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Carter, T. (2015). Scenarios and related data for MACSUR2 Timothy Carter Finnish Environment (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Framing scenario selection (RCP/SSP)Ongoing scenario development in FP7 IMPRESSIONSSome examples of sources of data and scenarios No Label
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Dader, B. (2015). Elevated CO2 impacts bell pepper growth with consequences in the feeding behaviour and performance of the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Future CO2 predictions estimate an increase up to 550 ppm within only few decades away. Among the observed effects on plants, increasing CO2 stimulates growth, reduces stomatal conductance and transpiration, improves water-use efficiency and induces photosynthesis. These changes have an indirect impact on pest biology and behaviour, e.g. altering their population growth or feeding habits.Our first aim was to study the effect of ambient (400 ppm) (aCO2) and elevated CO2 (650 ppm) (eCO2) on pepper (Capsicum annuum L.). Height, leaf area, dry weight and leaf temperature by thermal imaging were measured. Chlorophyll was measured in SPAD units as an indirect indicator of nitrogen foliar content. Peppers under eCO2 were significantly taller although they had the same number of leaves than under aCO2. SPAD was significantly lower under eCO2. Leaf, stem and above-ground dry weight were significantly higher under eCO2. There was a significant decrease in specific leaf area under eCO2. Canopy temperature was 1.2 °C higher under eCO2.Secondly, pepper plants were used to assess the development and fecundity of M. persicae. The pre-reproductive period was 11% longer in eCO2 peppers. Aphids grew significantly slower and produced fewer nymphs under eCO2. Lastly, aphid feeding behaviour was studied using the Electrical Penetration Graph (EPG) technique, which provides a live visualization and recording of plant penetration by aphid mouthparts. EPG results will be presented and discussed. No Label
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Lehtonen, H. (2015). Sector level agricultural development following different adaptations to climate change (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Future crop yields in northern Europe are subject to many factors and uncertainties, according to recent agro-ecological studies. Based on our farm level analysis, we concluded that prices of agricultural products are the primary drivers in the adaptation to climate change. They, as well as the policy conditions, affect the level of fertilization and the use of other inputs, land use and the intensity and the volume of agricultural production. We outlined 5 main scenarios of agricultural adaptation in Finland, and used an agricultural sector model to assess the impacts of the 5 scenarios on total production and land use in the whole country and in its four main regions. In the scenarios with unchanged product prices in the real terms, we find that a small increase or decrease in crop yields is possible. Significantly higher yields would require also 20-30% higher prices of crop products. Our sector modeling results suggest that avoiding decreases in crop yields is important for agricultural income in the long-term, even if livestock production in also maintained by national subsidies. Decreasing yields will result in increasing nutrient surplus and most likely in increased nutrient leaching, while increasing crop yields, even slightly, would significantly decrease nutrient surplus and increase farm income. Significant increases in crop yields and prices, however, are required before production clearly increases in Finland. Interestingly, cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, in the case of high future prices. This is explained by the abundant land resources, as well as the high opportunity cost of labor and policy systems maintaining current livestock production. No Label
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Roggero, P. P. (2016). Managing Agricultural Greenhouse Gases Network (MAGGnet): Exploring Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of Cropland Management Practices (Vol. 9 C6 -).
Abstract: Global Research Alliance on Agricultural Greenhouse Gases Established: December 2009, United Nations Climate Change Conference, Copenhagen, Denmark•Purpose: Facilitate research, development and extension of technologies and practices that will help deliver ways to grow more food (and more climate-resilient food systems) without growing greenhouse gas emissions.•Current Membership: 46 countries (Europe, Americas, Asia Pacific, Africa)
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Leolini, L., Moriondo, M., De Cortazar-Atauri, I., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Nendel, C., Roggero, P. P., et al. (2017). Modelling different cropping systems (Vol. 10).
Abstract: Grapevine is a worldwide valuable crop characterized by a high economic importance for the production of high quality wines. However, the impact of climate change on the narrow climate niches in which grapevine is currently cultivated constitute a great risk for future suitability of grapevine. In this context, grape simulation models are considered promising tools for their contribution to investigate plant behavior in different environments. In this study, six models developed for simulating grapevine growth and development were tested by focusing on their performances in simulating main grapevine processes under two calibration levels: minimum and full calibration. This would help to evaluate major limitations/strength points of these models, especially in the view of their application to climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Preliminary results from two models (GrapeModel and STICS) showed contrasting abilities in reproducing the observed data depending on the site, the year and the target variable considered. These results suggest that a limited dataset for model calibration would lead to poor simulation outputs. However, a more complete interpretation and detailed analysis of the results will be provided when considering the other models simulations.
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