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Author |
Montesino-San Martín, M.; Olesen, J.E.; Porter, J.R. |
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Title  |
A genotype, environment and management (GxExM) analysis of adaptation in winter wheat to climate change in Denmark |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Volume |
187 |
Issue |
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Pages |
1-13 |
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Keywords |
Winter wheat; Climate change; Adaptation; Uncertainty; Europe; food security; model hadgem1; physical-properties; regional climate; change impacts; field-scale; land-use; yield; nitrogen; variability |
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Abstract |
Wheat yields in Europe have shown stagnating trends during the last two decades, partly attributed to climate change. Such developments challenge the needs for increased production, in particular at higher latitudes, to meet increasing global demands and expected productivity reductions at lower latitudes. Climate change projections from three General Circulation Models or GCMs (UKMO-HadGEM1, INM-GM3.0 and CSIRO-Mk3.1) for the A1FI SIZES emission scenario for 2000 to 2100 were downscaled at a northern latitude location (Foulum, Denmark) using LARS-WG5.3. The scenarios accounted for changes in temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration. In addition, three temperature-variability scenarios were included assuming different levels of decreased temperature variability in winter and increased in summer. Crop yield was simulated for the different climate change scenarios by a calibrated version of AFRCWHEAT2 to model several combinations of genotypes (varying in crop growth, development and tolerance to water and nitrogen scarcity) and management (sowing dates and nitrogen fertilization rate). The simulations showed a slight improvement of grain yields (0.3-1.2 Mg ha(-1)) in the medium-term (2030-2050), but not enough to cope with expected increases in demand for food and feed. Optimum management added up to 1.8 Mg ha(-1). Genetic modifications regarding winter wheat crop development exhibit the greatest sensitivity to climate and larger potential for improvement (+3.8 Mg ha(-1)). The results consistently points towards need for cultivars with a longer reproductive phases (2.9-7.5% per 1 degrees C) and lower photoperiod sensitivities. Due to the positive synergies between several genotypic characteristics, multiple-target breeding programmes would be necessary, possibly assisted by model-based assessments of optimal phenotypic characteristics. |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4630 |
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Author |
Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of the Royal Society Interface |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. R. Soc. Interface |
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Volume |
12 |
Issue |
112 |
Pages |
20150721 |
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Keywords |
climate change; extreme events; food security; winter wheat |
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Abstract |
Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. |
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2016-10-31 |
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1742-5689 1742-5662 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4819 |
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Author |
Ventrella, D.; Charfeddine, M.; Moriondo, M.; Rinaldi, M.; Bindi, M. |
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Title |
Agronomic adaptation strategies under climate change for winter durum wheat and tomato in southern Italy: irrigation and nitrogen fertilization |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Regional Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Reg Environ Change |
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12 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
407-419 |
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Keywords |
Modelling; Climate change; Agronomic adaptation strategies; Yield; Tomato; Winter durum wheat; air co2 enrichment; change scenarios; cropping systems; change impacts; simulation; agriculture; variability; increase; model; responses; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
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Agricultural crops are affected by climate change due to the relationship between crop development, growth, yield, CO2 atmospheric concentration and climate conditions. In particular, the further reduction in existing limited water resources combined with an increase in temperature may result in higher impacts on agricultural crops in the Mediterranean area than in other regions. In this study, the cropping system models CERES-Wheat and CROPGRO-Tomato of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) were used to analyse the response of winter durum wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) crops to climate change, irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer managements in one of most productive areas of Italy (i.e. Capitanata, Puglia). For this analysis, three climatic datasets were used: (1) a single dataset (50 km x 50 km) provided by the JRC European centre for the period 1975-2005; two datasets from HadCM3 for the IPCC A2 GHG scenario for time slices with +2A degrees C (centred over 2030-2060) and +5A degrees C (centred over 2070-2099), respectively. All three datasets were used to generate synthetic climate series using a weather simulator (model LARS-WG). Adaptation strategies, such as irrigation and N fertilizer managements, have been investigated to either avoid or at least reduce the negative impacts induced by climate change impacts for both crops. Warmer temperatures were primarily shown to accelerate wheat and tomato phenology, thereby resulting in decreased total dry matter accumulation for both tomato and wheat under the +5A degrees C future climate scenario. Under the +2A degrees C scenario, dry matter accumulation and resulting yield were also reduced for tomato, whereas no negative yield effects were observed for winter durum wheat. In general, limiting the global mean temperature change of 2A degrees C, the application of adaptation strategies (irrigation and nitrogen fertilization) showed a positive effect in minimizing the negative impacts of climate change on productivity of tomato cultivated in southern Italy. |
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1436-3798 1436-378x |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4480 |
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Author |
Ventrella, D.; Charfeddine, M.; Giglio, L.; Castellini, M. |
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Title |
Application of DSSAT models for an agronomic adaptation strategy under climate change in Southern of Italy: optimum sowing and transplanting time for winter durum wheat and tomato |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Italian Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ital. J. Agron. |
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Volume |
7 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
16 |
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Keywords |
DSSAT model; climate change; winter durum wheat; tomato; sowing time; transplanting time |
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Abstract |
Many climate change studies have been carried out in different parts of the world to assess climate change vulnerability and adaptation capacity of agricultural crops for certain environments characterized from climatic, pedological and agronomical point of view. The objective of this study was to analyse the productive response of winter durum wheat and tomato to climate change and sowing/transplanting time in one of the most productive areas of Italy (i.e. Capitanata, Puglia), using CERES-Wheat and CROPGRO cropping system models. Three climatic datasets were used: i) a single dataset (50 km x 50 km) provided by the JRC European centre for the period 1975- 2005; two datasets from HadCM3 for the IPCC A2 GHG scenario for time slices with +2°C (centred over 2030-2060) and +5°C (centred over 2070-2099), respectively. All three datasets were used to generate synthetic climate series using a weather simulator (model LARS-WG). No negative yield effects of climate change were observed for winter durum wheat with delayed sowing (from 330 to 345 DOY) increasing the average dry matter grain yield under forecasted scenarios. Instead, the warmer temperatures were primarily shown to accelerate the phenology, resulting in decreased yield for tomato under the + 5°C future climate scenario. In general, under global temperature increase by 5°C, early transplanting times could minimize the negative impact of climate change on crop productivity but the intensity of this effect was not sufficient to restore the current production levels of tomato cultivated in southern Italy. |
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2016-10-31 |
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2039-6805 1125-4718 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4821 |
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Author |
Höglind, M.; Thorsen, S.M.; Semenov, M.A. |
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Title |
Assessing uncertainties in impact of climate change on grass production in Northern Europe using ensembles of global climate models |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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170 |
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103-113 |
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Keywords |
climatic variability; frost damage; grass modelling; ice damage; multi-model ensemble; elevated co2 concentration; phleum-pratense l; timothy regrowth; change scenarios; winter survival; meadow fescue; crop yields; growth; frost; temperature |
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Forage-based dairy and livestock production is the backbone of agriculture in Northern Europe in economic terms. Changes in growing conditions that affect forage grass yield may have great economic consequences. This study assessed the impact of climate change on two grass species, timothy and ryegrass, at 14 locations in Northern Europe (Iceland, Scandinavia, Baltic countries) in a near-future scenario (2040-2065) compared with the baseline period 1960-1990. Local-scale climate scenarios were based on the CMIP3 multi-model ensembles of 15 global climate models in order to quantify the uncertainty in the impacts relating to highly uncertain projections of future climate. Potential yield of timothy, the most important perennial forage grass in Northern Europe, was simulated under the assumption of optimal overwintering conditions and current CO2 level, in order to obtain an estimate of the effect of changes in summer climate per se. The risk of frost and ice damage during winter was also assessed. The simulation results demonstrated that potential grass yield will increase throughout the study area, mainly as a result of increased growing temperatures. The yield response to climate change was slightly larger in irrigated than non-irrigated conditions (14% and 11%, respectively), due to larger water deficit for the 2050 scenario. However, a geo-climatic gradient was evident, with the largest predicted yield response at western locations. A geo-climatic gradient was also revealed with respect to potential frost damage, which was predicted to increase during winter in some areas east of the Baltic Sea for timothy, and for a larger number of locations both east and west of the Baltic Sea for perennial ryegrass. The risk of frost damage in spring was predicted to increase mainly in western parts of the study area. If frost damage to perennial ryegrass increases during winter, the expected increase in winter temperature due to global warming may not necessarily improve overwintering conditions, so the growing zone may not necessarily expand to the north and east of the study area by 2050. The uncertainty in impacts was frequently, but not consistently, greater in western than eastern locations. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0168-1923 |
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CropM, LiveM, ftnotmacsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4492 |
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