| Records |
| Author |
Sieber, S.; Amjath-Babu, T.S.; Jansson, T.; Müller, K.; Tscherning, K.; Graef, F.; Pohle, D.; Helming, K.; Rudloff, B.; Saravia-Matus, B.S.; Gomez y Paloma, S. |
| Title |
Sustainability impact assessment using integrated meta-modelling: Simulating the reduction of direct support under the EU common agricultural policy (CAP) |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Land Use Policy |
Abbreviated Journal  |
Land Use Policy |
| Volume |
33 |
Issue |
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Pages |
235-245 |
| Keywords |
SIAT; CAP; sustainability; impact assessment; land use change; trade off analysis; model; Netherlands; systems |
| Abstract |
Assessing the impact of macro-level policy driven land use changes on regional sustainability is an important task that can facilitate complex decision making processes of introducing reforms. The research work demonstrates the ability of Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT), a meta-model, in conducting ex ante spatially explicit cross sectoral impact assessments of changes in common agricultural policy (CAP). The meta-model is able to appraise impacts of CAP amendments on land use and their repercussions on multiple indicators of sustainability. The presented study comprehensively analyses the possible impacts of discontinuing direct financial support to farmers under CAP. The simulations of the meta-model are able to reveal the land use changes both at EU and regional levels as well as to bring forth the subsequent changes in a number of indicators representing the regional sustainability (for five case study regions). In a nutshell, the simulations indicate that a reduction in direct support brings in general, a decrease in farmed area, an increase in forested land, less fluctuation in natural vegetation coverage, increase in abandoned arable land area and negligible changes in built-up area despite regionally diverging land use trends. The simulated changes in sustainability indicators for the study regions in consequence to these land use changes show that the discontinuation of subsidies evokes responses that are in general climate friendly (reduction in methane and N2O emissions, diminishing energy use and reduction in global warming potential), economically beneficial (increase in gross value of agriculture) and socially desired (decrease in unemployment rate) as well as environmentally harmful (increase in pesticide use). Even though the appraisals of diversity indicators such as forest deadwood and farmland birds are not conclusive for all regions, the changes are positive for the former indicator and slightly negative for the latter in general. The trade-offs among these regional sustainability indicators using their directional associations are also presented for a comprehensive assessment of the impacts. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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English |
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0264-8377 |
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TradeM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4479 |
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| Author |
Kros, J.; Bakker, M.M.; Reidsma, P.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Jamal Alam, S.; de Vries, W. |
| Title |
Impacts of agricultural changes in response to climate and socioeconomic change on nitrogen deposition in nature reserves |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Landscape Ecology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Landscape Ecol. |
| Volume |
30 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
871-885 |
| Keywords |
Agricultural adaptation; Climate change; Land use change; Environmental; impact; Farming system; Nitrogen losses; netherlands; diversity; scenario |
| Abstract |
This paper describes the environmental consequences of agricultural adaptation on eutrophication of the nearby ecological network for a study area in the Netherlands. More specifically, we explored (i) likely responses of farmers to changes in climate, technology, policy, and markets; (ii) subsequent changes in nitrogen (N) emissions in responses to farmer adaptations; and (iii) to what extent the emitted N was deposited in nearby nature reserves, in view of the potential impacts on plant species diversity and desired nature targets. For this purpose, a spatially-explicit study at landscape level was performed by integrating the environmental model INITIATOR, the farm model FSSIM, and the land-use model RULEX. We evaluated two alternative scenarios of change in climate, technology, policy, and markets for 2050: one in line with a ‘global economy’ (GE) storyline and the other in line with a ‘regional communities’ (RC) storyline. Results show that the GE storyline resulted in a relatively strong increase in agricultural production compared to the RC storyline. Despite the projected conversions of agricultural land to nature (as part of the implementation of the National Ecological Network), we project an increase in N losses and N deposition due to N emissions in the study area of about 20 %. Even in the RC storyline, with a relatively modest increase in agricultural production and a larger expansion of the nature reserve, the N losses and deposition remain at the current level, whereas a reduction is required. We conclude that more ambitious green policies are needed in view of nature protection. |
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0921-2973 1572-9761 |
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CropM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4565 |
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Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Drews, M.; Halsnaes, K.; Jeppesen, E.; Madsen, H.; Markandya, A.; Olesen, J.E.; Porter, J.R.; Christensen, J.H. |
| Title |
The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies – a Danish water management example |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change |
| Volume |
18 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
337-359 |
| Keywords |
Climate change; Adaptation; Uncertainty; Risk; Water sectors; Multi-disciplinary; change impacts; global change; winter-wheat; models; scenarios; ensembles; denmark; vulnerability; community; knowledge |
| Abstract |
We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue and knowledge sharing between the different stakeholders; and (iii) aleatory uncertainty is, by its nature, non-reducible. The uncertainty cascade includes many sources and their propagation through technical and socio-economic models may add substantially to prediction uncertainties, but they may also cancel each other. Thus, even large uncertainties may have small consequences for decision making, because multiple sources of information provide sufficient knowledge to justify action in climate change adaptation. |
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1381-2386 1573-1596 |
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| Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4613 |
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Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, J.L.; Ruane, A.C.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.J.; Rötter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J. |
| Title |
Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
| Volume |
3 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
827-832 |
| Keywords |
crop production; models; food; co2; temperature; projections; adaptation; scenarios; ensemble; impacts |
| Abstract |
Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain(1). Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate(2). However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models(1,3) are difficult(4). Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking. |
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1758-678x |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur, IPCC-AR5 |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4599 |
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Trnka, M.; Rötter, R.P.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Žalud, Z.; Semenov, M.A. |
| Title |
Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Nature Climate Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Nat. Clim. Change |
| Volume |
4 |
Issue |
7 |
Pages |
637-643 |
| Keywords |
scenarios; increase; models; variability; responses; extremes; impacts; shifts |
| Abstract |
Europe is the largest producer of wheat, the second most widely grown cereal crop after rice. The increased occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme agroclimatic events are considered a major threat for wheat production. We present an analysis that accounts for a range of adverse weather events that might significantly affect wheat yield in Europe. For this purpose we analysed changes in the frequency of the occurrence of 11 adverse weather events. Using climate scenarios based on the most recent ensemble of climate models and greenhouse gases emission estimates, we assessed the probability of single and multiple adverse events occurring within one season. We showed that the occurrence of adverse conditions for 14 sites representing the main European wheat-growing areas might substantially increase by 2060 compared to the present (1981-2010). This is likely to result in more frequent crop failure across Europe. This study provides essential information for developing adaptation strategies. |
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English |
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1758-678x 1758-6798 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4545 |
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