Köchy, M., Jorgenson, J., & Braunmiller, K. (2015). Overview of case studies (Vol. 6).
Abstract: MACSUR comprises 18 regional case studies for analysing the effects of climate change on agriculture with integrated inter-disciplinary models. Three case studies in Finland, Austria, and Italy have been selected as pilot studies because of their advancement in integration and representation of European farming systems and regions. No Label
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Schönhart, M. (2016). Uncertainties from Climate Change on Farms and Ecosystem Services of a Grassland Dominated Austrian Landscape (Vol. 9 C6 -).
Abstract: MACSUR 1: development of a method to analysefarm and landscape scale impacts of CC, mitigationand adaptation effects– cropland dominated landscape, crop choice and soilmanagement– climate model uncertainty• Now: test and improve the robustness of the method– grassland landscape, cropland expansion and livestock– uncertainty analysis– variability of weather conditions High spatial resolution creates interfaces to disciplinarymodels and indicators• Challenging data & modelling demand• Increasing productivity can increase intensification pressures• Threatened permanent (extensive) grasslands and landscape elements, but• subject to resource constraints, costs and prices• Future RDP and environmental policy design (e.g. WFD) may need to takechanging productivity into account• Future research: analyze uncertainties & environmentalimpacts• Ensembles of crop and grassland models• Sensitivity analysis on economic input parameters• Qualitative surveys with agricultural experts and farmers
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Semenov, M. (2015). Local-scale climate scenarios based on ensembles of global/regional climate models for regional applications in Europe (Vol. 3).
Abstract: Local-scale climate scenarios based on ensembles of global/regional climate models for regional applications in Europe is a deliverable for WP4 ‘Scenario development and impact uncertainty evaluation’. We developed the integration of 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-ENSEMBLES and CMIP3 projects with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to update ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios, for use in impact assessment studies in Europe. No Label
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Köchy, M. (2015). Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades: Why worry when you have CAP? A workshop for decisionmakers. Workshop Programme (Vol. 6).
Abstract: Local agricultural production is strongly affected by the weather. Climate change is likely to cause increases in extreme weather events, as well as underlying changes in average conditions. If agriculture is to be sustainable and profitable, farmers will need to adapt to these changes. What impacts could climate change have on farming systems across Europe, and how important are they likely to be compared to the impacts of policies?In order to better answer these questions, the FACCE JPI knowledge hub MACSUR, comprising more than 300 researchers in 18 countries, is assessing the current state of the art in the modelling of agricultural systems for food security.At this workshop we invited policymakers and other stakeholders to learn about regional impacts of climate change on European agriculture relative to policies and to inform researchers about the consultation needs of stakeholders. No Label
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Topp, K. (2015). Synergies and trade-offs of adaptation and mitigation on dairy farms (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Livestock farms with ruminants have large and diverse fluxes of greenhouse gases, but are also affected in diverse ways by climate change. This calls for assessments of possible options to mitigate GHG and to adapt to changing climate, primarily at the farm-scale. This study focuses on the effects of adaptation and mitigation options, and their synergies and trade-offs on GHG emissions and production on European dairy farms. The impact of climate change on livestock production systems will vary with livestock type, system design and local conditions. These effects are direct through impacts on animal performance and indirect through effects on crop yield and quality. These impacts demand adaptations of farming systems to cope with the changed climate. Adaptation can be categorized in three main categories: feed, livestock and water management. Several of these adaptation options have impact on greenhouse gas emissions and thus on the mitigation potential. There is therefore need to align measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions with the likely adaptations to be adopted. Based on expert opinion, assessments have been performed on which adaptation and mitigation measures would likely be adopted for real on maritime dairy farms located in Ireland and the Netherlands. No Label
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