was influenced by plant cover (F=7.96; p<0.001), and was related to both, soil temperature (p<0.001) and slightly less by soil moisture (p<0.01). In the second experiment, soil was collected from a depth of 0-10 cm, air-dried, and passed through an 2 mm sieve. Next, soil samples were rewetted to obtain soil moisture in a range from water saturation (pF 0) to plant wilting point (pF 4.2), and incubated at different temperatures (from 5oC to 30oC). Multifactor analysis of variance has shown that the soil respiration, as measured under controlled conditions, was much more affected by soil temperature (F=237.0; p<0.0001), than by soil moisture (F=4.99; p<0.01). No Label
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Ventrella, D. (2015). Climate change impact on green and blue water consumptive use for winter durum wheat and tomato cultivated in Southern Italy (Vol. 5).
Abstract: In this study at regional scale, the model DSSAT was applied in order to simulate the cultivation of winter durum wheat and tomato to estimate the green water and the blue water through a dual-step approach (with and without supplemental irrigation). The model simulation covered a period of 30 years in three scenario including a reference period and two future scenarios based on forecasted global average temperature increase of 2 and 5°C. In this paper GW e BW contribution for evapotranspiration requirement is presented and analyzed on a distributed scale related to Puglia region (Southern Italy) characterized by high evaporative demand of the atmosphere. For winter durum wheat the GW component was predominant compared to BW, covering almost 90% of the ETc of WW. Under Baseline scenario the weight of BW was of 11%, slightly increasing in the future scenarios. After considering the probability the climate change determine an increase of irrigation practice for WW from climatic point of view we carried out an example of analysis in order to verify the economical convenience of supplemental irrigation for WW cultivation. The probability that irrigation has a negative or zero income ranged between 55 and 60% and the climate change did not impact the profitability of irrigation for WW as simulated for the economic and agro-pedoclimatic conditions of Puglia region considered in this study.For tomato, in the baseline and future scenarios affected by global warming, the analysis of ET components showed with strong evidence the importance of irrigation that is confirmed as irreplaceable practice for obtaining sustainable yield from productive and economical point of view.GW and BW, both in the case of wheat and tomato, appeared dependent on the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall during the crop cycle, but also on the hydraulic characteristics of soils corresponding to each calculation unit. No Label
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Palatnik, R. R. (2015). Climate-dependent yields (Vol. 6).
Abstract: In this report we summarize the contributions made by four groups to the subject of climate dependent yields. The first is by Waldemar Bojar, Leszek Knopik, Jacek Zarski, Cezary Slawinski, Piotr Baranowski and Wojciech Zarski on the subject of “the impact of extreme climate changes on the forecasted agriculture production”. It presents general characteristics of resources and outputs of agriculture in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie (K&P) and Lubelskie regions, based on statistical databases and the literature review. In this study, some statistically significant dependencies between the climatic parameters and yields of selected important crops in the abovementioned regions were worked out on the basis of empirical survey conducted in the University of Technology and Life Sciences and Institute of Agrophysics in Lublin. Efforts were taken to make integrated assessments of forecasted agricultural outputs influenced by climate extreme phenomena on the basis of the found dependencies’ yields – precipitation and the data coming from wide area model regional outputs such as prices, areas of farmland and yields. The second contribution is by Bojar W., Knopik L. and Zarski J. on the subject of “integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability to use in food supply forecasting”. It examines the proposals to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods without rain. This model is based on a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. The third contribution is by Iddo Kan on the Vegetative Agricultural Land Use Economic (VALUE) model. It discusses the sub-task with respect to crops of statistically estimating with statistical methods predictions of expected crop-yield contingent on climate, soil and production cost for use in existing trade models, or refined versions thereof, and how VALUE can contribute to this sub-task. The fourth contribution was made by Christoph Muller and Richard D. Robertson on the subject of “projecting future crop productivity for global economic modelling”. It supplies a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. No Label
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Kjeldsen, C. (2015). An approach to sustainability management within partnerships between heterogeneous actors – example from a Danish water catchment, dominated by dairy farms (Vol. 5).
Abstract: In this paper we present an approach to sustainability management within partnerships between heterogenous actors. This multi-disciplinary approach is also relevant for the assessment of climate change adaptation and mitigation in the context of www.macsur.eu; and especially in areas with dairy farming hot-spots. Established approaches within this field such as Adaptive Co-Management and Social Learning focus on social-material interactions, feedback mechanisms, knowledge integration and institutional change as drivers in sustainable development. However, the role of micro-scale power dynamics as part of these processes have received less attention. In a case study of land-water management in a Danish water catchment, dominated by dairy farms, we analyze how dynamics of power within knowledge integration processes interacts with institutions at different scales. Thereby, we show ways in which power-knowledge dynamics shape development outcomes. Finally, we propose how increasing reflexivity of power-knowledge dynamics might contribute to institutional change and sustainable development. No Label
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