Dibari, C., Argenti, G., Catolfi, F., Moriondo, M., Staglianò, N., & Bindi, M. (2014). Climate change impacts on natural pasturelands of Italian Apennines. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: As well as the entire Mediterranean area, the Italian Apennines have been affected by increasing temperatures, rainfall extreme events and decreases in annual precipitation due to climate change. Moreover, permanent grasslands, species-diverse ecosystems characterizing the marginal areas of the Apennines landscape, are acknowledged as very sensitive and vulnerable to climate variation. Building on these premises, statistical classification models coupled with data integration by GIS techniques, were used to territorially assess future climate change impacts on pastoral communities on the Italian Apennines chain. Specifically, a machine learning approach (Random Forest – RF), firstly calibrated for the present period and then applied to future conditions, as projected by HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM), was used to simulate potential expansion/reduction and/or altitudinal shifts of the Apennine pasturelands in two time slices, centred on 2050 and 2080, under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. RF classification model proved to be robust and very efficient to predict lands suited to pastures with regards to present period (classification error: 12%). Furthermore, according to RF simulations, relevant reductions (46 and 34%) of areas potentially suitable for pastoral resource are expected under A2 at the middle and end of the century, respectively, as depicted by the GCM and SRES scenarios. Moreover, progressive upwards shifts are predicted by the model under both SRES scenarios. These reductions will likely interest the central area of the chain threatening the typical and unique herbaceous biodiversity characterizing the Apennine pasturelands.
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Audsley, E. (2014). CLIMSAVE interactive platform for climate change impacts in Europe. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Describe the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform showing the scope of models, inputs and outputs available. Present the results from applying the IAP for the six scenarios on the regional case study regions. Describe the new aims of the follow-on IMPRESSIONS project.
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Krzyszczak, J. R., Baranowski, P., & Sławiński, C. (2014). CO2 flux measurements in the vegetation period of winter wheat in Lubelskie province. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The assessment of net ecosystem exchange and respiration of ecosystem of terrestrial ecosystems is necessary to improve our knowledge about carbon cycle in nature. Here we present measurements of CO2 fluxes for a winter wheat temperate climate ecosystem (buckwheat in the previous years) located in the Lubelskie province (eastern Poland) using a closed dynamic chamber system over a 2013 vegetation season. Measurements of carbon dioxide emission from soils and its assimilation by plants were carried out on a typical for Lubelskie highland arable land located in the Stany Nowe (N50o49’17.0555”, E22o16’28.51”, height 243m above sea level) using the set of two chambers (transparent and dark). Carbon dioxide fluxes have been measured by EGM-4 PP Systems sensor during fixed stages of the plant growing season. During the experiment carbon emission from soil ranged from 151 to 764 mg C·m-2·h-1 and its assimilation by plants ranged from -148 (emission) to 1585 mg C·m-2·h-1. We found substantial differences in emission and assimilation of carbon in the winter wheat ecosystem. This, along with other measurements (meteorological factors and soil and plant parameters) carried out in the Stany Nowe can be used as a high quality data to verify various models of emission of greenhouse gases. The chamber technique occurs to be a useful tool for determining carbon dioxide exchange between ecosystem surface and the atmosphere.
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Roggero, P. P., Seddaiu, G., Ledda, L., Doro, L., Deligios, P., Nguyen, T. P. L., et al. (2014). Combining modeling and stakeholder involvement to build community adaptive responses to climate change in a Mediterranean agricultural district. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: The case study area (54,000 ha) is located at Oristano, Italy. The main cropping systems are based on forages (silage maize, Italian ryegrass and alfalfa under irrigation, winter cereals and grasslands under rainfed conditions), rainfed cereals (durum wheat, barley), vegetables (e.g. artichokes), rice, citrus, olives and vineyards. Some 36,000 ha are served by irrigation. The area includes the dairy cows cooperative system of Arborea (30,000 cows, 5500 ha, nitrate vulnerable zone). The rainfed dairy sheep includes 372,000 sheep and a number of small milk processing plants. The research aims to support adaptive responses to climate change through the combination of modeling approaches and stakeholder engagement. Present (2000-2010) and future (2020-2030) climatic scenarios were developed by combining global climate models with Regional Atmospheric Modelling Systems to produce calibrated time series of daily temperature and precipitation for the case study. The EPIC model was calibrated to simulate the impact of climate scenarios on the main cropping systems. The impact of THIndex on milk yield, milk quality and mortality was also simulated for dairy cows. A territorial farm-type Discrete Stochastic Programming model was implemented to simulate choices for thirteen farming typologies as influenced by crop yields and water consumptions. Participatory activities, including field experiments, interviews, focus groups and interactive workshops, involved farmers and other stakeholders in the most critical phases of the research. The assessment of uncertainties and opportunities were proposed as a basis for discussion with policy makers to identify priorities for agro-climatic measures in 2014-2020.
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Barnes, A., Shrestha, S., Thomson, S., Toma, L., Mathews, K., & Sutherland, L. A. (2014). Comparing visions for CAP reforms post 2015: Farmer intentions and farm bio-economic modelling. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: This paper illustrates the impacts of two of the potential CAP reform post 2015 scenarios using an optimising farm level model and compares results with farmers’ perception about the policy changes, captured in a farmer intentions survey. The model results suggest that beef farms suffer a loss in farm net margins under fully decoupled (up to -21%) as well as under partially decoupled scenario (up to -19%) compared to current historical single farm payments. The model also shows that farm respond by reducing the number of beef animals on farm by up to 5%. However, under a partial decoupled scenario, beef farms increase calf numbers by 15% to benefit from coupled calf payment. A survey of 1,400 beef producers with respect to their intentions toward 2020 was conducted in the Summer of 2013. A set of hypothetical payment scenarios was used to test self-reported response to a number of scenarios related to expanding and extensifying. These were compared with the modelling results and found a range of responses which could, we argue, be used for future calibration and ‘sense-checking’ of results within future modelling strategies.
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