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Author Rodriguez, A.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Palosuo, T.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Lorite, I.J.; Ferrise, R.; Pirttioja, N.; Bindi, M.; Baranowski, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Chen, Y.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Hoffmann, H.; Hohn, J.G.; Jurecka, F.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lana, M.; Mechiche-Alami, A.; Minet, J.; Montesino, M.; Nendel, C.; Porter, J.R.; Ruget, F.; Semenov, M.A.; Steinmetz, Z.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; de Wit, A.; Roetter, R.P. doi  openurl
  Title Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations Type Journal Article
  Year 2019 Publication Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Abbreviated Journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology  
  Volume 264 Issue Pages 351-362  
  Keywords Wheat adaptation; Uncertainty; Climate change; Decision support; Response surface; Outcome confidence; Climate-Change Impacts; Response Surfaces; Wheat; Uncertainty; Yield; Simulation; 21St-Century; Productivity; Temperature; Projections  
  Abstract unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised. Moreover, results and derived recommendations typically rely on averaged ensemble simulation results without accounting sufficiently for the spread of model outcomes. Therefore, we developed an Ensemble Outcome Agreement (EOA) index, which analyses the effect of changes in composition and size of a multi-model ensemble (MME) to evaluate the level of agreement between MME outcomes with respect to a given hypothesis (e.g. that adaptation measures result in positive crop responses). We analysed the recommendations of a previous study performed with an ensemble of 17 crop models and testing 54 adaptation options for rainfed winter wheat (Triticum aestivwn L.) at Lleida (NE Spain) under perturbed conditions of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our results confirmed that most adaptations recommended in the previous study have a positive effect. However, we also showed that some options did not remain recommendable in specific conditions if different ensembles were considered. Using EOA, we were able to identify the adaptation options for which there is high confidence in their effectiveness at enhancing yields, even under severe climate perturbations. These include substituting spring wheat for winter wheat combined with earlier sowing dates and standard or longer duration cultivars, or introducing supplementary irrigation, the latter increasing EOA values in all cases. There is low confidence in recovering yields to baseline levels, although this target could be attained for some adaptation options under moderate climate perturbations. Recommendations derived from such robust results may provide crucial information for stakeholders seeking to implement adaptation measures.  
  Address 2019-01-07  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title (down)  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0168-1923 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5214  
Permanent link to this record
 
 
Author Rötter, R.P.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Basso, B.; Ruane, A.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.; Brisson, N.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Pertuzzi; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Müller, C.; Kumar, S.N.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J. url  openurl
  Title Quantifying Uncertainties in Modeling Crop Water Use under Climate Change Type Conference Article
  Year 2013 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords CropM  
  Abstract  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title (down)  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference Impacts World 2013, International Conference on Climate Change Effects, Potsdam, Germany, 2013-05-27 to 2013-05-30  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2767  
Permanent link to this record
 
 
Author Rötter, P.; Palosuo, T.; Semenov, M.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Tao, F.; Fronzek, S.; Pirttioja, K.; Bindi, M.; Carter, R.; Hoffmann, H.; Höhn, J.; Kersebaum, C.; Trnka, M. openurl 
  Title Designing new cereal cultivars as an adaptation measure using crop model ensembles Type Conference Article
  Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords CropM  
  Abstract  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title (down)  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop: Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security, Oslo, Norway, 2014-02-10 to 2014-02-12  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2768  
Permanent link to this record
 
 
Author Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.K.; Palosuo, T.; Kassie, B.T.; Paff, K.; Tao, F.; Chen, Y.; Asseng, S.; et al. openurl 
  Title Yield gap and variability analysis for different aro-technologies for maize and wheat (YGV study) Type Conference Article
  Year 2015 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords CropM;  
  Abstract  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Ithaca (U.S.A.) Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title (down)  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference 2nd Global Food Security Conference, 2015-10-10- to 2015-10-15, Ithaca  
  Notes Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2770  
Permanent link to this record
 
 
Author Tao, F.; Zhang, Z.; Zhang, S.; Rötter, R.P.; Shi, W.; Xiao, D.; Liu, Y.; Wang, M.; Liu, F.; Zhang, H. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Historical data provide new insights into response and adaptation of maize production systems to climate change/variability in China Type Journal Article
  Year 2016 Publication Field Crops Research Abbreviated Journal Field Crops Research  
  Volume 185 Issue Pages 1-11  
  Keywords china; climate variability; grain yield; impact; maize; northeast china; tropical maize; wheat yields; heat-stress; crop yields; temperature; impacts; sensitivities; hybrids; trends  
  Abstract Extensive studies had been conducted to investigate the impacts of climate change on maize growth and yield in recent decades; however, the dynamics of crop husbandry in response and adaptation to climate change were not taken into account. Based on field observations spanning from 1981 to 2009 at 167 agricultural meteorological stations across China, we found that solar radiation and temperature over the observed maize growth period had decreasing trends during 1981-2009, and maize yields were positively correlated with these climate variables in major production regions. The decreasing trends in solar radiation and temperature during maize growth period were mainly ascribed to the adoption of late maturity cultivars with longer reproductive growth period (RGP). The adoption of late maturing cultivars with longer RGP contributed substantially to grain yield increase during the last three decades. The climate trends during maize growth period varied among different production areas. During 1981-2009, decreases in mean temperature, precipitation and solar radiation over maize growth period jointly reduced yield most by 13.2-17.3% in southwestern China, by contrast in northwestern China increases in mean temperature, precipitation and solar radiation jointly increased yield most by 12.9-14.4%. Our findings highlight that the adaptations of maize production system to climate change through shifts of sowing date and genotypes are underway and should be taken into accounted when evaluating climate change impacts. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title (down)  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0378-4290 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4816  
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